Monday Sep.27, 2021

📱Insta’s mental health toll

_Remembering where the Bed Bath & Beyond coupons are stashed [sturti/E+ via GettyImages]_
_Remembering where the Bed Bath & Beyond coupons are stashed [sturti/E+ via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

Zillow-scrolling just got weirder: homeowners are trying to make their listing photos stand out in the hot housing market by featuring knights, aliens, and dinosaurs conducting household activities. TBD if T-Rex is included in the listing price.

Stocks ticked higher, despite a rocky week rumbled by fears that China's Evergrande could cause global turmoil if it can't pay its $300B debt. And you thought your credit card bill was high.

Social

Facebook’s Spiral: secret docs reveal the extent of Insta’s mental health toll on young users

Rough week for PR... WSJ got its hands on some juicy Facebook-internal docs, and the bad headlines have been snowballing. Controversies include: a secret Facebook moderation program that exempts celebs from usual posting restrictions, and a test initiative that pushed positive news stories about FB to users. The latest shocking revelation: FB has extensive internal research showing that Instagram is toxic for teens.

Not a secret... Criticism of social media's impact on mental health has been building for years, amplified by documentaries like The Social Dilemma and vocal lawmakers. What's notable about FB is the scale of the problem. FB researchers consistently found that Insta is harmful for a significant percentage of users — especially young girls.

  • 32% of teen girls said that when they felt bad about their bodies, Instagram made them feel worse.
  • 6% of American users who reported suicidal thoughts traced those desires to Instagram. For British users, it was 13%.
  • +178%: Suicide deaths for children ages 10 to 14 nearly tripled from 2007 to 2017, when social media saw mass adoption.

The paradox... The most problematic social app features also seem to drive the most engagement — along with profits and stock prices. Last quarter, FB's revenue soared, and profit nearly doubled to $9.5B. Snap and TikTok are also experiencing strong growth, largely thanks to young users who are growing up with these apps:

  • 40%+ of Insta users are 22 and younger. Snap reaches 90% of US 13- to 24-year-olds. And 60% of TikTok users are between the ages of 16 and 24.

We might be reaching a tipping point... Despite all the bad PR, social companies' revenue engines are thriving. Extensive regulations exist to protect our physical health (think: the FDA for food and drugs, and the NHTSA for driving). But we don't have many guardrails to protect mental health. If social giants start seeing regulatory and public criticism hit their balance sheets, an inflection point could force change. Already, lawmakers are pressing Facebook to abandon its plan to launch Instagram for kids.

Zoom Out

Stories we're watching...

Surreal estate... Last week, markets wobbled as Chinese property giant Evergrande missed an $83M payment — and it’s just the tip of a $300B debt iceberg. Investors fear that Evergrande's collapse could cause a Lehman-esque global stock slump, and throw markets into turmoil. If Evergrande defaults, its financial partners, including HSBC, BlackRock, and UBS, could lose big money. Investors are watching to see if Evergrande will come up with the cash during its 30-day grace period — or miss more payments.

You're gonna need a bigger boat... More like a higher ceiling. Quick refresher: The US Treasury’s borrowing is limited by a “debt ceiling.” If it needs more cash, it asks Congress to raise the cap. Now, the US needs a higher ceiling to cover trillions worth of Covid expenses, but Congress can’t agree on a limit. If a deal doesn't happen, the US could default on its debts for the first time. Analysts say there’s a 20% chance of default, which could wipe out as many as 6M jobs and $15T in wealth.

Events

Coming up this week...

Bed Bath & Beyond expectations... When you finally get the fitted sheet on the twin bed. Last quarter, Bed Bath & Beyond's sales of bathroom and home organization products surpassed pre-pandemic levels, doubling from last year. Cue: BB&B raised its annual sales expectations, and expanded its DoorDash partnership to offer more delivery. We’ll see if the bedding icon saw a back-to-college boost when it reports quarterly earnings Thursday.

Fashion vs. #Flation... Consumer spending surged this spring when shoppers “revenge spent” on new outfits and plane tickets after a couch-bound year. While boosted unemployment benefits have ended, $300/month child tax credits (#SecretStimulus) are now getting doled out. Experts expect spending to keep rising, but prices are also continuing to rise (#inflated). We’ll see if "revenge spending" has continued when inflation-adjusted consumer spending numbers drop on Friday.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

  • Beat: Universal Music shares soared 40% last Tuesday after going public, as the $53B music giant competes to make a soundtrack for the digital economy.
  • Mine: Ford partnered with "urban mining" company Redwood Materials to recycle its EV batteries from cars like the Mustang Mach-E.
  • IRL: Amazon reportedly plans to open physical department stores that feature QR codes, touch screens, and techy dressing rooms. The goal: end "retail ghosting."

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Innovate: How billionaires' quest to "live forever" could benefit everyone.
  • Chill: How to interrupt anxious thoughts, according to a psychotherapist.
  • Work: A way to answer the dreaded "tell me about yourself" interview question.
  • Snooze: How to get the most out of your sleep (since you're prob not getting enough).

This Week

  • Monday: National Chocolate Milk Day
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from Concentrix, Micron, IHS Markit, and FactSet
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from Cintas and Herman Miller
  • Thursday: Weekly jobless claims. Earnings expected from Paychex, McCormick, CarMax, and Bed Bath & Beyond
  • Friday: August consumer spending

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Amazon, Ford, and Snap

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Latest Stories

$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Gonna have to rename the company... again

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales