Stim

What’s in the big $1.9T stimulus (and what’s in it for the economy)

Snacks / Wednesday, February 10, 2021
_The Stimulus Trilogy_
_The Stimulus Trilogy_

Call it a trilogy... The third of the "stimuli" is coming. In March 2020, we got a massive $2T rescue package (feat. $1.2K checks for most Americans). In December, we got a $900B package to tide us over (feat. $600 checks). Now, Congress is closing in on a $1.9T stimulus. House Dems released some juicy deets yesterday:

  • $1.4K payments to individuals making up to $75K/year (and $150K for married couples). Payments get smaller after those thresholds, and individuals who make $100K+ get nada.
  • $400/week unemployment insurance payments through August 29th.
  • ETA: The goal is to get this through the full House later this month (Congress is busy with Trump's impeachment trial).

Why now... The stock market is at record highs thanks to low interest rates, strong tech earnings, and this upcoming stimulus. But the US economy isn't doing so hot: in January, the economy added only 49K jobs — and the unemployment rate barely budged, falling to 6.3%. That’s still a big improvement from April, when unemployment hit 14.7% after the US lost ~22M jobs. Buuuut...

  • 10.1M Americans are still unemployed, at a rate that’s nearly double pre-pandemic levels. This has especially hurt women of color, who disproportionately work in "essential" industries. To make things worse...
  • The pace of recovery has slowed each month since June. And some of the improvement is coming from people dropping out of the labor force (they aren't counted as unemployed).
  • 2.3M+ women have dropped out of the labor force since February 2020, compared to ~1.8M men. Women’s labor force participation is at its lowest level since 1988, partly because of child care needs.

This is (hopefully) the final stretch... but it might be the longest and toughest in the road to recovery. It’s getting harder each month for the US economy to gain back jobs, and it could be even harder to bring back people who dropped out. And GDP is taking a hit: the US economy shrank 3.5% in 2020, the largest shrinkage in 74 years. On the upside, GDP is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021 (thanks partly to stimulus spending). But employment isn’t expected to bounce back for several years.

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