Friday Mar.10, 2023

🌮 “Perk-cession” problems

So long, ping-pong (Kim Kulish/Getty Images)
So long, ping-pong (Kim Kulish/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

There’s a rally happening and it’s not in stocks: boxes of the newest Girl Scouts cookie flavor, Raspberry Rally, are being resold for up to 5X their usual price. Is there a Supply and Demand merit badge?

Stocks sank yesterday after weekly jobless claims suggested the labor market was still hot ahead of today’s big February jobs report. Investors now think the Fed will next raise rates by 50 basis points, up from expectations of 25 last week.

Perky

The “perk-cession” has landed: companies are cutting back on employee benefits as profit takes precedence

Farewell, unlimited kombucha tap… and free post-meeting Pilates. As corporations prioritize cost cuts, cushy employee perks that’ve long been used to attract talent are vanishing faster than tortillas at a build-your-own-taco happy hour. From Silicon Valley’s tech titans to Wall Street’s banking walruses, the “perk-cession” has arrived, The Wall Street Journal reports.

  • Companies are slashing benefits like barista-brewed coffee, fitness classes, pet insurance, extra PTO days, and catered meals.

  • Some examples: Meta ended free laundry and dry cleaning, Salesforce canceled its wellness retreat, and Goldman Sachs nixed free cabs to the office.

  • Not just the fun stuff… About half of US companies plan to cut benefits like parental leave, childcare subsidies, and adoption programs, a new survey suggested.

Hard fork… The perk-cession comes after mass layoffs at companies that are scaling back after hyper growth during the pandemic. Meta, famous for its cushy office perks, slashed 11K employees in the biggest layoff of the year so far. Beyond tech, banks like Goldman and Citi and manufacturers like GM and Ford have announced reductions.

  • But the US job market is historically hot: In January there were nearly two open roles for each available worker, and unemployment was just 3.4%.

  • Unbalanced: But that’s largely thanks to the hospitality industry (think: hotels, restaurants), which became the US’s fastest-growing employer.

Perk-cession is a symptom… of the efficiency bug. Instead of growth at all costs, the focus for many companies is now profit at less cost — which means “efficiency” is key. And ping-pong tables don’t exactly scream efficiency. Disappearing perks and layoffs are just a few symptoms of the profit focus, which could translate to better returns for investors. Meta shares popped after Zuck announced 2023 was the company’s “year of efficiency.”

Cargo

Uber may spin off its truck-focused freight biz as the lockdown logistics boom cools

Roadblock ahead… Uber is reportedly considering spinning off its freight division as the trucking industry hits some bumps. The ride-hailing leader launched Uber Freight in 2017, connecting semitruck drivers with companies that make high-volume deliveries (think: a truck full of Pepsi). Last quarter, Freight’s sales grew 43% to $1.5B, and made up nearly a fifth of Uber’s total revenue. But in January Uber Freight said it would cut 3% of its workforce as trucking cools.

  • Initial Truck Offering? Uber is said to be thinking of spinning off Freight as a separate publicly traded company, or just selling it altogether. But it’s TBD if either will happen.

Slowing the (freight) train… During the pandemic, trucking was essential in delivering tons of backlogged goods across the nation. But as supply chains start to balance out, so has demand. Last quarter truckload freight deliveries fell 7%, the biggest drop since 2020. Now analysts say shippers will have to charge even less to stay competitive, which could eat into profits.

  • Delivery doldrums: UPS warned its annual sales could fall for the first time since 2009, and rival FedEx saw its quarterly profits dip.

  • Oh ship: Global shipping demand has also dropped from pandemic highs. It now costs less than $1.5K to ship a container from China to LA vs. $15K a year ago.

Sometimes you can do more with less… Ditching Freight could help Uber focus on its core ride-hail and food-delivery businesses, both of which saw record growth last quarter. While offering different services can be helpful, Uber may’ve realized it was diversified enough when its food-delivery biz helped offset a major ride-hail downturn during lockdowns.

ORDINOT

The Crypto Catch-Up…

💰 Costly… Crypto mega bank Silvergate said it would shut down after being forced to sell assets at a loss to cover a rush of withdrawals post-FTX. The closure of crypto’s go-to bank could make it harder for industry players to move $$.

📜 Policy… CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam said that ethereum and stablecoins are commodities — aka: should be regulated by his agency. Note: SEC Chair Gary Gensler likely disagrees. He's argued that all crypto (except bitcoin) may actually be a security.

🌶️ Spicy… Yuga Lab's bitcoin NFT (aka: ordinal) auction brought in $16.5M. But the creator of ordinals blasted the process — which required that bidders send their BTC to Yuga — suggesting it could be abused by scammers.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • UKant: US and EU travelers will soon need to get pre-authorization to enter the UK. The stricter controls, which start next year, are meant to boost border security but could hurt tourism in hubs like London.

  • GMoney: GM said it’ll offer buyouts to most of its 58K salaried employees. The Chevy-making car giant said the buyouts would help it avoid "involuntary actions" (read: layoffs) as it works to cut $2B in costs.

  • Taxy: President Biden's proposed budget seeks to cut the US deficit by $3T over 10 years, largely by hiking taxes on corporations and the wealthy (think: people earning $400K+). It’s unlikely to be embraced by the GOP-controlled House.

  • Walgones: California, which this week pledged not to do business with Walgreens, said it would end a $54M contract with the chain. The move comes after Walgreens said it wouldn’t sell the abortion pill in 20 states.

  • Mozart: Apple said it’s launching an app focused on classical music this month that will be free to Apple Music subscribers. The Beethoven bet could be a bid to eat away Spotify's lead.

Friday

  • February jobs report

Authors of this Snacks own bitcoin and ethereum and shares: of Apple, GM, and Uber

ID: 2785067

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The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

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Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

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Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

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There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.

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AI needs so much electricity that tech companies are getting into the energy business

To accommodate tech companies’ pivots to artificial intelligence, tech companies are increasingly investing in ways to power AI’s immense electricity needs.

Most recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman invested in Exowatt, a company using solar power to feed data centers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

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