Cockpit

Out of left airfield: Southwest's first quarterly profit in the pandemic era

Snacks / Thursday, April 22, 2021

All in the same cockpit... Major US airlines just dropped earnings, and we're sensing a trend: American, Delta, and United all reported $1B+ losses. But their outlooks were brighter on rebounding travel demand (thanks: vax rollout, spring break). While these airlines saw their 5th-straight quarterly losses, Southwest came in out of left airfield:

  • Southwest revealed a $116M profit yesterday, its first quarterly profit since the pandemic began. $1.2B in government aid definitely helped, but there's more to the story...

LUV being different... LUV is Southwest's ticker symbol — and its mood in 2021. The favorable wind boosting Southwest: its domestic and leisure focus. Business travel has been hammered by the WFH life, and some execs say it may never recover. International travel has been hammered as Covid lockdowns hit Europe, and many international borders remain closed.

  • That's good for Southwest, which has a largely domestic network of US flights and more leisure-focused flyers (it doesn't offer business or first-class). By June, it expects to fly 96% of its pre-pandemic schedule.
  • That's bad for Delta, United, and American, who depend on business travel and international routes. United needs business and international traffic to recover to 65% of pre-pandemic levels to even turn a profit — they're both down 80% right now.

Sometimes, less is more... Sure, Southwest doesn’t have the reach of bigger international airlines. Most of its eggs are in the US economy class basket, so it suffers when that basket suffers. But its risk exposure to other factors, like international travel, is limited. Now, other airlines are leaning more into domestic leisure travel, too: Delta, American, and United recently added dozens of domestic routes. Alaska added four new routes to tourist-friendly Montana destination (think: Yellowstone). We can expect these airlines to focus more on your Miami girls trip, less on your Dallas conference.

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