Monday Dec.20, 2021

🎁 The Snacks Six for 2021

Looking back, looking forward [Yifei Fang/Moment via Getty Images]
Looking back, looking forward [Yifei Fang/Moment via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

2021 flew by, but it also feels like it lasted 10 years. We’re wrapping up with the top six stories and numbers from this roller-coaster year — and looking ahead to what’s brewing in 2022.

The market-tracking S&P 500 index is up 25% so far this year, compared to 16% for 2020. Despite supply headaches, new Covid variants, and planned interest-rate hikes, stocks have jumped on recovery enthusiasm and record corporate profits.

BTW: Our last daily newsletter of the year comes to you on Thursday. We’ll be back in your inboxes with a futuristic Snack on January 3!

Stories

The Snacks Six: stories that defined 2021

  1. The stimulus effect… Since the third stimmy landed in March (another $1.9T), the US economy has rebounded hard. Spending boomed thanks to extra $$$ for consumers, stocks rallied to new highs, and unemployment has fallen to near pre-pandemic levels. But as the economy revved up, supply issues abounded (#EverythingShortage) and prices soared. 2021 was all about stimulating spending; 2022 could be about cooling. The Fed plans to hike interest rates three times in the new year to tamp down inflation, which hit a 39-year high last month. Meanwhile, JP Morgan Chase believes ’22 will bring a full global recovery.

  2. Meme mania… Investing gained unprecedented cultural relevance this year as Americans sat at home with extra cash and more ways than ever to participate in markets. In January, social-driven buying campaigns helped lead to rising prices of “meme stocks” like GameStop, AMC, and Nokia — and later meme-related cryptos like Dogecoin, Shiba, and short-lived Squid coin, which turned out to be a scam. But meme mania is just one chapter in the rise of the retail investor: Retail investors accounted for an estimated 23% of all US equity trading this year, up double from 2019.

  3. Vaccination nation… December 2020: The US Covid vaccine rollout begins, starting with essential workers and high-risk groups. Since then, vax access has majorly expanded (even to kids). The first half of the rollout was all about “carrots” — think: free Krispy Kreme incentives. The second was “sticks”: Corporations like CVS, McDonald’s, and Walmart mandated shots for some employees, while others required unvaccinated employees to pay more for health insurance. In November, President Biden announced vax mandates for all employers with 100 or more workers. Now 60% of Americans are fully vaxxed, and nearly a third have gotten a booster. But global Covid deaths this year surpassed 2020's total toll by June, and now Omicron is spreading fast.

  4. Race to the metaverse… “That’s so meta” took on new meaning. In October, Facebook became “Meta” to double down on its vision for an internet you can be inside of — from VR gaming worlds to virtual offices and meta-malls. Tech titans like Microsoft, Roblox, and Nvidia are also racing to claim their stake in the ’Verse, which could be the future of work, entertainment, and commerce. Mark Zuckerberg hopes that by 2030 his metaverse will reach 1B people. But it faces many hurdles to becoming (meta) reality.

  5. Trillion-dollar milestones… Tech giants got even giant-er as pandemic scrolly-tappy habits stuck. Apple is close to becoming earth’s first $3T company, only 16 months after hitting $2T. Microsoft passed $2T in June as the cloud boom continued, and in November Google briefly surpassed the double-trillion mark (thanks, YouTube bingeing). Even Tesla momentarily joined the four-comma club. The uberwealthy also had a banner year: Billionaires grew $1.6T richer. In 2022, interest-rate hikes plus Biden-led tax increases could cut into gains for tech powerhouses and the deep-pocketed.

  6. Labor gains leverage... from strikes to $15 minimum wages. Power shifted to workers as companies scrambled to hire during the labor shortage. Covid fears, childcare needs, and extra unemployment benefits kept many home, while the pandemic changed priorities. Job openings soared as workers looked for better options. Corporate behemoths like Target and Walmart engaged in a battle of benefits, hiking wages and dangling perks such as free college tuition. As workers demanded better conditions, union popularity hit a 56-year high (even Starbs has one now). With a record 11M job openings on one side and a low 4.2% unemployment rate on the other, emboldened workers have negotiated 4.8% higher wages this year, on average.

Numbers

Six big numbers of 2021…

  • 51 = # of commercial space launches this year, including Virgin Galactic, SpaceX, and Blue Origin space-tourism missions (feat. “Star Trek” icon William Shatner and former footballer Michael Strahan).

  • 3,091 = # of times the word “journey” was mentioned on earnings calls, as corporate execs grappled with a mixed bag of financial recovery + major global issues.

  • $69M = the record-smashing price that an NFT sold for at a Christie’s auction, as the value of digital assets soars. You could buy many metaverse yachts with that money.

  • +58% = rise in US gas prices from last year. The pump anxiety is real, and could make it way pricier to heat and electrify homes this winter.

  • 313M+ = total “Squid Game” views, including 142M+ views of the actual Netflix series and 171M views of Mr. Beast’s YouTube re-creation.

  • $2.8B = Alibaba’s historic antitrust fine. As Chinese regulators crack down on tech titans, the value of US-listed Chinese companies has plunged.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • See: NYT’s 2021 year in pictures.
  • Do: A New Year’s resolution for all Americans.
  • Read: The best books of ’21, according to business leaders.

This Week

Coming up this year…

  • Jan. 1: The Biden admin enters its second year with the Build Back Better plan and voting-rights bill at the top of the agenda.
  • Jan. 17-21: World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland
  • Jan. 31: Grammys
  • Feb. 4-20: Beijing hosts Winter Olympics
  • Feb. 13: 56th Super Bowl kicks off in California
  • March 27: 94th Academy Awards ceremony
  • April 18: Tax Day
  • Oct. 1: SpaceX begins five-year collab with US Air Force
  • Nov. 7-18: COP27 UN climate summit in Egypt
  • Nov. 8: US midterm elections
  • Nov. 21-Dec. 17: Qatar hosts World Cup

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Google, Walmart, CVS, Apple, Netflix, Starbucks, Amazon, Microsoft, and Tesla

ID: 1963874

Get Your News

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Go Deeper with Market Depth

Nasdaq TotalView powers the need-to-know data serious investors rely on.

Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

Your inbox is ready

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.