Wednesday Nov.18, 2020

💊 Amazon launches an ePharmacy

_Forgot the code for the Nasdaq check-in_
_Forgot the code for the Nasdaq check-in_

Hey Snackers,

The most adorable automation play of 2020: Bobacino. This robo boba-making prototype would be the star of any WeWork (kombucha on tap < tapioca on tap).

Markets dipped yesterday while bitcoin hit $17K for the first time in nearly three years.

e-Pill

Amazon launches an online pharmacy, making CVS and Walgreens stock quake

It's hereeee... Amazon Pharmacy. Two years ago, Amazon acquired PillPack for $1B. Pharmacies were shook, but not as shook as they were yesterday when: the Zon launched an online pharmacy, built off PillPack's biz. Starting this week, people in 45 US states can send their prescriptions to Amazon and order meds.

  • Prime members get free two-day shipping and savings benefits (up to 80% off generic and 40% off brand-name meds). And a savings card to use at 50K pharmacies.
  • Non-Primers get free 5-day delivery (and a whole lot of pop-ups to join Prime). Amazon's accepting most forms of insurance, but you can pay without.

"Code red!"... Overhead at CVS corporate. Amazon's entering a massive market — nearly half of Americans take prescription drugs. In 2018, pharmacies sold $336B worth of prescription meds. But Amazon has over 110M US Prime members, which could make its ePharmacy seem more convenient (and cheaper). That's why:

  • CVS and Walgreens shares dropped 9% yesterday, and Rite Aid plunged 16%.
  • GoodRx stock fell 23% since it's "the Expedia of prescription drugs."
  • Walmart stock dipped 2% — despite strong earnings yesterday — because it has a healthcare biz.

Brick-and-mortar could save pharmacies... CVS and Walgreens each have 10K+ locations across the US, and they're expanding on-site healthcare to offer what Amazon can't. Walgreens dropped $1B to open hundreds of doctors offices, CVS is opening 1.5K "HealthHUBs," and Walmart offers on-site care — all to make buying prescription meds more convenient. Then again: telehealth has surged, and Amazon's discounts could be worth a two-day wait.

IPO

Airbnb files to go public and reveals a profit in its big turnaround quarter

Calm down... Airbnb got some inspo from Genesis as it prepped its IPO filing, kicking off its origin story with "In the beginning..." The home-sharing giant plans to go public in December under ticker symbol ABNB (STAY and CASA were too edgy).

  • Spring quarter: Airbnb lost nearly $600M, almost double what it lost during the same time last year.
  • Summer quarter: Airbnb made a $219M profit last quarter, despite sales falling 18%.

Nespresso machine en suite... 5 stars. Investors are giving Airbnb some credit. Earlier this year, Airbnb's valuation plunged to $18B as it took out high-interest loans to cover guest refunds and $250M for hosts' losses. Then it majorly turned its desperate fate around, filed to IPO, and is expected to notch a $30B valuation.

  • The "work from anywhere" trend helped, as people seeked less bedroom-like pastures. Airbnb focused on small towns after noticing an uptick in local stays.
  • Brutal cost-slashing was also key to the comeback — Airbnb sadly laid off 25% of its employees. It also shed noncore businesses and halved exec pay.

Airbnb needs to think like Uber (not like Lyft)... Airbnb is just a sharing platform for homes, like Lyft is just a ride-hailing platform. Meanwhile, Uber has become a platform to transport anything — from food, to cargo, to meds. If Airbnb becomes an "anything-sharing" platform (think: parking spaces, storage, boats, RVs) it could protect itself from pandemic pain — it warned that the recent COVID surge could bruise bookings this quarter.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Beef: Facebook's Zuckerberg and Twitter's Dorsey got grilled by the Senate (again) on content moderation.
  • Dark: Universal and Cinemark agreed to shorten the theatrical window from three months to as little as 17 days for Universal films.
  • Oh: Tesla is reportedly ending the sale of its cheaper $35K Model 3.
  • Marty: Walmart's US online sales rose 79% last quarter, but growth slowed from the previous pandemic quarter.
  • Remodel: Home Depot's sales growth beat expectations as the pandemic House Hype is still strong (repainting every week).
  • Trendy: Twitter is launching a "Fleets" Stories feature and expanding testing of "voice tweets" with audio-based DMs.

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Wednesday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Tesla, Twitter, and Walmart

ID: 1417424

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

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Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

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Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

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All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.

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AI needs so much electricity that tech companies are getting into the energy business

To accommodate tech companies’ pivots to artificial intelligence, tech companies are increasingly investing in ways to power AI’s immense electricity needs.

Most recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman invested in Exowatt, a company using solar power to feed data centers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

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