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Moderna makes big vax news, and logistics companies could benefit

Snacks / Monday, November 16, 2020
_The big checkmate_
_The big checkmate_

When you get a 90% on the test… and your friend immediately mentions they got a 95%. Last week, Pfizer and BioNTech announced that their COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective in final-stage trials (huge). Yesterday, Moderna said its vaccine was more than 94% effective, according to early results (huge-er). Moderna's vax is also easier to store, temperature-wise. But how soon could a vax get approved and start shipping?

  • Moderna plans to request emergency FDA approval by early December. Pfizer could seek emergency use authorization this month.
  • If Moderna gets the greenlight, it could start distributing in December with 20M doses ready to ship by end of year.
  • Potato, not potatoe: Pfizer is a 170-year-old pharma with 300+ drugs on the market. Moderna's a 10-year-old biotech that has never sold a single drug.

But they have one thing in common... Moderna and Pfizer both have mRNA vaccines, which are faster and cheaper to make than traditional vaccines — but have never been approved for human use. Both have said they're planning to sell for profit, while some traditional vax frontrunners like AstraZeneca pledged to initially sell "at cost" (no profit). But Pharma isn’t the only industry that could be poised to profit...

Logistics companies could benefit (big)... Distributing the vaccine will be a massive undertaking, and airlines and shipping companies will likely be key to that. Providing a single dose to 7.8B people will require 8K Boeing 747 cargo planes. Delta and UPS are already gearing up by expanding their cooling facilities for vaccine storage/shipment. Pharma products are one of the most profitable cargo types, so this could be a huge financial opportunity.

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