Wednesday Dec.21, 2022

🍿 Netflix's ad flop

*Click* (Chesnot/Getty Images)
*Click* (Chesnot/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

The bots are coming… to save you $$. DoNotPay (think: a "robot lawyer" app) launched an AI-chatbot feature that could help users negotiate lower bills and cancel subscriptions — no annoying hold music required.

Stocks ticked up slightly yesterday to break a four-day losing streak. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan surprised investors by saying it would gently ease away from its super-relaxed monetary policy.

Pause

Netflix's ad-supported plan arrived with a thud as streamers battle inflation and subscription fatigue

Skipping the intro… and the ads along with it. Netflix's new advertising-supported tier, launched early last month, accounted for only 9% of November sign-ups, according to estimates. The $7-a-month plan represents the Flix's bid to diversify revenue and pull in more subscribers with a less expensive offering. It came toward the end of a roller-coaster year for the streamer, which included subscriber losses and layoffs. Now, some early results are in:

  • Press save: 43% of new ad-tier subscribers downgraded from an existing Netflix plan.
  • Cord and cost cutting: The other 57% of sign-ups were a combo of brand-new subscribers and people rejoining after previously canceling subs.

Binge-watching… your fave 30-second commercials. Netflix isn't the only streamer to offer an ad-supported tier, but it is arriving late to the party. As of last month, more than 20% of rival HBO Max's subscribers were estimated to be on its ad plan (which launched mid last year). That # is 57% for Hulu subscribers, and 90% for Peacock. Still, Netflix has lots of room to grow: it boasts 223M subscribers (as of September) vs. HBO Max owner Warner Bros. Discovery's 95M — both of which dwarf Peacock's 18M.

Ads are a vital tool in streamers' arsenals… if they can figure out how to wield them. Companies like Netflix are battling pervasive subscription fatigue and inflation headwinds (picture: higher prices squeezing customers' entertainment budgets). Ad-supported tiers represent a way both to woo on-the-fence viewers and to retain those looking for the exits. But as Netflix's early #s suggest, they can cut both ways: cheaper options might cannibalize existing premium customers. Meanwhile, the Flix said it's "very early days" for its ad-supported plan, suggesting the ad-based streaming surge is only just beginning.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Charge: The CFPB ordered Wells Fargo to pay $3.7B because of banking practices that harmed 16M+ customer accounts over 10+ years. At issue: wrongful overdraft fees and illegally seized homes and cars.
  • Deliver: USPS is buying 66K electric vehicles to build one of the largest EV fleets in the nation. The postal service is expected to spend $9B+ to hit its EV goal, with $3B coming from the Inflation Reduction Act.
  • Stick: Post-it maker 3M said it will stop using controversial PFAS (aka “forever chemicals”) by 2025. FYI: PFAS are in everything from cellphones to cookware, and have been linked to cancer and heart problems.
  • Follow: Twitter rival Mastodon has gained more than 2M users since October — bringing its total to 2.5M. Meanwhile, Elon Musk is said to be hunting for someone to replace him as Twitter's CEO.
  • Bite: General Mills beat sales expectations in its latest reported quarter, as shoppers splurged on name-brand cereal. But the stock fell more than 4% as investors looked at flat sales growth for its pet-food line.

Wednesday

  • Earnings expected from Carnival Corp. and Micron Technology

ID: 2649684

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Latest Stories

$70B

Alphabet shares are soaring in the after-market session, with a initial jump of more than 10% implying a gain of upwards of about $200B in market value when the stock opens tomorrow morning.

Google’s parent company crushed earnings expectations, initiated a cash dividend for the first time, and authorized a fresh $70B in share repurchases for good measure. The market likes it very much.

Business

No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/24/24

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business
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Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales