Friday Dec.23, 2022

🚗 Tesla’s having a surprise year-end sale, as the EV maker tries to recharge demand

Just missing the bow on top (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Just missing the bow on top (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Actual showstopper: that Netflix password 100M people have been borrowing is finally going the way of the DVD as the company fights slowing growth. Love is not sharing a password?

Stocks finished yesterday lower, with tech leading the sell-off. Meanwhile, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are on pace for their worst yearly performance since 2008.

BTW: We’ll be back in your inbox on January 3 with a futuristic edition to ring in the new year. Till then, Snackers, happy holidays!

Charge

Tesla’s offering a rare year-end sale on its most popular models as EV affordability and demand dwindle

Clear out the garage… Tesla’s offering a rare year-end sale on its most popular cars as it looks to supercharge demand. Starting this week, the EV icon’s offering $7.5K off Model 3 and Model Y orders delivered in the US by the end of the month. FYI: those are Tesla’s least pricey cars, and they typically make up the majority of deliveries. The discount is double the $3,750 credit Tesla offered earlier this month (and includes 10K miles of free supercharging). Plus:

  • Charged up: The discount comes days after the Treasury Department delayed restrictions on EV incentives until March, so Teslas can qualify for the full $7.5K credits until then.
  • Sold out: Despite Tesla's history of rushing year-end deliveries to meet targets, discounts are rare for the carmaker (and may not be enough to drive sales).

Tesla’s no good, very bad year… Shares of Tesla are down 60%+ this year and are on pace for their worst-ever annual performance. In October, Tesla said it would miss its delivery goals for the year as slowing growth and supply-chain disruptions hit drop-offs. Meanwhile, some customers have started to cancel or delay deliveries until the EV credits kick in next year. It’s not the only speed bump:

  • Investors say: CEO Elon Musk's controversial leadership over at Twitter could be a risk to Tesla’s brand (and sales).
  • Elon says: Tesla demand is still hot, and experts say the stock's troubles are due to more people moving their $$ out of equities and into savings accounts.

Lower prices can raise the stakes… Since more people have paid top dollar for new cars during the car shortage, most automakers haven't had to offer discounts. While promos could give Tesla a last-minute boost, it could also be a sign that demand isn’t quite as strong as expected. That’s bad timing with competition heating up. Some analysts say that by 2025 Tesla's share of the EV market could drop to under 20%.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Shop: From mascara to Christmas trees, TikTokers are turning everyday products into viral hits — and companies can’t keep them in stock. This year, 30% of social-media users bought something because of an influencer.
  • Pause: Gamers are suing Microsoft to stop its $69B Activision takeover. The FTC also sued the tech giant this month over concerns that its popular consoles (like: Xbox) could funnel players and control prices.
  • Freeze: From American to Delta to Spirit, airlines are canceling thousands of flights as a huge winter storm rips across the US. The delays could be especially costly for airlines that’ve shelled out extra $$ to staff up for the holidays.

Friday

  • New-home sales

ID: 2653297

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Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

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Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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