Thursday Feb.18, 2021

🚀 SpaceX feels a connection

_When you forget the Starlink WiFi code_
_When you forget the Starlink WiFi code_

Hey Snackers,

Share-ing is caring: Michael B. Jordan gave his girlfriend Hermès shares for Valentine's Day. But Hermès Birkin bags are apparently an investment, too.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq index dipped yesterday, dragged down by big shots like Apple and Netflix. Meanwhile, Bitcoin soared past $52K.

Elonder

SpaceX reportedly hit a $74B valuation, but we're more interested in its Space WiFi

To infinity, and Elon!... Never gets old. Elon Musk's SpaceX has raised $850M in fresh funding at a ~$74B valuation, according to CNBC's "people familiar with the financing" (#PFWTF). The privately held rocket company was last valued at $46B in August. In May, SpaceX became the first private company to launch humans into orbit.

Starlight, Starlink... SpaceX's rockets get most of the love, but its Starlink satellites are pretty cool, too. Starlink: SpaceX's project to build a constellation of ~12K high-speed internet satellites in low Earth orbit. Elon said that Starlink will eventually spin off into a public company.

  • The status: Starlink has launched 1K+ satellites so far, and is rolling out a public beta in North America and the UK (it already has 10K+ users). It's also accepting $99 preorders.
  • The cost: SpaceX estimated that Starlink will cost ~$10B to build out — or 5X its estimated 2018 rocket launch revenue.
  • The benefit: SpaceX believes Starlink could bring in as much as $30B a year (way more than its existing rocket sales).

Starlink needs the Tesla playbook... to go mainstream. Starlink will reportedly cost $99/month... plus $499 upfront for the "Starlink Kit" (router included). When you compare that to the ~$55 average cost for high-speed internet, it seems way overpriced. But Tesla cars were inaccessible at the beginning, too ($109K for its first model in 2008 — now it's making a $25K model). Tesla's first strategy was entering at the high end of the market with a premium product, and then lowering costs as it scaled production (see: Elon's Master Plan). Starlink is impractical and expensive today, but it could go downmarket tomorrow.

Brr

Millions of Americans are left without power (again): time for an EP industry

Dire straits... Millions of Americans were left without electricity and heat as brutal winter storms continued to wreak havoc across the US. Texas was especially hard-hit, with ~2.7M homes losing power, some for the third straight day. In total, 3.4M US homes were still without electricity yesterday — and some also lost water. Businesses are getting frozen out, too:

  • Walmart closed more than 600 of its ~5K US stores in the South and the Midwest. CVS closed ~775 locations.
  • FedEx and UPS warned of possible nationwide delays, and USPS closed post offices and processing hubs in Texas, Alabama, and Mississippi.
  • GM, Ford, Toyota, Nissan, and others, suspended production at car-making plants from Texas to Indiana.

No one was expecting this... Texas is used to hurricanes and tornadoes, but wasn't prepared for extreme temperatures. Neither was its power grid: Texas’ deregulated energy market doesn't incentivize operators to spend on preparing pipelines for a rare winter storm. Meanwhile, demand for heat-providing electricity and gas has soared, putting even more strain on the grid.

Emergency preparedness should be a full-fledged industry... Extreme weather has left Americans powerless multiple times in recent years. In 2017, there were hurricanes and floods on the Gulf Coast. In 2018 and 2020, there were wildfires on the West Coast. Extreme weather is becoming more frequent, so the emergency preparedness industry should bulk up. Companies like Honda, Generac, and EcoFlow, sell portable generators. And Tesla sells (way pricier) home solar powerwalls for when the grid goes down. But if companies can provide an affordable package with all the disaster staples (including alternate power), they would be doing everyone a favor.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • GameStop: Congress is hosting a hearing today to discuss last month’s market events. There will be testimony from four CEOs (including Robinhood’s), and a Redditor.
  • Emoji: Apple will introduce 217 new emojis in its next iOS update, including an AirPods headphone emoji (of course).
  • Shoppy: Shopify's sales nearly doubled last quarter from 2019, but the stock dropped because it expects slower growth in 2021.
  • Served: New York’s attorney general sued Amazon for inadequately protecting workers from Covid-19 at two of its facilities.
  • Meter: Google Maps will let you pay for public transportation and parking through its app (but you have to use Google Pay).
  • Hope: The World Health Organization reported a 16% decline in global Covid cases from last week.

Thursday

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Google, Amazon, Apple, and Shopify

Disclosure: Robinhood Snacks is owned by Robinhood

ID: 1529712

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Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

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Tech

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

2024-04-22-1-america-importing-less-from-china

The US now buys more goods from Mexico than from China

Chinese imports are down as companies begin to "nearshore" in Mexico

2024-04-22-paramount-global-site

Multiple bidders want to buy Paramount Global’s sprawling media assets

Junk

How much of the world’s plastic is recycled? Only a fraction

Landfills still account for the majority of plastic disposal

Markets

Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.