Wednesday May.15, 2019

Walmart's free-shipping mic-drop

_Not-1-day shipping_
_Not-1-day shipping_

Hey Snackers,

Subtle. Uber stealthily released "Quiet Mode" — full-zen ride silence with your driver (sadly for UberBlack only).

Its shares made noise with their first positive day yet (up 8% Tuesday). So did most other stocks as the Dow rebounded by 207 points while investors relaxed mid-trade-war.

Overnight

Walmart one-ups Amazon Prime: Free. One-day. Shipping. (boom)

Tou-freaking-ché… A month after Amazon announced it’ll cut shipping time in half for Prime members, Walmart countered: Free next-day delivery to anyone in Vegas or Phoenix on 220K items (as long as you spend $35). By next year, 75% of Americans will have access to 1-day shipping. Your move, @JeffBezos.

Speed kills... Walmart's move is expensive (for Walmart), but it could stop Walmart-faithful from defecting to Amazon. Here's the expected bill:

  • Walmart: UBS analysts estimate $215M in incremental costs to prep its warehouses for 1-day shipping (plus Walmart's promised that each order will arrive in 1 box).
  • Amazon: It's investing $800M to give Primers their goods by “EOD tomorrow.”
  • Fun fact: One reason it’ll cost Amazon more to do the same thing is it ships way more packages than Walmart — Walmart's ecommerce biz is just 7% as big as Amazon's.

Thank competition... Amazon liberated the world from late-night toilet paper runs, earning it 47% of all US online sales today. But Walmart has upped its ecommerce game — buying Jet.com for $3B, renovating its website, launching online grocery pickup, and (now) free 1-day shipping. That keeps Amazon honest. Bezos can't just jack up Prime prices and lie back on 2-day delivery. When Amazon and Walmart compete, lazy online shoppers win.

Sue

Victims get $2B from Bayer for cancerous weedkiller

Top 10 lists are fun... This one isn't. A California jury awarded $2B from Bayer to two non-Hodgkin Lymphoma suffers. Blame Bayer's Roundup weedkiller for causing it (according to the verdict). It’s the 8th biggest product-defect award ever, so Bayer’s appealing as its shares fell 2% Tuesday.

FYI, the World Health Org. thinks Roundup probably causes cancer. America’s EPA doesn’t.

What’s the return policy on Monsanto?… Germany’s top chemical company was built through the humble invention of Aspirin in 1899. A century later, Bayer dabbled in high-finance by acquiring US-based Monsanto last year for $66B. Here's what it's received from the St. Louis company:

  • Added profits: Bayer snagged Monsanto for the $2B in annual profits it was generating on genetically-modified crop seeds, plant fertilizers, and other blasphemies to organic eating.
  • Added lawsuits: It's lost three lawsuits connected to Monsanto's Roundup so far, with verdicts of $2B, $289M, and $80M. There are ~13K more suing.
  • The result: Bayer stock is down 44% since its Monsanto wedding day in June of ’18.

Look out for major baggage… The merger and acquisition process involves “due diligence” — pretty much a full corporate checkup to make sure there’s nothing unexpected in the company being acquired. Bayer missed this giant legal liability when it acquired Monsanto. Look out for weeds.

Wear

Ralph Lauren drops 4% (its Gen Z pandering may not be working)

Unpop the collar... Ralph Lauren's latest quarterly earnings would impress Anna Wintour: Revenues beat analysts' expectations and profits hit $32M. It's even gift-bagging that all for Ralph Lauren shareholders by increasing the dividend they receive by 10%. Then shares fell 4% off the catwalk.

Malloting a croquet ball while riding a purebred steed... Doesn't really work for post-Millennial Gen Z. Ralph knows it needs to replace aging customers with young blood. Here's its approach, which its CEO calls the "Next Great Chapter Plan":

  • Extra influencer marketing: It just signed 23-year-old model Taylor Hill and her boyfriend to flaunt the polo horses on Insta. #powercouple
  • The "Drop": It markets limited edition streetwear stuff that can only be bought on the app. The kids these days love exclusivity and mobile shopping.
  • "Family is who you love": That's the name of the new ad campaign — TV spots nudging perceptions of the brand to a new direction. Less country club prep, more modern families.

Not all sales are created equal... Although investors were impressed by two of the big items (sales and profits), they were bummed to see sales drop in Ralph's home closet. That's a sign that the fundamental changes the company's working on might not be working.

  • 📉 Sales in North America (which is 50% of total company sales) fell 7%.
  • 📈 Sales in Europe (31% of total) rose 4%.
  • 📈 Sales in Asia (19% of total) popped up 6%.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Overheard: Spotify is testing its own version of social media Stories called "Storyline" so you can truly follow Adele
  • Breakup: Grinder, Earth's largest LGBTQ social networking app, is 60% owned by a Chinese firm — So the US is making them sell their stake on "national security" worries
  • Owned: Disney takes "full operational control" of streamer Hulu from cable OG Comcast
  • Privacy: San Francisco becomes 1st US city to ban police from using facial recognition tech
  • Fire: Tilray jumps 5% as it pulls the "selling pot in Canada is a hard job (regulations, too much demand), but someone's gotta do it" move
  • Infiltrated: Facebook's Whatsapp was "targeted by an advanced cyber actor." Aka, it was hacked.

Wednesday

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Latest Stories

Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

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2024-04-22-1-america-importing-less-from-china

The US now buys more goods from Mexico than from China

Chinese imports are down as companies begin to "nearshore" in Mexico

2024-04-22-paramount-global-site

Multiple bidders want to buy Paramount Global’s sprawling media assets

Junk

How much of the world’s plastic is recycled? Only a fraction

Landfills still account for the majority of plastic disposal

Markets

Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/22/24

AI needs so much electricity that tech companies are getting into the energy business

To accommodate tech companies’ pivots to artificial intelligence, tech companies are increasingly investing in ways to power AI’s immense electricity needs.

Most recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman invested in Exowatt, a company using solar power to feed data centers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

Super Bowl Winning Team Head Coach and MVP Press Conference

Private equity is eating sports

Private equity firms may soon own your favorite football franchise.