Thursday Jul.21, 2022

🏠 Housing hits a wall

Outpriced in suburbia (Thomas Northcut/Getty Images)
Outpriced in suburbia (Thomas Northcut/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Talk about an offer you can’t refuse: the mansion featured in “The Godfather” is now available on Airbnb. You won’t find Don Corelone there these days, but you will find a big saltwater pool.

The Nasdaq gained 1.6% yesterday after better-than-feared earnings from Netflix and Tesla. The US dollar continued gaining against the euro ahead of the European Central Bank’s key policy decision today. Also today: we’ll see whether Russia restarts gas exports to Europe from the Nord Stream pipeline.

Escrow

Home sales have boomed during the pandemic, but now a brutal market is making the American dream distant for most

Buying your dream house… is becoming a nightmare. Demand for mortgages hit a 22-year low last week, as more would-be buyers got squeezed out of a pricey market. Home sales have fallen for five months straight, as prospective buyers deal with a triple whammy of challenges:

  • Ceiling costs: The median price for an existing home hit a record $416K in June. Blame low inventory.
  • Roof rates: The cost of borrowing $$ for a mortgage has nearly doubled this year as the Fed hikes interest rates.
  • Crowded lawns: The average house is on the market for just 14 days before it’s sold, the shortest cycle on record.

Not keeping up… Median incomes in the US have increased 14X since 1960 — but median home prices have soared 36X. The housing-affordability crisis accelerated during the pandemic as buyers ditch city rent for suburban mortgages — and priced out locals. And it’s getting worse:

  • Long road: By the end of this year, it’ll take 11+ years for a first-time buyer with median income to save for a 10% down payment. Pre-pandemic, it took half as long.
  • Broken system: The average US worker needs to pay about a third of their income to afford a median-priced home — the highest level since the ’07 housing bubble.

The picket fence is out of reach… Homeownership was once a cornerstone of the American dream; now it’s becoming inaccessible for average families. Homes became less affordable in 97% of the US last quarter (FYI: last month rent also jumped at its fastest pace since 1986). And while housing inventory is expected to increase in the coming months, experts say 60% of Americans won’t be able to afford starter homes through 2025, especially those in communities of color.

Fazed

Viral gaming brand FaZe Clan goes public, but its 500M-strong following may not shield it from the SPAC-pocalypse

FaZe SPAC... Gaming influencers just took themselves public. FaZe Clan launched as a gaming YouTube channel in 2010. Think: mostly guys in gaming chairs posting “Call of Duty” "sniping" videos. Today, FaZe is an esports and media company with 93 members (including Snoop Dogg). In May, Forbes ranked it the fourth-most-valuable esports company. Yesterday:

  • FaZe went public on the Nasdaq after completing a $725M merger with a SPAC (aka: special purpose acquisition company) called "B Riley Principal 150 Merger Corp." — claaaassic SPAC name.
  • The debut is a milestone for "creator economy" brands, most of which are private. FaZe has 500M followers across socials like YouTube, Twitch, and TikTok.
  • Fazed: Despite its viral clout, FaZe stock plunged 24% on its first trading day. FYI: it was planning to go public last year in a $1B deal, but that didn’t pan out.

Unique timing… FaZe’s debut comes at a time when public offerings and SPACs have been struggling. Given the inauspicious macro environment, many planned SPAC deals have been canceled or put on ice. SPACs boomed mid-pandemic, accounting for ~70% of all IPOs last year. DraftKings, Virgin Galactic, and Opendoor are just a few that went public through a SPAC. Now, the oversaturated market has lost steam and is riddled with losses.

Followers ≠ investors… FaZe calls itself the “first creator-based brand to go public,” but its impressive following may not be enough to lure investors. While it’s forecasting that revenue will nearly double this year to $90M, FaZe also expects a widening loss of $19M. In this unsteady environment, some investors have ditched “growth stocks” in favor of companies with steady profits. Companies that merged with SPACs lost half their value in the first six months of this year.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Suds: Fragrance icon Bath & Body Works slashed its annual sales forecast. The soap staple says #flation has washed up spending and made low-income shoppers more cost-conscious.
  • Jolt: Tesla posted better-than-expected revenue as sales revved up 42% last quarter. But profit margins from its core car biz fell as costs of components like battery cells spiked.
  • Nord: The European Commission proposed that member countries cut gas use by 15% through next March. The EU’s worried that Russia will continue slowing gas supply to the continent.
  • Ring: Regulators in India accused Chinese smart-phone makers Xiaomi, Vivo, and Oppo — which control 60% of the Indian market — of skirting taxes. The crackdown could raise tensions between the key trade partners.
  • Bill: UK regulators introduced rules for using stablecoins (cryptos whose prices are pegged to another asset) to Parliament as part of a larger financial-services bill. The US is also eyeing stablecoin regulation.

Thursday

  • Jobless claims
  • Earnings expected from Domino's, AT&T, Quest Diagnostics, Boston Beer Co., Philip Morris International, Tractor Supply Co., Capital One Financial, Union Pacific, SAP, Equifax, AutoNation, and Dow

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Tesla, and Netflix

ID: 2305162

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World

Tangential remarks

Nicolai Tangen, the CEO who holds the purse strings of Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, thinks that his fellow Europeans don’t quite stack up to US employees when it comes to pure hustle, telling the Financial Times in a recent interview that there is a difference in “the general level of ambition” and that “the Americans just work harder”. 

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked
Power

$2T is the new $1T

Alphabet’s phenomenal earnings yesterday was enough to push the search giant’s market cap beyond $2 trillion, joining the likes of NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft.

Sunset Moonrise in New York City

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$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

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Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Rani Molla4/25/24
Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).