Wednesday Jul.14, 2021

💰 Inflation intensifies (feat. succulents)

_Check the succulent receipts [staticnak1983/E+ via GettyImages]_
_Check the succulent receipts [staticnak1983/E+ via GettyImages]_

Hey Snackers,

This could have been us, but you played it: an unopened Super Mario 64 game from 1996 just sold for $1.6M. BRB, checking the attic.

Stocks fell yesterday on the latest inflation report. Consumer prices jumped more than expected. About that...

Flated

Inflation on the rise: higher prices are weighing on wallets — but making some bigger

Bringing home the bacon... correction: the 8% more expensive bacon. Consumer prices jumped 5.4% in June from last year, continuing to accelerate at the fastest pace since 2008. As the US economy gets more #flated, the BLS' monthly Consumer Price Index has been getting attention. The CPI measures prices of 80K common items — sounds like a snooze fest, reads like a thriller. A few gems from prices compared to a year ago:

  • Women’s dresses were 16% pricier. Men's pants and shorts: +11%
  • Indoor plants and flowers were up a succulent 5%
  • Hotel prices jumped 17%. Car and truck rentals: +88%
  • Candy and gum: +3%. Liquor at restaurants: a hard +5%
  • Pet services: +5%. Your dog walker isn't complaining.

Get meta with it... Many economists believe that inflation fears are, in themselves, inflated. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expects this inflation could be a one-time price increase as the economy rebounds (#tempflation). Supply chain and labor shortages have been driving up prices of raw materials and goods. A few examples:

  • Cars: The global chip shortage caused a spike in used car and truck prices (+45%), which are responsible for a whopping one-third of the overall CPI increase.
  • Flights: Airlines are dealing with a shortage of pilots and workers while demand is rebounding, leading to pricier flights (+25%).

There are two sides to inflation... The side that pays extra, and the side who gets paid extra. Lower-income consumers are more sensitive to rising prices — a spike in the price of meat, milk, or clothing can make a big difference. But some are seeing an upside too: rising wages. From Uber to McDonald's, companies are raising wages and incentives to fill the labor shortage — which, in turn, can contribute to rising prices. Another inflationary upside: soaring home and car prices — for those who own them. Homeowners got $2T richer during the first three months of this year as values spiked.

BBQ

The BBQ IPO: Weber files to take its famous grills public, but it's more about brand

Grills just want to have funds... Grill-maker Weber is taking its charbroiled stock public, and could seek a $6B valuation in an IPO. Weber's 70-year grilling history began with George Stephen Snr, the man who invented modern grills — and added a lid (key). By the time the 60s rolled around, if you didn't have a Weber grill at your backyard party, you didn't have a backyard party. Now, Weber is sounding less Happy Days, more Silicon Valley:

  • 44: The number of times Weber used the word "disrupt" in its IPO filing.
  • 12: Mentions of "installed base" — 30M grills in the US, and 50M globally.
  • iGrill3: Weber's app-connected grill dongle tells you when the patty is crispy.

And a little bit of chicken grilled... BBQ'ing may be the epitome of American summer, but it's also a hallmark of pandemic socializing. The "outdoor revolution" has benefited everyone from RV companies like Winnebago and Thor, to outdoor gear companies like Yeti and Canada Goose. Now, it's helping Weber and BBQ rivals like Traeger, which also filed to go public last week.

  • $1B in revenue: For the six months ended in March, Weber's sales were up 62% compared to the same period last year.
  • 24% market share: One in four grills on Earth are Weber's, and it holds the top spot for American brands.

Brand can be more important than product... Weber isn’t selling grills – it’s selling its brand name. For Weber, brand recognition is more important than grill innovation (even bluetooth dongles). Weber's biggest strength is that 87% of Americans are aware of its brand — but that's also its #1 risk : “Our business depends on maintaining and strengthening our brand.” That's why it's jacking up marketing spend and hosting events like grill classes and patio parties.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Surge: US Covid cases have doubled in recent weeks as the Delta variant continues to spread and Americans socialize more freely.
  • Banked: Chase's profit more than doubled last quarter, and Goldman's earnings blew past estimates.
  • Extra: Google was fined $600M in France for allegedly violating orders to negotiate paid deals with news publishers.
  • McPerks: McDonald’s franchisees are offering emergency child care and other benefits to bring workers back to the drive-thru.
  • Vroomy: GM is betting on the return to office with a new, $71M campus in Southern California (ETA: 2022).
  • Snacky: Pepsi's sales soared last quarter as restaurants, bars, and stadiums re-stocked its snacks. Including: Cheetos, Doritos, and Lay's.

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from Citi, Bank of America, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, and Delta

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Google

ID: 1720801

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Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

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With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
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Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.