Tuesday Oct.26, 2021

🔌 Hertz’s $4B Tesla splurge

Looking for Teslas in Terminal 2 [freemixer/E+ via Getty Images]
Looking for Teslas in Terminal 2 [freemixer/E+ via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

We don’t remember this from “Narcos”: A group of hippos formerly owned by Pablo Escobar have become the first nonhuman creatures to be recognized as "legal persons" in the US.

Stocks closed at another record today, after UPS and others delivered strong earnings. UPS made 13% more revenue for every piece it shipped last quarter, though it shipped fewer items. Like FedEx, UPS plans to continue boosting prices next year (moment of silence for your holiday packages).

Tessie

Hertz buys $4B+ worth of Teslas in a major bet on large-scale EV rentals

Going Ludicrous on the weekend… Car-rental giant Hertz is buying 100K Teslas for an estimated $4.2B, the biggest EV purchase ever. Hertz is paying full sticker price. Hertz said Tesla Model 3s would be available for rent early next month. Shares of both companies spiked 10% yesterday, and Tesla’s market cap hit $1T, putting the EV leader in the trillion-dollar club with Apple, Microsoft, Saudi Aramco, Google, and Amazon.

Hertz so good… Renting a Tesla for your weekend getaway requires less commitment than dropping $42K on a Model 3. The Hertz deal will give Tesla more exposure (rentals = test drives). And it could be a game changer for Hertz, which emerged from bankruptcy just four months ago.

  • Rental-flation: Hertz liquidated 30% of its fleet when car prices were high, generating more cash on top of the nearly $6B in bankruptcy investments and $10B in loans.
  • EV-olution: As gas prices rise and sustainability booms, Hertz could set itself apart from competitors with Teslas-for-rent. Hertz plans to attract EV-curious renters with its revamped fleet, which will be 20% electric when its Teslas arrive over the next year.
  • If you’re not first... you may be last. Hertz’s mega-deal will suck up 10% of Tesla’s production capacity, making it hard for rivals Enterprise or Avis to copy its strategy.

Low commitment + low impact = high appeal… Hertz is tapping into two key trends: commitment-phobia and sustainability. 70% of US companies will continue offering remote or flexible work options, and over a third of Gen Z and millennial workers are looking for new jobs. When you don’t know where you’ll be, commitment is daunting. That’s why Volvo, Nissan, Porsche, and Land Rover have launched short-term car subscriptions. Meanwhile, Volkswagen rolled out an EV-specific subscription.

DNA

23andMe is buying Lemonaid for $400M in a bid to lead DNA-based healthcare

12% Greek, 30% Irish, 100% allergic to cats... Also: related to a medieval Spanish king. 23andMe, one of the leading DNA-testing companies, has genotyped nearly 12M customers through its ancestry and health kits. 23andMe went public in June via a SPAC, and shares have fallen 15% since. The bulk of its revenue comes from spit tests, but those kit sales have slowed. Now...

  • 23andMe is buying Lemonaid Health for $400M. The telehealth startup offers “affordable” access to care and delivers meds from its own pharmacies.
  • 23andMe wants to integrate genetic data with primary care. Lemonaid doctors will use 23andMe's reports to help determine which drugs are best suited to patients.

"You have more neanderthal DNA than 78% of customers”... an example insight from 23's subscription service. It launched with the goal of using genetics to lead a personalized healthcare revolution. It’s been trying to connect the dots between DNA testing and healthcare for years. A whopping 80% of its customers allow their genetic info to be used for research.

  • In 2015, 23andMe launched a therapeutics unit to use its saliva samples to develop drugs.
  • In 2018, it sold access to users' DNA to pharma giant GlaxoSmithKline, and sealed a four-year deal to collab on drug development.
  • In 2019, it sold the rights to a psoriasis drug it developed using its trove of genetic data to pharma company Almirall.
  • Last year, it introduced a subscription product called 23andMe+ that gives consumers personalized health info. Think: predispositions for diabetes and celiac and muscle composition.

The future of healthcare could be personalized... But it could take a while. Genetics will likely be central to the future of healthcare: 70% of providers think genetic tests will improve clinical outcomes. Other testing companies like Color and Helix are also positioning genetics as the future. But genetics still hasn't been adopted into primary care, and its value/benefit versus generic care hasn't been fully verified.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Meta: Facebook beat earnings expectations, but missed sales estimates as ad revenue growth slowed. Now it’s investing billions to become a metaverse company.
  • Unpinned: PayPal is backing off a reported $40B+ acquisition offer to Pinterest, after PayPal shares plunged on rumors of a Pin-quisition.
  • LunarPark: Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin plans to create a commercial space station with Boeing. They aim to launch the galactic “business park” before 2030.
  • Clicked: Thrasio, which buys the businesses of popular Amazon sellers, raised $1B to keep scooping up Amazo-trenprenurs.
  • UnFaZed: Gen Z-favorite gaming platform FaZe Clan is merging with a SPAC to go public at a $1B valuation. Pitbull is one of its celeb backers.
  • Fitting: Kim K’s shapewear company, Skims, is partnering with Italian fashion icon Fendi to launch a women’s collection.

Tuesday

  • Earnings expected from: Apple, Google

Authors of this Snacks own: Bitcoin, and shares of Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google

ID: 1892499

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No, Apple hasn’t cut its Vision Pro production estimates in half

Quite a few news outlets are reporting that Apple thinks it’s only going to sell 400,000 to 450,000 Vision Pros in 2024, compared a “market consensus” of 700,000 to 800,000. They’re all citing a note from Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Obviously there’s no question that Apple’s $3,500 face computer will have a limited audience and could be a huge flop, but this also doesn’t seem like accurate news.

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

The issue is that 1) this 400,000 number isn’t new. Back in July of 2023, the Financial Times reported that Apple planned to make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024, reducing its initial projections of 1M units, citing two people close to Apple and, the Chinese contract manufacturer assembling the device. 2) It's unclear who was estimating 700,000-800,000 Vision Pros in the first place, but it appears that it was Ming-Chi Kuo himself?

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Meta exhaustingly tries to merge the metaverse and AI

Gonna have to rename the company... again

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

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Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

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Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative