Thursday Oct.28, 2021

💃 Rent the Runway’s market debut

Strutting to the Nasdaq gala in (rented) couture [stock_colors/E+ via Getty Images]
Strutting to the Nasdaq gala in (rented) couture [stock_colors/E+ via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

Not the surprise you’d expect after shelling out millions for a trip: SpaceX’s first tourist flight featured some unexpected liquids after a toilet tube broke loose under the cabin floor.

Stocks rebounded today, closing at records after several strong earnings. Investors shrugged off news of slowing economic growth, driven by a major slowdown in consumer spending last quarter.

Strut

Rent the Runway struts onto the public market as sharing catches up to ownership

Badgley Mischka dress for the rehearsal dinner... Minus the $700 price tag. Designer clothing rental pioneer Rent the Runway made its Wall Street runway debut yesterday. Shares opened for trading 9% above their $21 IPO price, but closed the day down 8%. The 13-year-old company lets you rent chic clothes, bags, and accessories for a fraction of the sticker price. RTR handles the dry cleaning, so you don't quick-wash a $400 blouse.

  • Subscription-first: Subs account for more than 80% of RTR's revenue. The "most loved" subscription plan lets you rent up to eight items a month for $135.
  • "Closet in the cloud": RTR carries 700+ designers, and the average member rents $37K worth of clothes yearly. Members get special prices if they choose to buy.

"Need a gown for the gala"... But not mid-pandemic. Last year, RTR lost more than half its subscribers, and its loss widened to $171M (it's still not profitable). Even though 90% of its customers still WFH, proms and posh parties are coming back: In September, RTR subscribers rebounded to 112K — down from 134K pre-pandemic, but up 2X from September last year.

  • Premium on experiences: RTR CEO Jennifer Hyman says the pandemic pushed consumers into “valuing experiences over ownership.”
  • Sharing is trendy: The secondhand market is the fastest-growing portion of apparel, and RTR isn't the only one feeling the love.
  • Publicly traded rivals like Poshmark, The RealReal, and ThredUp are riding the wave of sustainability trends with already-worn fashion.

Sharing > owning... This 2021 theme isn't only about sustainability. The pandemic taught us that life — and plans — can change fast. You don't want to splurge on a gown when the event could be canceled at any moment, or invest in a car when you don't know where you'll be in a month. That's why Airbnb is thriving with rentals like yurts and car companies like Volkswagen are launching subscriptions.

B-tax

A proposed first-of-its-kind “billionaires tax” would’ve been a major blow to the 1%’s wealth

Alert Elon… Elon Musk’s personal wealth rocketed past $250B this week, cementing his position as Earth’s richest person (insert Bezos side-eye). But this week a Democratic senator drew up the deets for a first-of-its-kind “billionaires tax,” proposed as part of Biden’s $2T spending package. This would be a tax on unrealized gains — aka investments that have risen in price but haven’t been sold. Quick refresher:

  • People are taxed on income (think: wages, salary) — not on total net worth (think: cash + all unsold investments). Many stock holdings aren’t taxed unless they’re sold for profit, when they can become realized gains.
  • That’s why many billionaires pay shockingly low taxes: Mark Zuckerberg’s base pay as Facebook CEO is $1 — his net worth is $120B+, thanks to all his FB shares.
  • The proposed 24% tax rate on unrealized gains would apply to anyone with $1B+ in assets, or $100M in income for three straight years. The tax reportedly wouldn’t apply to real estate, but would apply to crypto.

Billionaires weren’t happy… Cue Elon’s disappointed tweet. Elon’s wealth surged $36B on Monday alone after Tesla’s stock spiked. Under the tax, he’d owe $7.8B if he ended the year with just those gains, even if he never sold his Tesla shares. America’s 732 billionaires — a quarter of the world’s total — would be the only people affected by the tax. It would reportedly generate $250B to fund the Democrats’ $2T agenda. But because of political opposition and a lack of legal precedent, the proposal has already been shot down.

This B-tax was just a first draft… While the number of Americans who own stocks is growing, gains remain unequal: The top 1% gained 5X more from stocks and funds during the pandemic than the bottom 90%. With US wealth inequality worsening — the top 1% own 32% of US wealth while the bottom half own 2% — support for some type of billionaire tax remains high.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Pointed: Activist hedge fund Third Point, which owns a $500M stake in Shell, is urging the oil giant to break up as investors ditch fossil-fuel stocks.
  • Sharing: Pharma giant Merck will license its Covid pill to a UN-backed nonprofit to help with outbreaks in low-income countries.
  • Carpool: Hertz is partnering with Uber to make 50K Teslas available in the ride-hailing app, days after announcing a $4B order of 100K Model 3s.
  • Cloudy: Shares of Twilio, which helps companies like Uber and DoorDash text customers, sank 13% after a weak earnings forecast.
  • Chip: Ford’s and GM’s quarterly profits fell as the global chip shortage dented production and raised costs.
  • IRL: eBay shares fell 5% after the OG ecomm platform lowered expectations for online holiday shopping as buyers head back to brick-and-mortar stores.

Thursday

  • Jobless claims
  • Earnings expected from: Apple, Amazon, Sony, Mastercard, Shell, Shopify, Starbucks, Caterpillar, and Hershey

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Uber, Amazon, Apple, Ford, Twitter, Tesla, and GM

ID: 1896651

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Tangential remarks

Nicolai Tangen, the CEO who holds the purse strings of Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, thinks that his fellow Europeans don’t quite stack up to US employees when it comes to pure hustle, telling the Financial Times in a recent interview that there is a difference in “the general level of ambition” and thatthe Americans just work harder”. 

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked
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$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business
Rani Molla
4/25/24

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Rani Molla4/25/24