Wednesday Jul.31, 2019

Apple’s iPhone milestone: <50%

"_I will protect this house_"
"_I will protect this house_"

Hey Snackers,

It's National Avocado Day. Prices of "the good fat" from Mexico have more than doubled from last year, but some spot near you probably has a "free guac" situation right now. Take advantage.

Markets barely budged Tuesday despite the biggest week of earnings of this quarter.

Sweat

Under Armour drops 14% because it ignored the athleisure life

Home court advantage is over... Under Armour's sales abroad are up, but its share of the US activewear market has slipped from 6.4% to 5.6%. Its share of footwear fell, too. The stock had been up 55% this year, but just suffered its worst day in 2 years. Someone please protect this house.

Too much “ath” not enough “leisure"... Under Armour doubled-down on super technical apparel to dominate the sweat-wicking athlete lifestyle. But consumers want more fashion weaved into their workout gear so that they're brunch-ready. Now analysts think UA is a “long way” behind its rivals. Here's what they're up to:

  • Lululemon: Launching experiential stores and adding branded shampoos.
  • Puma: Selena Gomez landed her own collaboration collection.
  • Nike: Taking stands on social issues.
  • Adidas: Beyoncé is designing sneakers.

Time to rebrand Under Armour... We noticed this quote from founder/CEO Kevin Plank: Under Armour's marketing needs to get "louder." Actually, it's the opposite — UA needs to get smarter. Perfect case: Under Armour's relationship with women. It's invested in female-focused marketing, but brand equity among women has barely budged. More isn't always more.

Evolved

Apple is no longer an iPhone company — and the stock jumped 4%

'Siri, what am I?'... Not an iPhone company. After years of dominating Apple's financial statements, a milestone was just hit: The iPhone now makes up less than 50% of Apple's sales for the first time since 2012. Big moment. Let it sink in. And the next iPhone coming this fall probably won't have the futuristic 5G internet-of-everything network (it's not coming until 2020 for Apple).

Apple is now a 2-part company... iPhones vs. everything else.

  • iPhone sales fell 12%: ⬇️That number is way down because the price has surged to "should-I-just-get-a-laptop" levels, and people don't feel the need to iUpgrade as often.
  • Everything else (especially accessories) jumped 17%: ⬆️ Mac, iPad, wearables, and services (Apple Music, Apple News+) are helping drive recurring revenues.
  • Fun fact: That wearables biz? It includes AirPods and Apple Watch. And the whole wearables division is now the size of a Fortune 200 company.

Apple has 1 innovative new thing right now... (and we already kinda knew about it). The joint credit card with Goldman Sachs. We now know the titanium-clad (there's also a digital version) humble-brag collaboration will arrive in August. In Apple's world of slowing iPhones and growing services, it's creatively focused on privacy:

  • There's no card number — it updates with a new one every transaction so even Goldman can't track your shopping.
  • And it doesn't sell that data to anyone else.
  • Plus, it's all 2-factor authenticated — aka finger or facial recognition.
Pricing

Shaving just cost Procter & Gamble $8B because Gillette couldn't keep up

Your sink cabinet has a soul... and it's filled with Tide, Febreeze, Bounty, and Tampax. They're some of the VIP brands behind Procter & Gamble. The stock rose 4% after its earnings were released, but P&G also reported one huge number: a $5.4B loss — that's because it reevaluated and adjusted the value of its Gillette razor brand big-time:

  • 2005: P&G acquires Gillette for a smooth $57B.
  • Right now: P&G has adjusted Gillette's valuation down by hefty $8B.

Blame beards... P&G claims "lower shaving frequency" is behind Gillette's decline, jumping on the "because Millennials" bandwagon. Shaving happens less often (down 11% in the last 5 years) and with cheaper razors — Dollar Shave Club (now owned by Unilever) and Harry's (acquired by Edgewell Personal Care) have snagged Gillette's market share. Sophisticated, "Mach-filled," 20-blade razors are out.

Pricing is power... Despite #GilletteProblems, we mentioned P&G's stock rose 4%. That's because sales surged 7% — the biggest jump in over a decade. Half that rise comes from P&G charging higher prices from detergent to tampons (the other half is just selling more of them). The conglomerate has been raising prices, but consumers keep paying. That's power you can't buy.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Recycled: Coke and Pepsi are quitting the plastics lobby that pushes the stuff
  • Cover-up: L'Oréal's sales slowed as the influencer-powered makeup boom loses its mojo
  • Security: United Airlines invests in speed-up airport security startup Clear (fun fact: Delta's already an investor)
  • Moving: Compass, the tech-ish real estate platform, raises $370M to hit a $6.4B valuation on the way to an IPO
  • #$&!: Ryanair's CEO tells Boeing to get its 's--- together'

Wednesday

  • Earnings from Spotify, GE, Twilio, and Qualcomm
  • The Fed announces its new interest rate policy (the 1st cut in 10 years is expected)

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares in Lululemon.

20190731-914717-2756358

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No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
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Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative