Friday Dec.03, 2021

⚾ MLB shuts down

Batter out [peepo/E+ via Getty Images]
Batter out [peepo/E+ via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

Job interviews are sooo 2019: As the Great Resignation of 2021 continues, employers are holding “stay interviews” to see how they can get employees to stick around. We’ll see whether that had any effect on the November jobs report (FYI: drops this morning).

Stocks fell on Friday and ended the week lower after the spread of Omicron caused a period of market swings. Travel and tech stocks in particular dragged down the major averages.

Taco

Grab goes public in the largest SPAC merger ever as super apps take over Asia

Grab a taxi... or a taco. Singapore-based Grab started as a ride-hailing platform, but it’s now one of Asia's largest super apps. Think: Uber, DoorDash, Venmo, Expedia, Netflix, and Amazon... all in one app. The decade-old company has 187M users in eight countries — nearly double Uber's users. Yesterday, the super app became a super SPAC.

  • Grab went public on the Nasdaq through a SPAC merger that valued it at nearly $40B — the largest SPAC deal on record. But shares closed down 21% on day one.
  • The #s: Grab's loss grew to nearly $1B last quarter and sales fell 9% as Covid surges in Southeast Asia hit its ride-hail biz.

Can't color-coordinate your home screen... when you have just one app. Grab users can manage their entire lives in-app: from ordering groceries to booking resort vacays, to applying for loans and health insurance, and even streaming rom-coms.

  • "Everything apps" like Grab are super popular in Asia, with Chinese powerhouses like WeChat, Alipay, and Alibaba touting billions of users. That’s partly because slower broadband connections discourage people from clogging their phone with multiple apps.
  • American companies have been dipping into super-app territory. Think: Uber doing food delivery and Facebook integrating payments and shopping. But they’re way less super.

Super apps aren’t just staying abroad.... American companies have been dipping into super-app territory. Think: Uber doing “delivery everything” and Facebook integrating payments, gaming, and shopping. All-in-one platforms are super convenient for users, but that comes at a cost: bigger privacy and regulatory concerns. As antitrust scrutiny heats up, becoming more super could get harder for US tech titans.

Swing

The MLB is shutting down over a labor dispute — and it’s not just a pro-sports trend

Three strikes… and you’re (locked) out. Major League Baseball owners locked out players yesterday after failing to reach a deal with the players’ union — its first shutdown in 27 years. When workers strike, they refuse to work; when employers lock out, they refuse to let employees work. Now all 30 teams are shut down, and no trades are allowed until a deal is reached.

  • Players want a higher salary minimum (it’s currently $571K) and more trade flexibility. Average MLB salaries fell last year, while MLB franchise values jumped.
  • Owners say players’ demands are too high. MLB teams spent $2B on free agents this year, including a record deal for one pitcher that pays $43M per season.
  • It’s the offseason, so games haven’t been cancelled — yet. But the dispute’s expected to last weeks and could cut into the season.

Not the first labor curveball... MLB has had nine labor stoppages, including four lockouts. They haven’t usually interfered with regular-season games, but the 1994 strike resulted in the cancelation of 900 games — including the World Series. And MLB attendance didn’t rebound for more than a decade.

  • Higher stakes: Today, the average MLB team is worth $1.9B — 10X more than during the 1994 strike — so an in-season lockdown would be way costlier.

Labor is gaining power… and not just in sports. Pro athletes have leverage to negotiate with owners thanks to powerful players’ unions. And because of labor shortages and mass quittings, workers across the economy have gained bargaining power this year, too. That’s led to rising wages and better benefits — and the highest level of support for unions since 1965. Work stoppages are becoming common in other industries, from Kellogg’s and John Deere factories to BuzzFeed’s newsroom (just yesterday).

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Restrict: Biden announced plans to tighten testing and mask requirements for travelers entering the US in an effort to combat Omicron.
  • Disarm: The FTC sued to block Nvidia’s $40B purchase of supplier Arm, saying the deal would give the chip behemoth too much control over competitors’ chips.
  • Over: Capital One became the largest US bank to ditch overdraft fees, which often hurt vulnerable consumers but brought in $14B in revenue for the banking industry last year.
  • Feast: Kroger shares popped 11% yesterday after the grocery chain said it expected larger holiday meals at home to continue boosting grocery sales.
  • Ice: Snowflake shares soared 15% after the cloud-based data-management startup said quarterly sales more than doubled from last year.
  • Variant: GlaxoSmithKline said its Covid-19 antibody treatment is likely effective against the Omicron variant, while rival Regeneron said its treatment is less effective.

Friday

  • November jobs report
  • Earnings expected from: Big Lots and Dole

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Square, Apple, Netflix, Amazon, and Uber

ID: 1944387

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Latest Stories

Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.

Tech

Meta’s not telling where it got its AI training data

Today Meta unleashed its ChatGPT competitor, Meta AI, across its apps and as a standalone. The company boasts that it is running on its latest, greatest AI model, Llama 3, which was trained on “data of the highest quality”! A dataset seven times larger than Llama2! And includes 4 times more code!

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

Today’s earnings: Who’s making money edition

Here are some some notable numbers out this morning, as earnings season gathers steam. Thursday’s main event will be Netflix after the close of trading. (Keep an eye on its advertising business.) But until then...

7.13%

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is back above 7%, according to weekly numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest level in four months. High borrowing costs are creating havoc for would-be buyers, as affordability lingers at the low levels not seen consistently since the late 1980s.

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Business

Amazon’s spy ops on rivals: shell companies, printed docs, and a fake Japanese streetwear brand

Some companies check out rivals’ websites, stores and public filings to stay abreast of the competition. Amazon made its own fake shell company and brands, transacted hundreds of thousands of dollars per year undercover on competitors’ platforms, and kept its intel operation a secret for nearly a decade even from others at Amazon, according to a fascinating investigation by the Wall Street Journal.

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Crypto
Jack Morse
4/17/24

Worldcoin pivots to the blockchain… with a 'humans only' discount

Worldcoin, the “proof of personhood” crypto project launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, said it plans to launch its own ethereum layer-2 (L2) blockchain dubbed World Chain. The pitch: a blockchain where it’s both easier and cheaper for people to transact than bots.

Worldcoin has made waves for its iris-scanning metallic orb that promises a future where people can mathematically prove they’re real humans and not AI bots.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

Business

Smooth sailing? Not for superyachts

Sales of the luxury boats sank 17% last year. Meanwhile, Super-SUPER yachts (over 650 feet long) took the biggest sales dip, falling around 40%. Part of the problem: a pandemic-era backlog has led to a three- to four-year waitlist for new yacht orders. Meanwhile Russian oligarchs — former MVP customers — are largely out of the boat-buying business due to sanctions.

Dr Martens shares have been stomped

American sales of Docs have dropped