Friday Oct.28, 2022

đŸ» Amazon’s bearish forecast

Amazon’s spooky earnings (Patrick T. Fallon/Getty Images)
Amazon’s spooky earnings (Patrick T. Fallon/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Some dress up as vampires for Halloween, while others buy vampire caskets: Titan Caskets is gaining sway in the funeral industry with pop culture branding, from a Taylor Swift music-video cameo to TV-show-themed designs.

Lackluster tech earnings dragged the Nasdaq and S&P 500 down (Meta plunged 25%). The Dow perked up on news that the US economy grew 2.6% last quarter after shrinking in the first half of the year. Also: Elon Musk now runs Twitter.

Sink

Amazon shares tumble on a bummer forecast, highlighting a Q3 theme for tech titans

Primed for a slowdown
 Yesterday Amazon became the latest techie to deliver uninspiring third-quarter earnings. The ecomm staple missed both sales and profit expectations, but what disappointed investors most was a weak forecast for this quarter. After the bell, Amazon shares tumbled by as much as 20%.

  • The bull(ish): Amazon’s sales returned to double-digit growth, and it posted its first profit of the year (though it was 9% lower than last year).
  • The bearish: Amazon expects this holiday quarter’s sales to be up just 2% to 8% from last year — a major growth slowdown from previous quarters.
  • The bear: Investors sent Amazon shares plunging, marking the second time this year the stock has suffered a double-digit-percentage selloff.

Quote of the quarter
 from the mouth of Amazon CEO Andy Jassy to investors’ ears: “There is obviously a lot happening in the macroeconomic environment.” Amazon’s much-lower-than-expected Q4 sales guidance includes a big hit from the strong US dollar.

  • Because the USD has appreciated relative to other currencies, foreign earnings are now worth less in USD. That’s a problem, because S&P tech giants earn about 60% of their revenue abroad.
  • Amazon’s international sales fell 5% year over year, but they would’ve been up 12% if it weren’t for changes in foreign exchange rates.

Big Techies are in the same boat
 Oil titans like Shell are still reporting booming profits, while big food staples like Coke are raising their outlook on upbeat earnings. But for the likes of Amazon, Google, and Meta, the pandemic growth spurt is over — and the “macroeconomic” problems have landed. Now investors’ expectations are being adjusted as forecasts come back down to earth.

Viral

YouTube star MrBeast could hit billionaire status with the help of VC funding, as investors look to “fans as a service”

Spend 100 days in a circle, win $500K
 typical MrBeast. YouTube star MrBeast has 107M+ subscribers thanks to viral videos featuring elaborate stunts and giveaways (his “Squid Game” reenactment has nearly 300M views). Now he’s said to be looking for $150M in fresh funding to expand his Beast-based businesses:

  • In January: MrBeast launched his snacks biz (dubbed: Feastables), which has already made $10M+ in sales.
  • Last month: The first MrBeast Burger restaurant opening attracted 10K fans, and the burger brand is forecast to earn millions this year.
  • Beasty billions: The desired funding round would value MrBeast’s empire at $1.5B — the largest valuation for an influencer-led biz.

Venture capital → creator capital... Investors are racing to put their money in social-media startups as overnight sensations emerge from platforms like TikTok and YouTube. VC funding for creator startups has already topped $637M this year, on pace to beat last year’s record. Now some of the biggest social stars want in:

  • TikTok big shot Charli D’Amelio and her family launched a venture-capital fund called 444 Capital in March.
  • Last year a venture firm invested $15M in startup Pietra, which helps influencers launch their own product lines (think: skincare).

Creators offer fans-as-a-service
 Social-media stars are ripe targets for investors given their ability to make content, build audiences, and capitalize on both — all in a self-promoting cycle of content, eyeballs, and products. Mega-creators like MrBeast can offer their empires on a platter, which could translate to big returns. Last year, MrBeast generated $54M in revenue, or $147K/day.

Bark

The Crypto Catch-Up


  • đŸ€– Techy
 Apple stepped in it (it = NFT community). It seemingly embraced NFTs by saying apps could list and sell the tokens. The catch: purchases have to go through the App Store (read: Apple wants its 30% cut).
  • đŸȘ™ Coins
 Sam Bankman-Fried said his crypto exchange, FTX, would "very likely" launch a stablecoin. The exchange is the world's third largest, and would likely be well positioned to compete with stablecoin giants Tether and Circle.
  • 📜 Policy
 Bring on the rules: a recent survey found that slightly over half of US voters want greater crypto regulation. Stability and fraud-fighting were called out as the desired top priorities of any future regs.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Shiny: Apple reported expectation-beating record sales, but the news wasn't all good: iPhone and services revenue came in low. Inflation may’ve played a role in tempering scrolly-tappy sales.
  • Faceplant: Meta said it's laying off staff and slowing hiring as it looks to cut costs. Meanwhile, the VR-loving biz is set to invest $15B in the metaverse this year — with no immediate plans to cut those costs.
  • $hell: Energy behemoths Shell and Total reported monster earnings (almost $10B each). Oil and gas prices boosted by Russia’s war on Ukraine helped push their profits to more than double what they were last year.
  • Treat: Hershey’s stock is up over 20% this year, while the S&P 500 is down 20%. One reason: the chocolate icon grew investor appetite by buying brands like Pirate's Booty (salty + sweet = winning combo).
  • Happy: McDonald's beat earnings expectations as customers kept McOrdering. Execs credited price hikes and higher-income diners opting for McD's instead of full-service spots.

Friday

  • Earnings expected from: Exxon, Chevron, AbbVie, NextEra Energy, and Colgate

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Amazon, Apple, Exxon, and Google

ID: 2562365

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No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Gonna have to rename the company... again

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

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Rani Molla
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Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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