Free the nipple... Lactose legend Chobani already dominated yogurt: 19% of all yogurt sales in the US and 43% of all Greek yogurt sales are Chobani's. But the still-private company just announced its 1st non-milk lineup, an oat-based family of oat milk, oat yogurt, and Greek yogurt with oatmeal. Here's the bold move: They're all labeled only "Oat." No "milk." No "yogurt." Mic drop.
Cleanup in the dairy aisle... Chobani's yogurt sales are still growing 8% per year even as overall US yogurt sales are slowing. And America's biggest milk processor, Dean Foods, filed for bankruptcy last week. Alt-milks are having a moment — but oat milk's the one going viral:
- Soy's out: The seasoned elder plant-based beverage isn't trendy enough.
- Almond's too thirsty: It requires 8X as much water to grow the nuts and produce the milk as oat milk does.
- Quinoa, flax, and hemp: Still not mainstream.
- Oat milk is now top-shelf: Sales have surged 636% in the last year (led by the Oatly brand).
- And it gets dual-generational love: Boomers now reach for plant-based milks (rising lactose intolerance with age) along with Millennials (because it's just, you know, different).
How do you know if it's a trend or a fad?... Your Snacks team noticed 2 industries that often face fad challenges: Fashion and food. We can't tell you if oat milk's a sustainable trend or a fad that ends before your next grocery run. But we can give you this framework — if you're planning to invest, consider the trend vs. fad phenomenon:
- We think athleisure is a trend with staying-power, but fast fashion is/was a fad that's out.
- Non-processed foods are a trend, juice cleanses are/were a fad.
- Plant-based beverages like oat milk can spill either way.