Tuesday Apr.23, 2019

Tesla's Ride-Sharing App Tease

_When you wish your driver wasn't human_
_When you wish your driver wasn't human_

Hey Snackers,

"Oil" is having a moment.

$75M of cooking oil is stolen from restaurants every year.

In markets, stocks barely budged yesterday — But oil prices popped to their highest level in six months after the US moved to completely cut Iran's oil exports to zero.

Home

Investors turn on Zillow's agent-cutting "iBuying" strategy

Feels like home... But isn't. Online real estate platform Zillow expanded its virtual reality feature Monday so you can tour that cozy 1-bedroom without schlepping there. But shares fell 4% on a WSJ report that its "iBuying" house-flipping strategy may "flop."

  • The iBuying concept: Zillow will buy your house, often without seeing it, based on the price its algorithm says it's worth. Then Zillow sells it so you don't have to.
  • Your benefit: Speed. Convenience. No dressing up your studio to let strangers in to judge it.
  • Your cost: You pay Zillow a higher selling fee for that service.

iBuying is like an affordable 2-BR NYC apartment w/ washer/dryer & AMAZING view... Maybe too good to be true. Zillow stock jumped 25% in Feb. when the CEO announced it was doubling down on iBuying. But shares are back down now on word Zillow's not making as much off the higher fee — And on the increased risks of owning tons of homes.

  • 2018: 4% of Zillow's revenue came from iBuying.
  • 2019: The percentage of revenue from house-flipping is predicted to rise to 41%.

Not all middlewomen can be cut... It's worked for mattresses and razor blades. But home selling is a unique, life-changing, big-money event. People may just want the handholding of a real estate agent, even if it costs money and time, to make sure the sale goes down smooth. Zillow's betting against that.

Self-drive

Tesla details 2020 Robotaxi plans

Set your watch to Elon-time... which is typically 18 months late. That's critical context for Tesla's big autonomous driving update — Just as other carmakers push back timetables for robotaxis, CEO Elon Musk said this Monday:

  • The surprise: “All Teslas produced today have everything necessary for full self-driving — All you need to do is improve the software.“
  • The bold claim: He's "very confident" Teslas will be fully self-drivable by next year.

Airbnb your Tesla in an Uber network for Teslas... Here's the vision revealed Monday: Once the Teslas can drive themselves, owners can add their cars to the Tesla Ride-Sharing App. Elon sees it like this:

  1. Tesla owner doesn't need it for a few hours, so switches to "share mode".
  2. That Tesla gets summoned by someone who needs a ride.
  3. Self-driving system handles entire ride (don't forget to rate the robodriver).
  4. Tesla returns to the parking spot to await its owner.
  5. The ride fare gets split: Tesla keeps 25%-30%, Tesla owner keeps the rest.

This announcement was sooo Tesla... Shares are down over 30% from their high on weak 1st quarter sales and endless legal/boardroom issues. But Musk wants investors to look past today's drama for tomorrow's moonshot ideas.

  • If Tesla can offer customers electric cars that can also earn them money Airbnb-style, that's powerful.
  • If Tesla can't, Elon needs another trick/event.
Talent

Kraft Heinz hires new CEO to end stock dive

Cue the hazing ritual... Kraft Heinz announced Monday it's replacing its CEO with Miguel Patricio. Shares barely budged on the switch, but they're still down 43% in the past 12 months. Some of that's caused by you not eating hot dogs and mac anymore. The rest is on the company:

  1. Kraft Heinz revealed in Feb. that its Oscar Mayer and Kraft brands were worth $15B less than expected.
  2. Then it cut its quarterly dividend payout to shareholders by over a third because of smaller profits.
  3. And the SEC's investigating it over something in its accounting books.

An "obsession for cutting costs"... That's been the un-fun, un-secret, unsuccessful formula baked into Kraft Heinz lately. It's the business doctrine of Brazilian private equity firm 3G, which teamed up with Warren Buffett to finance the $49B Kraft and Heinz merger back in 2015 (3G also bought Budweiser). Cutting company-wide budgets may have made some short term extra profits, but insiders say it's hurting long term sales.

Kraft's pulling a 180... "I bring a very different profile" (Patricio's words, not ours). The former Budweiser exec focuses on more than just ruthless low-cost efficiency — He expanded beer brands abroad at Bud. Now Kraft Heinz wants him to pour the same marketing formula on its ketchup to revive sales.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Hungry: Beyond Meat targets $1.2B valuation when it becomes the first plant-based meat company to IPO
  • Boarding: Bed Bath & Beyond shakes up its board because activist investors told it to
  • Plastic: PayPal's Venmo closes in on a new partnership to launch a credit card
  • Raincheck: Samsung delays launch of its $2K, foldable phone because of "screen failures"
  • Heated: Goldman Sachs releases its Sustainability Report on Earth Day (spoiler alert: change is hard)

Tuesday

Disclosure: An author of this Snacks owns Tesla shares.

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Latest Stories

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.