How the big July jobs report affects the 2nd big coronavirus stimulus package

Fire up the grill... The July jobs report came in hot on Friday. The US eagerly awaited to find out if economic recovery continued or slowed in the face of rising COVID cases. Before we dig in, let's take a walk down memory lane:

• April 2019: The only masks we've ever worn are charcoal face masks, and the unemployment rate is 3.6%.
• April 2020: Lockdowns hit. The US economy loses a record 20.5M jobs, and unemployment hits 14.7% (a post-WWII high).
• May: The US shockingly adds 2.5M jobs and unemployment dips to 13.3%. Customized face masks are in (and finally, in ample supply).
• June: The US adds back 4.8M jobs as lockdowns ease and businesses reopen. Unemployment falls to 11.1%. Then, COVID cases surge again (and some businesses re-close).
• The big July report: US employers added 1.8M jobs and unemployment fell for the 3rd month straight to 10.2%. The economy chugged a celebratory (light) beer.

Which pill, Neo?... Despite positive momentum, the US still hasn't brought back even half of the ~22M jobs lost since March. The extra $600/week unemployment benefit, which has been propping up consumer spending, just ran out. So far, Congress has failed to agree on details of the 2nd Stimulus Package. On Friday, President Trump signed executive orders in an effort to force action:

• #1: Enhance unemployment benefits with an extra $300/week federal booster.
• #2: Suspend payroll taxes for anyone earning $100K/year or less.
• #3: Defer federal student loan payments and temporarily forgive interest.