Thursday Jan.26, 2023

🍞 Google’s bread threat

Getting toasty in here (Stefani Reynolds/Getty Images)
Getting toasty in here (Stefani Reynolds/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Pet food company Pedigree wants you to foster a pup… in the metaverse. Its Fosterverse lets Decentraland property owners foster avatars of real rescue dogs, and (hopefully) help them in real life too.

The S&P 500 ticked down yesterday after a raft of earnings, but was still on track for its best January since 2019. Tesla unveiled strong numbers after hours. Today all eyes are on fourth-quarter GDP. The US economy’s expected to have grown last quarter, despite big rate hikes.

Toast

Google’s profit-puppy ad biz is under threat as regulators crank up the heat on tech giants

Google’s bread-and-butter ad biz… could be toast. This week the Department of Justice filed an antitrust suit targeting Google’s golden goose: advertising. The goal is to break up its digital ad biz, which makes up 80% of the search leader’s sales. The suit alleges that Google abuses its role as one of the largest buyers, sellers, and brokers of digital ads and hurts competition.

  • Big yikes… for Google. The suit calls for the divestiture of Google’s ad exchange and the unwinding of “anticompetitive” ad-quisitions like DoubleClick.
  • Google says the suit “attempts to pick winners and losers in the highly competitive advertising technology sector,” arguing it would raise ad fees and hamper growth.
  • Searching for a friend… Eight states, including California and New York, joined the DOJ’s suit. The court battle could have serious consequences for the ad industry.

Google can buy itself flowers… but it’ll need to buy lots of lawyers, too, to deal with regulatory break-up tensions. This suit isn’t the only legal drama Google’s dealing with: in 2020 the DOJ filed a suit targeting its search dominance (think: how it’s the default in Safari). That case is expected to go to trial in September. Google’s facing three additional antitrust suits from state AGs. Oh, and in September the EU fined Google $4B after ruling it had broken competition rules — the EU’s second win in a trio of cases.

Tech’s biggest threat isn’t deceleration… it’s regulation. Growth slowdowns have been dominating headlines. But while macro trends can be temporary, regulatory crackdowns change a biz forever. Scrutiny has intensified in recent years: the FTC’s suing to block Microsoft’s $75B Activision acquisition, and it slapped Meta with two antitrust suits. The DOJ’s investigating Apple, while the EU has opened cases against Meta, Google, and others. Meanwhile, President Biden has urged lawmakers to rein in tech titans with legislation.

Hired

Tech layoffs are stealing the show, but economists say the job market's still a star

Glancing at the news... the job market looks rough — especially for tech workers. More than 57K layoffs were announced in the tech sector this month alone: IBM said yesterday it would cut nearly 4K jobs, Microsoft axed 10K, Salesforce said goodbye to 8K, and Amazon laid off 18K. Before that, Meta and Snap had let go of a combined 12K+ employees.

Dominating your LinkedIn feed… While tech layoffs turn heads, they pale in comparison to the jobs added during the industry-wide pandemic hiring spree. Google, which just laid off 12K employees, had added 37K jobs over the past year alone. California, where many tech cos are headquartered, gained 16.2K nonfarm payroll jobs in December, and the unemployment rate in the greater San Francisco area sat at just 2% last month. Meanwhile, Chicago is working hard to recruit laid-off foreign tech workers.

  • Let go to level up: Last year, 80% of laid-off tech workers found a new gig within three months. And over half of those rehired got pay increases.
  • Musical chairs: Three-fourths of let-go tech workers found new jobs in the same industry.

The tech market ≠ the job market… The "information" sector employs only 2% of US workers. Despite doom-and-gloom headlines, the overall unemployment rate is at historic lows and economists aren’t worried — so far. Just this week: Walmart, America’s largest private employer, said it's upping its minimum wage for store staff to retain and attract workers in a competitive labor market. We'll see whether that strength held up into the new year when January's employment numbers drop next week.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Muskular: Tesla unloaded record quarterly sales and said it drove home $3.7B in profit (another record). Still, Elon’s baby said it’s ramping cost cuts as it faces growing competition and economic uncertainty.
  • Pod: Juul, the struggling e-cig company (in)famous for popularizing fruit-flavored vapes that look like USBs, is reported to be in talks with three tobacco behemoths. It could be exploring a sale or other deal.
  • Arms: Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, the US’s largest defense contractors, secured record weapons orders as Russia’s war on Ukraine drags on. But supply challenges are making it a struggle to deliver.
  • Swifties: Live Nation was in the Senate hot seat yesterday as lawmakers grilled execs over Ticketmaster's botched sale of T. Swift concert tickets last year. At issue: Ticketmaster's perceived industry dominance.
  • NYSlip: A New York Stock Exchange "manual error” on Tuesday saw some stocks begin trading at inaccurate prices, which the NYSE said would be declared void. Trading losses are expected to be in the eight-figure range.

Thursday

  • US GDP numbers released for Q4
  • Earnings expected from: Visa, Valero, Mastercard, Comcast, Intel, SAP, Northrop Grumman, Southwest Airlines, and American Airlines

Authors of this Snacks own shares: of Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Snap, Tesla, and Walmart

ID: 2702198

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World

Tangential remarks

Nicolai Tangen, the CEO who holds the purse strings of Norway’s $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, thinks that his fellow Europeans don’t quite stack up to US employees when it comes to pure hustle, telling the Financial Times in a recent interview that there is a difference in “the general level of ambition” and thatthe Americans just work harder”. 

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked

Tangen has clearly been putting his money — or more specifically Norway’s — where his mouth is: the sprawling Norwegian oil fund, now one of the largest investors on the planet, has been pumping more capital into its US holdings in the past decade, while decreasing its investment into European entities.

The troublesome news for our European readers? Tangen might be onto something. According to data from the OECD, American workers are putting in almost 60 hours a year more than the weighted average for OECD nations… a benchmark that workers from countries in the European Union are already ~180 hours shy of.

Hours worked
Power

$2T is the new $1T

Alphabet’s phenomenal earnings yesterday was enough to push the search giant’s market cap beyond $2 trillion, joining the likes of NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft.

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$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

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Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

 Max Holloway and Mark Zuckerberg

Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

Rani Molla4/25/24
Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).