Friday Jun.19, 2020

🛳 Carnival anchors a record loss

_Spotify making its exclusive deal pitch_
_Spotify making its exclusive deal pitch_

Hey Snackers,

157 years ago, Lincoln's Emancipation Proclamation declared that all slaves "are, and henceforward shall be free." But this didn't fully happen until June 19th, 1865 — months after the Civil War ended. So today we celebrate Juneteenth to commemorate the end of slavery in the US — and focus on the important work still left to be done.

Stocks barely budged yesterday — even though weekly jobless claims were worse than expected (1.5M last week).

Cruise

Carnival lands a record $4.4B loss — but investors are eyeing 2021 bookings

Fire up the nautical puns... After at least 3 ships faced on-board COVID-19 crises, a wave of cancellations, and a straight up ban on cruises, we weren't expecting much from Carnival. But the cruise operator managed to sink below even the worst expectations.

  • Biggest quarterly loss (ever): Carnival lost $4.4B — nearly 2X more than what Wall Street expected. In the same quarter last year, it turned a $430M profit.
  • Sales plunge: Sales took an 85% scuba dive, coming in at only $700M. Blame corona-related travel concerns, followed by a strict No Sail Order.
  • Cash burn: Carnival expects to burn $650M per month for the 2nd half of 2020. Its massive $700M+ cruise ships are just chilling on water, burning cash by the minute.

IDGAF'ing... Carnival investors. The stock actually jumped 5% after the Titanic-style earnings. Investors are focused on the rising tide:

  • August 1st: The day Carnival plans to sail again. That's only a week after the CDC's No Sail Order is expected to end. Carnival says the plan is "premature," but hasn't cancelled the 8 scheduled cruises.
  • 2021 bookings: As of May 31, advanced bookings for 2021 cruises were surprisingly near pre-COVID levels (though selling at lower prices).
  • Liquidity: Carnival's $7.6B in available cash will help it survive until it can sail. It's also planning to sell six ships over the next three months.

It's the cathartic earnings report... People were expecting terrible results from Carnival. That helped stabilize its stock when earnings tanked. Carnival shares are up 33% over the month as investors focus on economic reopenings. Carnival shareholders hope they just got over the worst hump. Meanwhile, some corona-conomy thrivers like Slack have dropped after earnings, because their numbers weren't as jaw-dropping as expected.

Tune

Spotify stock soars to all-time high after Kardashian and DC Comics pod deals

What do Kim Kardashian and Batman have in common?... An exclusive Spotify partnership. The Swedish streaming champ just inked a deal with Warner Bros' DC Comics and reality TV's Kim Kardashian West. Its stock surged 12% to a record high on the news. What Spotify splurged on:

  • The entire DC Comics universe: Spotify gets the exclusive rights to use the blockbuster intellectual property for original scripted podcasts. Superman, Wonder Woman, Batman, and the Joker... welcome to the playlist.
  • Kim K: Spotify gets an exclusive Kim K podcast, focused on criminal justice and prison reform (less E! News, more Law & Order). Kim has been hitting the law books, and will be co-producing/hosting the show.

Making it exclusive... Spotify is defining the relationship with big stars. The goal? Bring their huge followings (exclusively) to its platform. It's the "Gated Garden" strategy:

  • A month ago, Spotify snatched exclusive rights to The Joe Rogan Experience — aka, the biggest pod in America. It dropped over $100M to make Joe a 100% Spotify experience.
  • Now, Spotify is hoping to woo some of Kim's 175M Insta followers to join its 286M users. And lure DC Comics fans, which boasts some of the highest-grossing films of all time.

Pods have lived up to the splurge... Spotify has spent almost $1B snatching up pod content/companies over the past 1.5 years, including Gimlet Media and The Ringer. Those acquisitions were mainly focused on existing pods with existing audiences. With Kim and DC, Spotify wants more non-podding people to start podding. Since its 1st pod-cquisition in February '19, Spotify's market value has grown by $25B — and its pod audience more than doubled.

Grub

McDonald's kicks salads, bagels, and 98 others off its menu (because less is more)

Ronald thrives on minimalism... The one thing McDonald's is slimming down: its menu. When coronavirus hit, the Golden Arches streamlined operations by temporarily cutting menu options. Salads, yogurt parfaits, and bagels were among the 100 unfortunates that got booted. Now, they won't be returning to the menu any time soon.

Less is more... That's what McDonald's realized after this corona-conomy experiment. Fewer menu items means less to source, stock, prepare and serve — and less waste. McD's is lovin' the results:

  • Speed: Drive-thru times dropped by an average of 25 seconds. Buuut — this extra speed could also be due to the lack of dine-in customers (who hold up the line).
  • Satisfaction: Customers reported that their food tasted better and their orders were more accurate — because chicken nuggies and fries are easier than Southwest Chicken salad with half dressing on the side.

Corona-conomy has been one giant business experiment... It accelerated the WFH trend, and now it's speeding up McDonald's menu-slimming. For years, McD's has been getting feedback that its menu is overwhelming. So it planned to potentially simplify it in 2023 with a menu review. But now that change has already happened... three years ahead of schedule.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Tweety: Twitter adds an audio recording feature that lets you "Tweet with your voice" in 2-minute clips (and scroll while you listen).
  • Groce: Kroger, the biggest US supermarket operator, saw its profit soar 57% for the quarter — sales jumped 19%, and digital sales nearly 2X'd.
  • Scoot: E-scooter startup Bird launches a navigation app specifically designed for scooter and bike riders — no highway routes.
  • Speedy: Ford offers hands-free driving on its new electric Mustang Mach-E, four years after GM intro'd the system.
  • Dashing: Food delivery leader DoorDash raises $400M in funding, valuing the private company at nearly $16B.
  • End: Bankrupt Hertz was forced to halt trading for the 2nd time this week — then it dropped plans for a new stock sale.

🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to share the Snacks? Invite your friends to sign up here.

Friday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Twitter and Spotify

ID: 1221233

Get Your News

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Latest Stories

$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

Go Deeper with Market Depth

Nasdaq TotalView powers the need-to-know data serious investors rely on.

Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Your inbox is ready

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales