Un-tariff

New US tariffs on China get delayed... because of holiday shopping

Snacks / Tuesday, August 13, 2019
_Markets weren't expecting this, but kind of love it_
_Markets weren't expecting this, but kind of love it_

iTariffs... President Trump announced them just 2 weeks ago. With everything else already tariff'd, the US planned to tax the remaining $300B worth of consumer products made in China starting September 1st — including the iPhone. Yesterday, he said nevermind: waiting until December 15th for most new tariffs so American shoppers can have a Merry Christmas.

Teachers hate procrastination... Markets don't. The tariffs were essentially a 10% tax that would hurt profits for companies manufacturing in China, while raising prices by 10% for everybody. Here's who wins with Tuesday's sudden flip:

  • Apple: Shares popped 4% because iPhones and MacBooks won't get 10% more expensive until after most holiday shopping is done. Made in China AirPods, the Watch, and HomePod still get hit on September 1st, though.
  • Mattel & Best Buy: The stocks rose 5% and 6% as Made in China action figures and speakers will remain tariff-free through the holidays.
  • Nike: Sneakers were also on the exemption list, so the swoosh jumped up 2%.

This sends a message to China... If the trade war has political or stock market costs, America might cave. Credibility is important in negotiations, and Trump's credibility takes a hit with this one.

  1. Political cost: Since American buyers pay US tariffs, not Chinese exporters, this latest round would have grinched Christmas for American households.
  2. Stock market cost: If tariffs caused poor holiday sales, stock markets likely would've suffered.

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