Friday Oct.16, 2020

🚗 Nio's EV battery subscription

_When your Sleep Number Score is worse than your ACT score_
_When your Sleep Number Score is worse than your ACT score_

Hey Snackers,

He's baaaaack: an unidentified man was spotted flying in a jetpack 6,000 feet over the Los Angeles airport... again. Elon?

Stocks fell yesterday as new COVID-19 cases hit records in Europe. Paris triggered nightly curfews, and London banned mixing with other households indoors.

Swap

Nio stock has surged, but we’re more interested in its battery subscription

Red pill or blue pill, Nio?... This six-year-old luxury EV maker is on both. Nio, sometimes called "the Tesla of China," has been on a wild ride this year. Kicking off 2020, Nio had a bad rap as a cash-bleeder:

  • Red pill: In December 2019, Nio stock had plunged more than 70% since going public in 2018. The company had lost $6B since its launch and was almost out of cash. Now...
  • Blue pill: Nio stock has soared ~700% since April 29, when it got a $1B cash injection from Chinese government-backed investors.
  • New pill: The stock is up 30% this week thanks to analyst upgrades on "strong order backlogs" and growth momentum.

Not quite Musky... Unlike Tesla, which recently reported four-straight profitable quarters, Nio has never notched a profit. In 2019, it delivered just ~20K cars compared to Tesla's ~367K. But Nio has a cool differentiator:

  • Battery Swapping: Nio's Battery-as-a-Service lets you swap your EV battery for a freshly charged one at one of its 130+ stations (instead of waiting for it to juice up).
  • The subscription costs ~$145/month, but you get $10K off the price of the actual car (since the battery is the most expensive part).

The lifestyle brand factor is a huge part of it... Like Tesla, Nio has built a cult following. Before it ever sold a car, it spent millions on cranking out Nio hats and merch. It also created "Nio Houses," sleek showroom-clubhouses for Nio owners to chill in. Nio and Tesla have both grown by fueling deep brand love.

Snooze

The power of the pivot: Sleep Number thrives on techy WiFi Smart Beds

Eat, sleep number, repeat... OG mattress company Sleep Number just woke from a deep slumber. Sleep's quarterly profit nearly doubled from last year, and sales popped 12% as we all worked from bed. The stock soared yesterday on the news. But this is really a Health & Wellness story...

  • If you can track it, you can techify it. Sleep Number shifted to selling only snooze-tracking Smart Beds in 2018 and has been making a wellness play since.
  • Sounds familiar. D2C mattress company Casper called sleep the “3rd pillar of wellness” after nutrition and fitness.
  • The OG is beating the newbie. Sleep Number is way ahead of millennial-friendly Casper on snooze-tech, and its stock is beating Casper's this year, too.

"Life-changing"... How Sleep's CEO describes the 360 Smart Beds. She says they've "improved nearly 13 million lives and counting" (that's deep). These beds make sure your Zzzs get on the WiFi:

  • Tracking: The bed tracks your heart rate, breathing, and sleep/wake cycles, stalking your every movement.
  • Temperature control: The bed creates your "personal microclimate," balancing surface temp while warming your feet.
  • SleepIQ Score: You get a SleepIQ score along with a monthly in-app wellness report (70 to 100 = siesta master).

Sleep Number embodies the Power of the Pivot... After going full-smart-bed in 2018, Sleep Number completed its transformation from declining old mattress company to techy growing "wellness" company. That's helped it notch double-digit demand growth for the past three years.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • K-popped: Shares of Big Hit, the management group behind boy band phenom BTS, popped on their first day of trading in South Korea.
  • Invested: Goldman Sachs' profit nearly doubled from last year thanks to strong bond-trading results.
  • Snaptok: Snapchat releases a TikTok-rivaling feature called “Sounds on Snapchat” (great name) that lets you add millions of songs to videos.
  • Fam: Tesla says it will begin production of its 7-seater Model Y in November, with deliveries set for December.
  • Swiped: Payment processor Stripe drops over $200M on Nigerian startup Paystack to expand its biz to the high-growth African market.
  • Cruise: GM's autonomous driving unit Cruise plans to test unmanned self-driving cars this year in SF.

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Friday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Snap and Tesla

ID: 1371064

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.