Tuesday Sep.14, 2021

⭐️ Facebook's secret celeb list

_XCheck status [Hill Street Studios/Stone via GettyImages]_
_XCheck status [Hill Street Studios/Stone via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Talk about a mid-week getaway: SpaceX's launch this week will take four civilians 360 miles from Earth for three days. It would be the first civilian-only space mission.

Stocks ticked up yesterday as shares of energy companies rallied. Now, investors have their eyes on Democrats' proposed $3.5T spending plan. We're diving in below.

Celeb

Facebook's secret moderation program exempts some celebs from usual posting restrictions

VIP pug life… A bombshell WSJ report revealed Facebook rolled out the moderation red carpet for at least 5.8M celeb users — including Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, soccer star Neymar, and even Doug the Pug. The drama revolves around a secret program known as “XCheck,” which shields millions of VIP users from FB's normal moderation process — kind of like an invisible verified badge.

  • For "regular" users, AI usually scans posts for rule-breaking content and quickly removes it if there’s an infraction. Meanwhile...
  • XCheck accounts are placed on a "whitelist" that allows them to post without the same level of scrutiny or repercussions (the moderation equivalent of bottle service).

Reporting politicians... It happens. Famous people get reported more than Berta from Oregon, even if their posts aren't flag-worthy. XCheck was conceived as a quality-control measure for actions taken against these high-profile accounts.

  • The problem: XCheck only reviewed A-lister content less than 10% of the time, according to WSJ. For example: In 2019, Neymar posted naked images of a woman who accused him of sexual assault.
  • Due to XCheck bias, 56M Facebook and Insta users saw the post before it was finally removed. While FB admits XCheck has flaws, it’s still not technically liable for its users' posts because of Section 230.

This drama adds fuel to the fire… the big, familiar fire. Social giants like FB and Twitter have been accused of letting abusive content run rampant, not applying moderation policies equally, and acting more like editors than social platforms. The mishandling of XCheck gives ammo to legislators who’ve argued for years that social giants should bear more liability for users' posts. TBD if they ever will.

Hike

Dems propose $2.9T tax hike for high earners and big businesses to pay for Biden’s $3.5T agenda

A taxing weekend… House Democrats proposed a plan to raise up to $2.9T in tax dollars over the next 10 years, the biggest tax hike in decades. The goal: pay for Biden’s ambitious $3.5T plan to expand America’s social safety net and combat climate change. Lawmakers plan to vote this week on the proposals. Whose taxes would be affected:

  • Individuals who make $400K+ per year and married couples that make $450K+ would pay higher taxes on income and capital gains — nearly 40% on income vs. the current 37%.
  • Corporations that make more than $5M in income/year would pay a 26.5% tax rate, up from 21%.
  • Small businesses that make less than $400K/year would pay lower taxes (18%).

9 am hike up Capitol Hill… Expect some sweat. Democrats don’t need Republican support to pass the plan — but they’ll need just about every Dem vote. Progressives are committed to the plan, even though the tax hikes aren’t as high as Biden's original pitch. But some moderates like Joe Manchin aren’t sold.

  • Pros: The plan could raise trillions of dollars to rebuild America's aging infrastructure, fight climate change, invest in public housing, and expand public education.
  • Cons: It could stifle economic growth — think: reduced corporate hiring and investment. The US could also lose corporate investment activity to countries with lower tax rates.

Higher corporate taxes = lower corporate profits… which could mean falling stock prices, at least in the short term. Stocks soared in 2017 when ex-President Trump cut corporate taxes, making companies more profitable overnight. Biden’s tax increase would partially roll back those cuts, reducing the cash companies keep as profit. Since stock prices often reflect investors’ expectations of future returns — think: dividends, cash flow, rising prices — lower profits could mean lower expectations.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Bananas: Intuit, which owns TurboTax and Credit Karma, is buying email marketing company Mailchimp for $12B.
  • Butter: Disney will release the rest of its 2021 movies exclusively in theaters before dropping them on Disney+, following its recent box office success.
  • ByeBa: Shares of Alibaba, aka: the Amazon of China, slumped on a report that China wants to break up its affiliate Alipay, a payments giant with 1B+ users.
  • Tablet: Toast, the restaurant-tech company that helps your local cafe take your card, is seeking a $16B valuation in its IPO next week.
  • Cheerio: Cereal legend General Mills says it'll have to raise prices, as the labor shortage and Hurricane Ida aggravate supply chain issues.
  • Track: Period-tracking app Flo, which has 200M users, raised $50M at a $800M valuation as the women's health tech boom continues.

Tuesday

  • Earnings expected from Oracle

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Disney and Amazon

ID: 1835647

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.