"Why haven't you ordered your Canada Goose yet?!"
Hey Snackers,
Zoom has been a great democratizer of fashion. Gucci loafers and Marshall slippers have the same status on Zoom: invisible. Prada's not about it, so it's putting its huge logo on shirt collars so you can flex on the conference.
Stocks ticked up yesterday even after the, uh... "debate" on Tuesday night, which inspired as much confidence as a wingless plane. Investors were hopeful about some positive job growth for September.
Throw in AirPods and a Starbucks latte... and the Canada Goose fit is complete. Canada Goose stock popped 8% yesterday because it's the corona-conomy winner that came in from the cold. The stock just got a confidence-boosting analyst upgrade, now that winter is coming and outdoor activities seem here to stay:
It's gonna be a long, cold winter... Love Island, Upper East Side. Canada Goose's sales fell 63% last quarter compared to last year and the stock slipped 30% from January to early September. Tight wallets, closed stores, and no travel hurt its fur-lined pockets. Buuut: the stock is up 30% this month as Northeasterners prep for a pandemic winter.
Canada Goose could thrive in a K-shaped and V-shaped recovery ... If the economic recovery turns out to be V-shaped, as President Trump says, then most Americans will quickly recover economically (and wealthy Americans will continue to buy $1K parkas). If it turns out to be K-shaped, as Joe Biden says, then only wealthy Americans will quickly rebound (and will still buy $1K parkas). But the recovery could also take neither of those shapes.
The opposite of magical... Disney is laying off 28K employees across its Parks and Experiences division — around 67% are part-time workers. Disney’s parks in Florida, Paris, and Shanghai have reopened with limited capacity, but its major CA parks are still shut. That's a massive hit to the entire biz.
And then there's "popcorn Disney"... While we don't have the official numbers yet for the $300M budget "Mulan," we do know that Disney postponed almost all of its movies scheduled for release in 2020. Marvel blockbuster “Black Widow" was pushed back to May 2021. That's another big hit to Disney's wallet.
There's a light at the end of Splash Mountain... While Disney's parks and movies divisions are struggling, its streaming and cable network segments are thriving. Disney's streaming networks (Disney+, ESPN+, and Hulu) now enjoy over 100M subscribers, and Disney's ESPN is finally back with live sports to watch. That means more subscription and ad revenue to soothe Mickey's woes. That's why Disney stock is up since its (brutal) earnings in August.
Like a DM vs. a $10 Papyrus greeting card... Direct Listings are generally cheaper and faster than IPOs. When a company chooses to take its stock public via DL instead of IPO'ing, they aren't creating new shares to sell. Owners of private stock (early investors and employees) unleash their existing shares to the public, so the company isn't raising any fresh cash. Yesterday, two companies took this simpler route to going public:
I'm different, yeah I'm different... DLs are rare, but it's even more unusual to see non-consumery companies do them. Only two well-known companies, Slack and Spotify, have DL'd (until yesterday). Their stocks soared on Day 1 since we're all familiar with what they do. Not so much for Palantir and Asana.
Going public is turning into an "à la carte" menu... and companies are taking advantage of the options. Before, there was 1 way to go public: the expensive prix-fixe menu IPO (no, you can't swap fish for the meatballs). Companies have been increasingly looking to DLs and SPACs to go public without paying fees to banks. Private companies will be following Asana and Palantir's stock to gauge the success of this new option.
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Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Disney, Shopify, and Amazon
ID: 1349520