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Uber's "tough timing" 8% drop on IPO day

Snacks / Monday, May 13, 2019

Anti-surge-pricing... Uber stock fell 8% on Day #1 of trading. We were there for it, watching founder/ex-CEO Travis Kalanick roll up in an UberX. Uber Eats teammates handed out bagels/granola on the floor, while Employee #4 Austin Geidt rang the NYSE opening bell. Uber-style, the IPO already broke records:

  • $6 billion of Uber stock value was erased during the worst opening day loss of any US IPO.
  • It was the least profitable company ever to go public — Its loss the past 12 months was twice as big as the 2nd biggest IPO loser (ironically, that's Lyft).

"Bad IPO day" support groups... Wall Street needs one. Tech stocks tend to jump on IPO day — Over the last 24 years, they've popped 41% on average. But Uber's not the only exception:

  • Facebook: Spent its first 15 months below its IPO price. Now it's Earth's #4 most valuable company.
  • Snap and Lyft: Both lost a third of their stock value within a month.
  • Alibaba: Fell nearly 50% over its 1st year. Now it's nearly double its IPO price.
  • FYI, keep in mind: None of these past stock moves are signs of future ones — IPO stocks can be especially volatile. Always dive into a company's S-1 before jumping into its freshly-issued stock.

Venture capitalists were cool with Uber's losses... Maybe public investors aren't. Uber's epic '08 pitch deck convinced private investors to invest over $20B in Uber. After Friday's IPO, it's worth $76.5B — The same valuation as three years ago. New tariffs last week and a driver strike didn't help, but unprofitability is the fundamental worry for Uber (and Lyft). Robo-drivers could solve that (ETA is TBD). Will investors wait?

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