Hey Snackers,
We'll cut right to it. That was rough.
Stocks suffered their worst day of the year as the US/China trade war just erupted on a whole new front: the currency battlefield. More below.
Not quiet on the Eastern front... Governments worldwide let the free market determine how much a dollar, peso, real, or pound is worth through supply and demand. Europe buying some fancy American corn? They'll have to sell euros and buy dollars first. That's why those airport currency exchange boards are constantly changing. But China's government does the opposite — it dictates how much yuan each $ is worth. Then this happened Monday:
Currency manipulation = Tariff kryptonite... China just opened up a whole new front in the trade war because this move neutralizes US tariffs. It's an intense escalation, but it's classic trade war tit-for-tat-for-tit-for-tat. Here's why it went down:
Nobody really wins in a trade war... At first, US tariffs hurt China by making it more expensive to manufacture across the Great Wall, encouraging US companies (like Apple) to make stuff elsewhere. Now, China's currency manipulation hurts American companies because their Chinese competition is suddenly cheaper for customers to buy. Trade wars are races to the bottom (welcome to the new front).
ShackBurgers are studying abroad... Shake Shack shares (say it five times fast) were already up 60% this year. They just rose higher as the chain spreads its caloric gospel worldwide — it's raising revenue expectations in Shanghai and Hong Kong, just opened in Mexico, and has new shops ready for the Philippines and Singapore. But we couldn't ignore the other earnings report highlight.
Shake Shack always hated delivery... That policy has led to brutal date-destroying lines (the Madison Square Park original literally has a live cam). For years, Shake Shack insisted your 'Shroom Burger and fries be eaten on-site. Here's what the CEO even said last year:
We know, we know... We just chatted with you yesterday about the pinnacle of the food delivery wars (food delivery startups consolidating). But this Shake Shack update was the perfect example of another phase: exclusivity. Taco Bell's now with GrubHub. McDonald's committed to Uber Eats and DoorDash. The Shack tested delivery with Postmates, but ultimately landed with GrubHub. Exclusivity is the other key delivery battle you can't ignore.
Meat sweats... Planet Earth's 2nd biggest "processor of chicken, pork, and beef" (not a fun term here) enjoyed a healthy quarter — Tyson's sales rose 8% and profits surged 25%, so the stock jumped 5%. One issue: Tyson was also accused of a giant meat price conspiracy that may have affected your summer BBQ game.
1 serving of subpoena from the Justice Department... Apparently some of Tyson's biggest clients have had some concerns about chicken prices — they rose 11% from 2012 to 2018. Walmart makes up 17% of Tyson's revenues and bolognese legend Olive Garden is another big buyer — but they (and others) got skeptical.
Cartels are hard... That's when companies get together, wink a few times, and make moves that keep prices artificially high. It's anti-competitive, anti-consumer, and simply illegal. But it's also challenging to pull off, since it requires the backdoor coordination of a few major players. That's why the most famous cartel isn't even in the US — it's OPEC, the international organization of 14 oil countries that control oil supplies so they can control oil prices.
Earnings from Match, Planet Fitness, HubSpot, and Wynn Resorts
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