Tuesday Oct.12, 2021

💊 The Covid pill

Two days late for the one-day NFT convention [bymuratdeniz/E+ via Getty Images]
Two days late for the one-day NFT convention [bymuratdeniz/E+ via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

If your sauvignon tastes like Grey Poupon, it probably is: The mustard icon just debuted a condiment-infused wine called “La Moutarde Vin” — and it’s already sold out.

Stocks edged down to close the day, as investors stressed about inflation. Now all eyes are on earnings season, which kicks off this week with banks like Chase, Citi, and Morgan Stanley. Investors want to see if rising prices hit companies’ profits.

Pill

The Covid pill: Merck seeks FDA approval for its first-of-a-kind drug — it could be big

Hard to swallow... because “molnupiravir” is a mouthful. American pharma giant Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics just filed for FDA approval of molnupiravir — aka the Covid pill. If approved, it would be the first swallowable antiviral Covid drug. So far, Gilead’s remdesivir is the only FDA-approved antiviral, but it's just for hospital patients and has to be injected. Merck said its pill reduced hospitalizations and deaths by half in high-risk people with Covid.

  • Only people with Covid can take the treatment (eight pills/day for five days). The goal: Prevent cases from leading to hospitalizations, which carry a dangerous health toll, and cost an average of $20K per stay.
  • We're still waiting on final results from Merck's big study, but the FDA could clear the pill in the next few weeks.

Winter is coming... and it could be chilly. Sheltering indoors could lead to another Covid surge. Merck is pushing to get this pill out: It's already started production and plans to manufacture 10M treatment courses this year. Oh, and it has a $1.2B contract to provide 1.7M courses to the US gov't, at $712 for each five-day course — or 40X what it reportedly costs to produce.

Pharma’s Covid story is far from over... And pills could play a big role, both for those who aren’t vaxxed, and for those who can't. While 80% of US adults are vaccinated, more than half of the world's population hasn't gotten a shot, and only 35% is fully vaxxed. Since unvaccinated people are 11X more likely to die from Covid, the pill could lower death rates in countries with poor vaccine access — if Merck makes it affordable. Merck says it plans to price its pill based on the wealth of the country buying it.

Rep

Southwest cancels 2K+ flights, grounding its reputation as flight demand takes off

Scratch the fuzzy pink neck pillow... and forget the Biscoff cookies. Southwest Airlines cancelled 2K+ flights between Saturday and Monday, causing headaches from Miami to Denver. SW blamed the cancellation-palooza on air-traffic issues and bad weather. Awkward, since the FAA reported no air-traffic-control issues, and angry customers posted pics of baby-blue skies. SW shares sank as much as 3% yesterday.

The rumors were flying… unlike Southwest’s planes. Critics speculated that the cancellations stemmed from pilots’ massive “sick-in” protest of SW’s vaccine mandate. But SW — and the pilots’ union — said the cancellations weren’t part of a protest. Instead, they may have stemmed from Southwest’s opportunistic pandemic strategy:

  • Unpredictable moves: While American Airlines and Delta cut flights in smaller cities to save cash mid-pandemic, Southwest expanded to 18 new destinations to try to grab market share.
  • Predictable delays: As flight demand ramped up quickly, SW struggled to staff its new flights. This summer, one-third of SW flights were late — much more compared to those of its rivals.
  • In context: 30% of Southwest flights were cancelled on Sunday. The next most affected airline, American, cancelled just 2% of its flights.

It’s hard to refund a canceled rep… The financial cost of cancellations is bad for airlines, but the reputation cost is worse. Southwest soared to success with low prices and an aggressive expansion strategy. But after this PR nightmare, thousands of travelers may avoid it at a time when travel is rebounding. Domestic travel is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, and is expected to keep growing. But Southwest could miss out.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Boost: A key FDA panel is meeting this week to debate the safety and effectiveness of Moderna’s and J&J's booster shots.
  • Honeycomb: Netflix is teaming up with Walmart to create a digital storefront for merch from "Squid Game" and other original hit shows.
  • Fortnite: Apple is appealing a judge's decision that it can no longer bar app developers (cough, Epic Games) from using non-Apple payment systems.
  • 5G: US sanctions on Huawei have caused the Chinese telecom giant to lose its lead in the global smartphone market.
  • Royal: Mental-health coaching startup BetterUp is now worth $4.7B, nearly triple what it was worth eight months ago when it hired Prince Harry.
  • Clickbait: Facebook says it’s going for “more friends, less politics” in people’s feeds, after a high-level whistleblower accused it of putting profits over mental health.

Tuesday

  • Earnings expected from Fastenal

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Apple, Netflix, Delta, and Moderna

ID: 1871746

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World

Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

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China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

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Business
Rani Molla
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Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢