Thursday Jan.16, 2020

Phase 1 complete (but Trade War still on)

_It's a (half) deal_
_It's a (half) deal_

Hey Snackers,

Sparky can finally jam out to his go-to pup stars — Spotify launched personalized playlists for your dog.

The Dow popped 91 points Wednesday as the US and China inked "Phase One" of the trade deal (details below)...

Sign

The US and China (finally) sign a partial trade agreement — but Trade War's still on

Phase 1... Complete. After 2 years of trade-war-ing that shook up global markets, the US and China signed an agreement that de-escalates the situation. It looks like China's making (almost) all the policy changes and concessions:

  • USA gets more exports: China agreed to increase the amount of American goods it buys by $200B total over 2 years (ship off the soybeans, grains, manufactured parts).
  • USA gets access: China also agreed to open up its market to American financial companies (Mastercard, Visa, and AmEx got shoutouts), which were previously banned/denied.
  • USA gets vague promises: China infamously forces US companies that want to operate there to first give up their biz secret sauce. China denies it does this (despite evidence) and promises in this deal not to. FYI, China won't change laws to enforce this.
  • China still gets most tariffs: The US is keeping tariffs on 3/4 of what Americans import from China, aka $370B worth of stuff each year. Trump said these "will all come off" if future negotiations lead to agreement part-two (he kept them on as leverage).

Another thing China gets (but not part of the actual agreement)... The US will cancel planned tariffs on Made in China consumer goods that would've made Apple and Nike products 25% more expensive for Americans. Plus, it cut existing tariffs on another $120B of Chinese goods in half. Boom.

The goal of the Trump tariffs... was to get Americans to buy less Made in China goods, hurting China's economy and pressuring it to change. US imports of Chinese goods actually rose in 2018, but are now down 17% from 2017. Meanwhile, PBS estimates the average American household will pay $800 per year in higher costs thanks to tariffs — that's a total $102B annually in costs for Americans (those tariffs haven't gone away).

Play

Build-A-Bear Workshop cashes in on Disney's Baby Yoda

"We now will have 'The Child'"... AKA, Baby Yoda. Your go-to elementary school bday venue, Build-A-Bear is debuting a Baby Yoda stuffed toy to satisfy the unquenchable thirst for Baby Yoda-anything (aka the Yodaconomy). The adorable Star Wars character should be available within the next few months.

"Trending higher than all the presidential candidates combined..." That's what Build-A-Bear's CEO thinks of Baby Yoda. She's not wrong. Because Disney kept Baby Yoda a secret, Hasbro missed a huge opportunity (and millions of $$$) by showing up late to the yoda-bae party. Here's the deal:

  • Hasbro's the exclusive official toymaker of Disney franchises (including Star Wars).
  • But there's a carve-out for stuffed ~~animals~~ Jedi.
  • Since Hasbro won't get yoda toys out until May, Build-a-Bear could be the only Baby Yoda option for a few months.

Timing and partnerships are key... But monetization is endless. When a character is as popular (and memeable) as Baby Yoda comes out, Disney's money-making possibilities hit galactic proportions. Licensing deals with companies like Disney are critical to Build-a-Bear's success — Almost 1/2 its sales are now from toys meant for tweens, teens, and (Star Wars-loving) adults.

Plant

Califia Farms raises $225M to scale plant-based dairy everything

Got Plant?... Califia Farms does, and it wants to take over the nut-based dairy market. The alt-milk maker just got a $225M check in its latest funding round (led by a Qatar's state-owned fund). Califia makes Vanilla Almondmilk Creamer, Unsweetened Oatmilk, and even Nitro Cold Brew Latte (with oat milk, duh).

  • Fruit-full: Founded in 2010, Califia started as a juice company for "imperfect" fruits (a weirdly-shaped carrot is still totally juicable).
  • Plant-full: It's pivoted to dairy subs only, becoming the #3 biggest plant-based milk maker (you might recognize their dress-shaped bottle).
  • Cash-full: The company will use its fresh cash to go deeper into plant-liquid-based options (think creamer, yogurt, and ice cream).

Feel-good mission + aesthetic packaging... But can that beat alt-dairy rivals like hipster Oatly, lactose-legend Chobani, or pea-based Ripple? We know plant-based milks have disrupted the dairy industry (US consumption of cow milk keeps dropping). So Califia is trying to stand out with its brand, but...

Does brand matter?... Customers will often pay more for a premium brand they know/trust/love. And brands matter for plant-based meat: Impossible Whopper and Beyond Breakfast Sandwich. But alt-milk... might just be alt-milk. Starbucks offers almond milk, but doesn't advertise the brand in your latte. Califia's using its fresh cash to build a brand to beat that.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Special Sauce: Shake Shack jumps 7% on a report that its exclusive Grubhub deal could define its 2020 — The Shack in the top of the delivery app is fresh marketing
  • Megamerge: T-Mobile and Sprint gave their final arguments for why they should be allowed to merge — but a bunch of states think the marriage will jack up wireless bills
  • Mario: Universal Studios Japan is opening a Super Nintendo World theme park (you get "Power Up Bands" that track your life in a coin-collecting video game)
  • Missed: Target's stock fell 7% because holiday toy and electronic sales weren't what they expected
  • Bezobills: Jeff Bezos says he wants to invest $1B in Amazon's India biz, but some small-business owners there weren't having it (see: "Bezos Go Back")

Thursday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Beyond Meat and Amazon

ID: 1060355

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The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

$127

The average bitcoin-transaction fee hit an all-time high of $127 on Friday.

The temporary spike came as the halving cut miner rewards and traders forked over huge sums of BTC (skewing the average) to be included in the first post-halving block.

Adding fuel to the fee fire was the launch of Runes, a new protocol that lets developers create memecoins on top of the bitcoin blockchain. The debut was so popular that fees popped as traders fought for limited block space.

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The US now buys more goods from Mexico than from China

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Stock market gains for 2024 cut by more than half

All of the sudden, the stock market seems to be running out of steam.

There’s no big mystery here. War in the Mideast has pushed up oil prices, which will help keep inflation elevated. And annoyingly high price increases in March have already pushed the June Fed rate cuts the market was banking on farther into the uncertain future.

All that’s added up to higher interest rates and lower stock prices.

Tech
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AI needs so much electricity that tech companies are getting into the energy business

To accommodate tech companies’ pivots to artificial intelligence, tech companies are increasingly investing in ways to power AI’s immense electricity needs.

Most recently, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman invested in Exowatt, a company using solar power to feed data centers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

That’s on the heals of OpenAI partner, Microsoft, working on getting approval for nuclear energy to help power its AI operations. Last year Amazon, which is a major investor in AI company Anthropic, said it invested in more than 100 renewable energy projects, making it the “world’s largest corporate purchaser of renewable energy for the fourth year in a row.”

This can all feel like a bit of spin, as these tech companies move the narrative toward their use of green energy rather than questioning whether they truly need to be consuming so much energy in the first place.

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