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The “Revenge Economy" begins, and pandemic travel hits a record high

Snacks / Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Best feeling in Economy... When they give you water and a soda from the cart. Millions were feeling the carbonated love this weekend, as US air travel hit a pandemic high: TSA screened 1M+ passengers each day from Thursday to Sunday, the best streak in a year (they were prob all going to Miami).

  • On April 15 last year, just 90K people passed through TSA — 96% fewer passengers than in April 2019. In August, we hit a daily high of 863K passengers (still ~70% fewer than in 2019).
  • On Sunday, more than 1.3M people handed their IDs to TSA. That’s still 41% below 2019 levels... but it’s a serious improvement.

Return of the Biscoff cookies... Airline shares surged yesterday. United stock popped 8% after the company said it expects to stop burning cash in March (earlier than projected). Driving the travel record: rising vaccine optimism, and falling Covid cases. 15% of American adults have been fully vaxed so far. Airlines aren't the only ones showing signs of recovery...

  • Urban Outfitters is seeing fresh interest in "going-out" clothes. In the last week of February, seven of Anthropologie’s top 10 selling items online were dresses (up from zero mid-pandemic).
  • Carnival already has more cruise bookings for 2022 than it had in 2019, and Royal Caribbean saw a 30% increase in future bookings since the start of the year (compared to Nov/Dec).
  • Ulta's makeup sales increased from January to February, while skincare declined as a percentage of sales.

The “Revenge Economy" could be next... For a year, sweats have replaced shopping sprees and screens have replaced travel — and Americans have socked away $1.5T in excess savings. After Stimulus #1, Americans saved a record 33% of their disposable income in April 2020. While the pandemic is still inflicting pain, things are looking up. Now that people feel more secure in their savings, we're seeing leading indicators of the revenge spending economy. With a fresh round of $1.4K checks going out, we can expect more revenge spending in April.

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