Thursday Jun.03, 2021

🍿 AMC's stock surge

_It's on the house  [SolStock/E+ via GettyImages]_
_It's on the house [SolStock/E+ via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

If you're having a rough week, we wish you as much resilience as this cat, which survived a five-story jump from a burning building uninjured — and then just casually walked off.

Stocks ticked up yesterday, while meme stocks surged. About that...

Beef

The world’s biggest meat supplier shut plants after a major cyber attack — here's what might help

Vegans aren't sweating it... JBS, aka: Earth's largest meat producer, was forced to shut down all of its US beef plants after a cyberattack over the weekend. The ransomware attack halted output at facilities that supply nearly a quarter of America's meat — and some in Australia and Canada. Ransomware = hijacking computer systems and demanding payment for the release of the "hostage." The FBI is blaming a Russia-based hacking group called REvil (classic). JBS' CEO said that most plants would be operating by Wednesday (aka: yesterday).

Niet good... JBS is one of four meat giants that control more than 80% of US beef processing, so this attack is raising national food security alarms. Cyber attacks have been increasingly targeting critical infrastructure. Think: pipelines, power grids, and food production facilities.

  • Since May 2020, there have been 40+ publicly reported ransomware attacks against food companies.
  • Last month: Colonial, the US' largest fuel pipeline, was hit with a crippling ransomware attack. That caused a run on the pumps, since Colonial carries nearly half of the East Coast's gas. Colonial paid $4.4B worth of Bitcoin to reclaim its systems.
  • Last year: ~$350M worth of cryptocurrency payments went to ransomware attacks, up 3X from 2019. "Ransomware-as-a-Service" is a business now. Victims don’t want to lose their data, so they pay up.

This corporate problem may require a government solution... Hackers are seeking payment in Bitcoin, which is hard to trace — and might require sophisticated government intelligence. Plus, each time a company pays a ransom, it encourages more attacks. Experts believe Russia is funding the "ransomware plague." Companies can't pressure Russia to stop — but the government can. President Biden will have plenty to discuss when he meets with Russian president Putin later this month.

Pop

AMC debuts a loyalty program for individual investors, as shares nearly double in a day

The corn is popping... and AMC smells butter. AMC stock nearly doubled yesterday, rallying a whopping 95%. Shares popped so quickly that they triggered four NYSE trading halts — aka: the NYSE temporarily paused trading of AMC stock, because it moved too rapidly outside of its "price band." This year, the stock is up over 3,000%, and AMC now boasts a $28B market cap, up from $500M a year ago.

  • While it's hot: On Tuesday, AMC sold 8.5M new shares for $230M to an investment firm called Mudrick Capital.
  • Not the first time: AMC has sold shares multiple times this year to capitalize on its stock surges and raise cash.

The corn is free... AMC stock closed at a record high yesterday, even while 30% of movie theaters are still closed and some studios are going direct-to-streaming. Retail traders have rallied around the stock, helping AMC avoid pandemic bankruptcy. Now, AMC is turning its individual shareholders into loyalty members:

  • AMC unveiled a new portal on its website, just for retail investors. Shareholders can access exclusive promos, like discounts and invitations to special screenings.
  • A free (large) popcorn is another new perk for AMC retail investors, along with direct communications from CEO Adam Aron.

AMC is catering to the retail investor... 3.2M individual investors own 80% of AMC shares. Now, AMC is taking steps to engage retail shareholders in a way we haven't seen before. In the words of AMC's Aron: "these people are the owners of AMC, and I work for them.” AMC's moves speak to the growing importance of retail investors in the markets.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Confirmed: Activist firm Engine No. 1 claimed Exxon's third board seat, and could force it to change its oil-focused strategy.
  • Ransom: NYC’s subway operator and Martha’s Vineyard ferry operator were the latest to get hit with cyberattacks.
  • Stim: Sharp declines in financial instability and anxiety coincided with the latest rounds of stimulus payments, according to a new study.
  • Recall: Tesla is recalling hundreds of Model 3s that were shipped to China, following thousands of recalls over the past few months.

Thursday

  • Weekly jobless claims
  • Earnings expected from Lululemon, Broadcom, and DocuSign

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Tesla

ID: 1671982

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.