Thursday Jun.30, 2022

🚗 Ford follows Tesla

“This truck was made for you” (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
“This truck was made for you” (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

It’s so wrong it just might be right: Taco Bell is testing a new tostada — on a huge Cheez-It. The Doritos taco shell is feeling jelly…

Stocks barely budged yesterday after news that the US economy shrank 1.6% in the first quarter. Recession worries were already high, and that headline wasn’t inspiring. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $20K again as the crypto selloff continued.

D2D

As carmakers like Ford shift to selling directly to drivers, dealerships may lose the steering wheel

“What can I do to get you in this F-150?”… Ship it to me. Car dealers fear their biz model may disappear as auto giants like Ford sell more cars directly to buyers — and cut out the dealerships who make money as go-betweens. This week Ford CEO Jim Farley met with 300 dealers to cool their concerns.

  • Ford wants to sell 100% online: what Farley told investors this month. The goal: save $$. Farley said Tesla’s direct sales model (think: Tesla stores) saves corporate $2K/car.
  • Bye, “sell, sell, sell”... hi, “service, service, service.” Farley says dealers will still play an important role in the car game — but more as service providers, less as salespeople.

Separation of car and dealer… the auto industry’s equivalent of separation of church and state. For decades, “franchise laws” have forced automakers to sell cars through third-party dealers for antitrust reasons. But since 2013, Tesla has gotten several states to pass special laws that allow direct EV sales, sidestepping intermediaries.

  • Mimicking Tesla’s model: EV startups Rivian, Lucid, and Polestar also sell cars directly online and in company showrooms, ditching the dealerships.
  • Joining the EV-olution: Ford, GM, VW, and Jeep parent Stellantis have all started selling EVs directly to consumers online.

It takes time to ditch old models… and dealers may not go down quietly. By 2030, auto execs expect that half of cars sold in the US will be EVs — and they’re betting direct sales will be an important channel. But unlike Tesla, legacy automakers like Ford and GM have to manage disgruntled dealers as they transition to direct sales. Pricey lawsuits could pile up, especially if big retailers like AutoNation and Penske, which own thousands of dealerships, get involved.

Catsup

Heinz is pulling its famous condiments from the UK's largest grocery chain as price wars escalate overseas

Ketchup in aisle three… or not. Yesterday, Kraft Heinz said it would temporarily stop supplying Tesco — the UK’s largest grocery chain — with its signature Heinz pantry products (think: ketchup, baked beans). There’s beef: Heinz wants to hike its prices to cover rising costs, but Tesco wants to keep prices attractive for its customers. Long story short: they couldn’t agree.

  • Price-sensitive: In 2016, Tesco briefly removed some Unilever products from its website after the Dove parent tried to hike some of its prices by 10%.
  • Tooth-sensitive: In February, Tesco blamed “short supply” for why Colgate’s toothpaste products weren’t in stock. But analysts say it was over pricing disagreements.

Don’t spill the tea… It costs a small fortune. Across Europe, consumer prices are hitting records as households struggle to afford everything from energy bills to cereal. Last month, nearly half of adults in the UK cut back on supermarket shopping, and it’s starting to happen in the US too. But grocery chains across the pond are taking different approaches:

  • In the US, where food spending has remained relatively stable, grocery chains aren’t doing much to keep prices in check. Instead, we’re seeing smaller Doritos and Fruity Pebbles packages as food giants #shrinkflate to avoid higher price tags — or use creative ways to sell the same products at a premium.
  • In Europe: Grocery chains like France’s Leclerc are taking on extra costs to “price shield” hundreds of popular products (think: pizza, pasta) so that customers keep spending.

Inflation has “checks and balances”… Price hikes allow food companies like Heinz to offset rising costs while keeping staples on the shelves. But by not accepting higher prices, grocery stores can keep shoppers spending and prevent them from turning to rivals. These checks and balances could help lower inflation — but a lot more checking will be required.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Ticked: A lone FCC commissioner asked Apple and Google to pull TikTok from their app stores over privacy concerns. But the FCC doesn't regulate app stores (awk), so it may be more bark than bite.
  • Crunched: General Mills stock popped 6% after the cereal legend beat earnings expectations. 'Flation-weary consumers weren't celebrating, though, since the lucky charm behind higher sales was higher prices.
  • Swiped: Snap unveiled a $4/month subscription plan, offering perks for Snap-fluencer fans. Diversification's the name of the game, but the fresh $$ likely won't make up for ghosted ad revenue.
  • Sad: Tech companies are no longer the only ones cutting back in a slowing economy: pharma behemoth Novartis plans to cut 8K jobs to save $1B, while Tesla’s layoffs reportedly continue.
  • Chilly: Crypto exchange CoinFlex accused bitcoin evangelist Roger Ver (aka "Bitcoin Jesus") of failing to pay $47M of stablecoin debt. CoinFlex recently paused customer withdrawals as crypto winter's chill hit.

Thursday

  • Jobless claims
  • Earnings expected from Micron Technology, Constellation Brands, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Acuity Brands, and Simply Good Foods

Authors of this Snacks own: bitcoin and shares of Apple, Tesla, Google, Snap, GM, and Ford

ID: 2268081

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
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World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
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Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.