Friday Jun.25, 2021

📵 Big Tech's big antitrust moment

_Big Tech's bad news week [AdShooter/E+ via GettyImages]_
_Big Tech's bad news week [AdShooter/E+ via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

We're imaging the moment Netflix execs saw this show come across their desks and said "let's do it." If you've been waiting for a reality dating show featuring people with prosthetic monster faces, "Sexy Beasts" has arrived.

Stocks jumped on falling jobless claims, and other positive signs for the labor market.

Anti

Big Tech is feeling serious heat: feat. six major antitrust bills and a new FTC head

"Not vibes"... Big Tech's current thought bubble. Antitrust issues have dominated the news for a long time, but this week turned up the heat in a big way. Yesterday, a House committee approved sweeping legislation to curb the dominance of Google, Facebook, and their Big Tech frenemies.

  • Six-bill package: Not the kind Bezos likes to receive. Of the six bills that were advanced, one hits hardest: legislation that would prohibit Big Tech companies from playing favorites with their own products on their platforms.
  • Think: Apple not promoting Apple Music over Spotify in the App Store, and Amazon not favoring Amazon Basics in search results.
  • Buuuut: The bills still need to pass the full House to become law, and tech giants are lobbying harder than ever to make sure they don't.

More tech woes... The legislation would also give federal agencies like the FTC way more muscle to block Big Tech acquisitions of startups (like FB & Instagram nine years ago). Last week: Big Tech critic Lina Khan was sworn in to lead the FTC, the US gov't agency that enforces antitrust laws.

  • Google and Apple say the bills could bring significant security concerns, while making the user experience worse.
  • While the legislation has bipartisan support, critics in Congress say it would give too much power to the government in Big Tech operations.

Antitrust just got a whole lot anti-er... That could hit Big Tech where it hurts: in the balance sheet. The aggressiveness of tech lobbying shows how serious of a threat these developments are. If the bills pass, that might make room for smaller companies to compete.

Rollup

BuzzFeed is going public via SPAC-quisition in a bid to compete with the "triopoly"

What Twilight character are you?... Jacob SPAC. BuzzFeed announced plans to go public via SPAC-quisition, which would value the combined company at $1.5B — $200M less than BuzzFeed was worth in 2016. BuzzFeed also plans to buy digital publisher Complex for $300M. Its goal: become a digital media giant.

Sad listicle... Digital media companies have been struggling for years to compete with Facebook, Google, and ad newbie Amazon — aka: where most of the advertising bucks go. 15-year-old BuzzFeed is no exception to the struggle, with missed revenue targets and layoffs on its record. Now it's hungry for mergers.

  • Last year, BuzzFeed acquired HuffPost from Verizon. And its CEO reportedly held talks to merge with competitors including Vice, Vox, and PopSugar-owner Group Nine. Now it's getting Complex.
  • In BF's own words: "With this acquisition, BuzzFeed becomes even better-positioned to thrive in an age of media consolidation."

Big Media might be necessary... to survive in a Big Tech world. The Facebook-Google-Amazon "triopoly" ate nearly 90% of the digital-ad market last year, up from 80% in 2019. BuzzFeed thinks there's power in numbers, so it's rallying digital media companies under its umbrella to take on the triopoly. SPAC cash could help it make future acquisitions. But even with those, it's unclear if it can succeed long-term.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Deal: President Biden agreed to sign a $1B infrastructure deal with a bipartisan group of senators, after long negotiations.
  • Choco: Google is delaying its plan to remove cookies to late 2023. Cookies = tiny pieces of data that track your browsing activity.
  • CryptOut: UK police seized $160M worth of cryptocurrency in one of the largest crypto seizures ever.
  • Drug: Eli Lilly plans to seek expedited FDA approval for its Alzheimer’s drug, after the FDA's historic approval of Biogen's "aducanumab."

Friday

  • Earnings expected from Paychex and Carmax

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft

ID: 1699329

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Business
Rani Molla
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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.