Tuesday Apr.19, 2022

💊 Twitter’s “poison pill”

Case of Elon-itis? Take one and call us in the morning (Peter Dazeley/Getty Images)
Case of Elon-itis? Take one and call us in the morning (Peter Dazeley/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

The comeback of the season: QR codes. This year the University of Central Florida’s football team will replace players’ numbers with QR codes to encourage digital engagement.

Stocks fell slightly as investors prepped for one of the busiest weeks of the earnings season. Meanwhile, Russia has begun its long-feared new offensive in eastern Ukraine.

Swallow

Twitter pops a “poison pill” to block Elon’s buyout. One possible side effect: selling to someone else.

Bitter medicine… Twitter’s taking drastic measures to get rid of its Elon headache — a sign it really doesn’t want to be under the Technoking’s tweet-happy thumb. Quick recap: two weeks ago Elon Musk revealed a 9.2% stake in Twitter. He then made a $43B offer to buy the company (after declining a seat on its board). Twitter responded by creating a “poison pill” — a tried-and-true way for companies to avoid a hostile takeover.

  • How it works: If Elon tries to buy 15% of Twitter’s shares, the pill kicks in and lets every shareholder except Elon buy shares at half price — making a buyout way costlier for him (and diluting Twitter’s stock in the process). Twitter’s board voted unanimously to adopt the plan for one year.

The opposite of shareholder activism… is board react-ivism. Poison pills were invented in the 1980s to stop “corporate raiders” from taking over public companies. To date, no buyer has ever swallowed a poison pill and forced a takeover at an inflated price (they usually back down).

  • Taking their pills: Netflix used a poison pill to stop activist investor Carl Icahn from taking over in 2012, and Papa John’s adopted one to prevent disgraced founder John Schnatter — Papa John himself — from regaining control in 2018.

But poison pills aren’t 100% effective… and if anyone’s willing to swallow one, it might be Elon. With enough money and influence, it’s possible to avoid a poison pill. Theoretically, Elon could persuade 51% of shareholders to replace Twitter’s board — and then buy Twitter anyway, thereby circumventing the pill. But that would take a while, and Twitter’s board could choose another buyer in the meantime. Already, private-equity giants Thoma Bravo and Apollo are reportedly considering bids.

Tunes

SiriusXM could be the next company hit hard by the chip shortage, but “sticky” subscribers are helping cushion the blow

The sound of Pop2K... a road-trip playlist must. SiriusXM, the home of Howard Stern and all-day Bruce Springsteen radio, was once a struggling player in a dying industry. It has since turned its fortunes around by focusing on cars… and drivers who’d rather flip on their fave station than fiddle with an aux cord. But Sirius shares fell nearly 3% yesterday after an analyst said the car industry’s ongoing chip shortage could turn into a profit prob.

  • Last quarter Sirius’ free-trial subscribers fell 19% from 2020, partly because of declining car sales. FYI: Sirius relies on converting its trial members into full-time subscribers to make $$.

Capitalizing on the commute... Sirius’ market cap is nearly the same as Spotify’s (about $26B), thanks to its 32M+ monthly subscribers. Over the years, automakers from GM to BMW have teamed up with Sirius to integrate its satellite-radio software into their newest models. Now over 80% of new cars sold are Sirius-equipped. But global supply shortages that’ve made car inventory so tight have also put the squeeze on Sirius to diversify:

  • Sirius is focused on creating content for on and off the dashboard, like hosting exclusive virtual concerts and building up its slate of podcasters.

Low churn is the key to profits… Till now, Sirius has largely dodged its car troubles by providing a wide variety of curated programming for road warriors, whether they want Top 40, podcasts, or Howard. And they’re still tuning in: Sirius’ churn rate (aka the # of subscribers who opt-out each year) is less than 2%. That’s better than traditional streamers like Disney+, Spotify, and even Netflix. Yet its long-term success is still tied to the health of the car market.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Optional: The Big 4 US airlines have dropped mask requirements after a federal judge tossed the mask mandate for planes and public transit. It comes as Covid cases are back on the rise in the US.
  • Lend: Bank of America rounded out a “meh” earnings season for the big banks with a 12% profit drop, which wasn’t as bad as expected. BofA benefited from strong consumer lending, even as dealmaking dried up.
  • Fruit: Workers at Apple’s flagship store in NYC’s Grand Central Terminal are taking the first steps toward unionizing, following successful campaigns at Amazon and Starbucks. Among their demands: a $30/hour wage.
  • Flip: An NFT of Jack Dorsey’s first tweet, which sold for $2.9M last year, is back up for sale — but the top bids are a fraction of the original sale price. It’s a sign that the non-fungible-token craze could be cooling.
  • Abode: Mortgage rates are above 5% for the first time since 2011. Since 9 of 10 US mortgages carry a rate <5%, more homeowners are likely to stay put — which means even less supply for buyers.

Tuesday

  • Earnings expected from: Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, Prologis, Lockheed Martin, IBM, Halliburton, and Hasbro

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Netflix, Apple, Amazon, Disney, GM, Spotify, Starbucks, Sirius XM, and Twitter

ID: 2156755

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

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Business
Rani Molla
4/19/24

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢