Themes

The Big Picture: three key themes that defined the first half

Monday, June 28, 2021 by Snacks
_Inflation has been #trending — here's where some of the price jumps happened (source: BLS)_

Inflation has been #trending — here's where some of the price jumps happened (source: BLS)

  1. America's booming recovery... Cue the "revenge spending." The US economy is roaring back to life and is expected to grow 6.5% this year, its highest rate since the '80s. Thank the US' massive stockpile of Covid vaccines for the glow-up — oh, and $5.3T worth of gov't stimulus. This year, Americans are spending more on restaurants, flights, and non-stretchy clothes (pajamas are about to enter a recession). US plane traveler volume is back to three-quarters of 2019 levels, up from 25% a year ago. But the reopening economy has also been driving inflation and shortages. And while the US recovers, poorer nations are falling further behind.

  2. The rise of alt-coins... This year, crypto mainstreamification is going far beyond Bitcoin: we call it "coin crowding." In January, BTC made up 70% of total crypto value — now, it makes up 45%. Alt-coins like Ethereum and Doge have picked up crypto market share, dimming BTC's spotlight. Smaller coins like DigiByte, VeChain and SafeMoon have also gained traction – and then there's influencer coins. As BTC's environmental impact comes under scrutiny, "green" alternatives like Chia are getting attention, too. Coin crowding is a new phenomenon with high volatility risk, and the long-term outcomes are still unclear.

  3. Big Tech's antitrust problems... have gotten a whole lot anti-er. This year, regulators are bringing real heat. Since the Apple-Epic trial in May, the temp has gone from steam room to sauna. Just last week, a House committee advanced major legislation to curb Big Tech's dominance. The headliner: a bill that would prohibit tech companies from playing favorites with their own products (think: Apple apps on App Store, Basics on Amazon). Meanwhile, newly confirmed FTC leader Lina Khan is a Big Tech critic who could expand the scope of antitrust enforcement. Blocked acquisition and even tech breakups seem more plausible.

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