Wednesday Jul.21, 2021

💉 Moderna joins the big leagues

_The Post-Couch era is coming [THEPALMER/E+ via GettyImages]_
_The Post-Couch era is coming [THEPALMER/E+ via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Because baby showers weren't enough, people are now throwing "business showers" for their new ventures. Congratulations, it's an LLC.

Stocks rebounded hard yesterday after Monday's major plunge.

500

Moderna joins the S&P 500 after its Covid vax success — but its real power is the platform

Happened mRN-ASAP... Today, Moderna joined the prestigious S&P 500 index. The "Club 500" membership gives the 11-year-old biotech some serious Wall Street cred. Trillions of dollars are invested in funds that mirror the S&P 500 index, which tracks the 500 most valuable US public companies.

  • Investors use the S&P 500 as an indicator for how the overall market is doing, and can invest in S&P-tracking funds, which include a combo of every stock in the index.
  • Fund managers now have to buy Moderna stock to track the index, so Moderna shares have popped 18% since the S&P news broke on Thursday. But S&P-joining rallies (if they happen), don't necessarily last long.

Major booster shot... Pre-pandemic, Moderna was a little-known biotech startup worth $6B — with zero products on the market. In May 2020, Moderna was a $27B biotech working on a Covid vax — still, with zero products. Today, Moderna is a household name worth $123B, and its Covid vaccine has been injected into the arms of 63M Americans.

  • Fresh profits: In May, Moderna revealed a whopping $1.2B profit on $1.7B in vax sales — its first profit ever.
  • Fresh tech: Pfizer's and Moderna's Covid vaccines were the first mRNA vaccines ever approved for humans. Unlike OG vaccines which use weakened viruses to prompt immunity, mRNA vaxes teach cells to destroy viruses. Intense.
  • Fresh pipeline: Moderna's pipeline includes mRNA vaccines for 10 viruses that are in, or nearing, human trials.

The power lies in the platform... Moderna's investor presentation leads with: "mRNA is a platform." The Covid vax is a billboard for Moderna's cutting-edge platform, which could enable it to churn out all kinds of mRNA vaccines and therapeutics in "record time." 80+ viruses have been discovered since 1980 — but you can only get vaccinated against three of those. Moderna's working on mRNA vax shots for the flu, Zika, HIV, and even cancer. But it faces plenty of risks, including unsuccessful trials and challenges with its new tech.

Spin

Peloton races into the video game biz as corona-conomy winners lose momentum

Grand Theft Spin Bike... Doesn't roll off the tongue. Peloton is getting into gaming. The spin icon is launching an in-app video game called "Lanebreak" (ETA: early 2022). So far, it's looking like a car wheel on a Guitar Hero chord. The rhythm-based game features a personal avatar, which you can move through tracks and obstacles to score rewards. Think: notching up your resistance to the tune of "Eye of the Tiger," or challenging capspin_america on Level 4.

Turn down the torque... Corona-conomy thrivers are starting to sweat. Netflix reported yesterday that it added 1.5M paid subscribers last quarter — less than the 4M it added in the previous quarter, and waaay less than the 16M it added in the first quarter of 2020 (aka: peak lockdown). Pandemic-thriver Peloton could see a similar slowdown.

  • Peloton saw explosive growth mid-pandemic, as its $2K spin bikes flew off shelves. That could end now that Soul Cycle studios and gyms are back with IRL sweating.
  • Not just Equinox: The at-home competition is fierce for both Peloton and Netflix, as rivals multiplied and grew during the pandemic.
  • A few Peloton competitors: Mirror, Tempo, Zwift, Echelon, and iFit, which is reportedly eyeing an IPO. Netflix competitors: anything that ends with "+."

The Post-Couch Era demands innovation... Pandemic thrivers like Peloton and Zoom need to compete with IRL activities — and with a fresh crop of "couch era" rivals that bulked up during lockdown. That competition requires innovation in order to retain and grow customers. That's why Netflix just announced it's also adding video games to its streaming subscriptions, and why Zoom is launching Zoom-as-a-Service.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Firsts: Jeff Bezos completed his 10-minute Blue Origin spaceflight, along with the oldest person ever to fly to space (Wally Funk, 82), and the youngest (Oliver Daemen, 18).
  • Cryptic: Crypto derivatives exchange FTX raised the largest private round in crypto history, with a $900M fundraise at an $18B valuation.
  • DOJ'd: President Biden will nominate Google critic Jonathan Kanter to lead the DOJ's Antitrust Division.
  • Guac: Chipotle smashed earnings expectations as dine-in customers returned in droves. Digital orders made up nearly half the burrito legend's sales.
  • Credit: Top US banking regulators plan to modernize rules governing how banks lend hundreds of billions annually to lower-income communities.
  • Buffet: Carnival stock popped 7% after it announced plans to resume guest cruises with 75% of its capacity by year’s end.

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola, United Airlines, and Verizon

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Moderna

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No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales