Friday Jul.24, 2020

💵 Tesla's 1st full-year profit

_Tesla accepts its 1st Oscar for "Best Year in a Profitable Role"_
_Tesla accepts its 1st Oscar for "Best Year in a Profitable Role"_

Hey Snackers,

Dr. Fauci threw the 1st pitch at a fan-less Nationals Park for baseball's Opening Day (just a bit outside). Maybe the MLB should take a page out of Japan's playbook and fill empty stadiums with creepy yet adorable robot fans. So coordinated.

The Nasdaq took a hit yesterday on big stock drops from Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple — the report that the newly unemployed climbed to 1.4M Americans for the week didn't help.

Earn

Tesla posts a full-year of profit for the 1st time — now it could join the S&P 500 Club

Elon gets his $2B bonus... For the 1st time in its 17-year history, Tesla has posted four straight profitable quarters in a row. The stock surged on the news (surprise), making Tesla the 12th biggest company in the US by market value. Despite corona-conomy slowdowns (like its Fremont factory partially shutting), Tesla hit these numbers:

  • 90K = Tesla's car deliveries from April-June, down just 5% from last year. Meanwhile, car-making peers Ford and GM saw deliveries plunge over 30%.
  • $6B = How much Tesla did in sales. That's actually down 4% from the same quarter last year. And yet...
  • $104M = Tesla's profit, mostly thanks to environmental credit sales. Tesla's clean car production racks up green credits from regulators.
  • $428M = How much Tesla made selling credits to non-electric carmakers who need to offset pollution.

And an invite to the S&P 500 Club... Maybe. The famous S&P 500 index tracks stocks of the 500 most valuable public companies in the US. To be included, companies must post four straight profitable quarters.

  • Tesla just did that, so it's now worthy of the S&P's consideration (but it still needs an invite). Of course, Elon wants the S&P-status bragging right.
  • But more importantly, over $11T is invested in funds that track the S&P 500. If Tesla gets in, fund managers might start buying up the stock, driving the price up even further.

Context is king... Tesla stock has nearly 4X'd in value since peak pandemic in mid-March. Now it could become the largest company by market value to ever join the S&P. But Tesla has a tiny market share in the global car market, and has lost hundreds of millions since 2018. Toyota delivered 30X more cars than Tesla last year and is consistently profitable... but it's worth less than Tesla. After this streak, investors are expecting Tesla profits going forward. If that doesn't happen, the stock will likely fall.

Bundle

Microsoft has a strong quarter, but now Slack is accusing it of "bully bundling"

When the Slackbot is annoying AF... Microsoft reported 13% sales growth and an insane $11B+ in profit last quarter. But party pooper Slack hit it with regulatory drama on the same day. Slack thinks Microsoft's being anti-competitive, so it filed an antitrust complaint in the EU.

  • The Slack-usation: Microsoft is trying to reduce competition in the work collab market by bundling Teams with its popular Office 365 Suite. Microsoft forces Office users to install Teams (and blocks them from removing it).
  • The issue: Slack's having a hard time getting companies that use Office to pay for Slack too, since Teams is included free of extra charge. Office = every Slack salesperson's nightmare.
  • The solution: Slack wants Microsoft to sell Teams as a standalone product, instead of bundling it with the omnipresent Office Suite. TBD whether the EU will formally investigate.

Cutting some slack... Microsoft has bundled a bunch of productivity apps with Office for the past 30 years. So naturally, it decided to throw in Teams right after launching it in 2016. But Microsoft isn't the only "bundling bully" in town:

  • Google bundles almost all its work collab tools into GSuite. It started offering its Meet video tool for free this year — Zoom could complain.
  • Amazon bundles Prime Video with your Prime subscription — Netflix could complain. It also throws in Prime Music — Spotify could complain.
  • Apple pre-downloads its Music app on your iPhone — Spotify did complain.

The disadvantage of being a “One-and-Only” company... "One & Only" companies like Slack and Netflix are successful for doing one thing really well. Buuut — they run the risk of getting overtaken by Big Tech companies with hundreds of products (that can afford to give away tools for free). Sometimes those freebies are the profit puppies of entire other companies. That could potentially crush them.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Trending: Twitter's daily users grew 12% to 186M, but sales fell 19% for the quarter on corona-depressed ad spending.
  • Cut: AT&T's profit plunged on extreme cord-cutting, overshadowing the launch of its HBO Max streaming service.
  • Popcorn: AMC pushes US theater reopenings to mid-August as studios delay releases of blockbusters like Tenet, Mulan, and Star Wars.
  • Guac: Chipotle's digital sales 3X'd for the quarter — and it's introducing its own organic drinks.
  • Chipper: Intel posted strong earnings as WFH boosted computing demand — but shares tumbled on word its latest chip models are being delayed another 6 months.

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Friday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Microsoft, Spotify, Apple, Amazon, and Chipotle

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.