Friday Jul.10, 2020

👩‍⚕️ Dr. Walgreens will see you now

_Kroger's competitor-crushing secret_
_Kroger's competitor-crushing secret_

Hey Snackers,

“Please scream inside your heart" — the directive from execs at a reopened theme park in Japan. The park asks that you enjoy the Fujiyama roller coaster, but please don't scream (because, COVID). They made a beautiful video flexing their heart-scream abilities (impressive).

Markets dropped Thursday after Florida reported a record number of COVID-related hospitalizations. But the Nasdaq inched up on investors' tech optimism.

Plant

Kroger's alt-meat sales soar on real-meat shelf placement (but is it pulling an Apple?)

Beyond Impossible... We find the Simple Truth. Grocery giant Kroger stuffs its supermarkets with name brand items, but complements Heinz and Pepsi with its own Kroger-branded (private label) products. It owns a plant-based meat brand called Simple Truth, but also sells non-Kroger brands (like Beyond Meat and Impossible). Just in-stock: some tasty alt-meat stats...

  • +75%: How much Kroger's plant-based meat sales jumped last quarter. The number of alt-meat buyers popped 50%.
  • +23%: How much Kroger's plant-based meat sales grew simply by moving the products from the alt-food section to the meat department.

Location, location, location... Retail products want that prime shelf-placement real estate. Nice packaging and quality do little to help a product's sales if it's tucked on the bottom shelf by the Aisle 87 bathroom.

  • Placement matters extra for a non-mainstream product like plant-based meat. By placing it in the meat department, Kroger made it a real consideration for traditional meat shoppers.
  • Meat-eaters are the target: Alt-meat companies like Impossible know they can't grow unless they target meat-eaters. "Flexitarians" that eat both animal meat and plant-based are key to taking plant-based mainstream.

Kroger has the same power that Apple has... To give its products special treatment. Apple owns and controls the App Store — and it's being sued/investigated in Europe for allegedly playing favorites with its own apps in App Store search results (e.g. Apple Music #1, Spotify #5). Kroger owns its markets, but also competes in them with others' brands. It has the power to give its products special shelf placement. With the best shelf space and a lower price point, it's probably eating into Beyond and Impossible's growth.

Medicate

Walgreens drops $1B to open hundreds of doctors offices — healthcare is its Big Bet

Kleenex, Aisle 6... Walgreens lost $1.7B last quarter — for reference: it made a $1B profit during the same quarter last year. Foot traffic fell because of stay-at-home orders and those who came in were buying less-profitable items (like TP instead of beauty products). So to save cash, Walgreens is cutting 4K jobs in the UK and the stock still fell 8%.

Skipping 10 years of med school... Despite the loss, Walgreens will invest a whopping $1B over 3 years to open up 700 doctors' offices. It's invested in primary-care provider VillageMD to bring sleek, zen-themed clinics into your Walgreens locations (half in medically underserved areas). Walgreens is splurging for the "short-term pain, long-term gain" strategy:

  • Sales of prescription drugs account for most of Walgreens' sales, but they've dropped off in the corona-conomy.
  • 60% of Americans live with at least one chronic condition that requires multiple daily medications.
  • By adding easy-access clinics, Walgreens can drive sales for its profit-puppy prescriptions (and sell you toothpaste, while you're at it).

Healthcare is big retailers' Big Bet... for big profits. CVS acquired Aetna insurance in 2018 and is planning 1.5K "HealthHUB" clinics by 2021 (no doctors though). Walmart is doing something similar with its flat-fee primary care clinics (and it just launched a health insurance biz this week). All these retailers already have big physical footprints, and they figure adding healthcare into one-stop-shopping could drive growth.

Lend

Rocket Companies files to IPO on the wings of its mortgage app

How to make mortgages sexy... Thinking, thinking.... Include some space-travel imagery. Rocket Companies (formerly less-sexy Quicken Loans) is the largest mortgage lender in the US. Back in 2010, Cleveland Cavs owner Dan Gilbert chose downtown Detroit for Quicken's HQ. That kinda catalyzed a renaissance for the Motor City because Quicken brought some fast-paced business growth with it. Now:

  • Rocket Cos just filed to go public: The target valuation hasn't been announced, but it's likely in the tens of billions of dollars, according to #PFWTM (people familiar with the matter).
  • Rocket Mortgage, the flagship biz, has doled out over $1 Trillion in home loans. Last quarter, sales more than doubled from a year ago — Now it controls 9% of the mortgage market.

How to make mortgages sexy (part 2)... There's an app for that. The Rocket Mortgage app was so popular, that Quicken decided to rebrand itself to Rocket. Kind of like the TurboTax of mortgages, Rocket's calculators hand-hold your way into seeing what home ownership means for your wallet. You can see how the digital-first focus is working with its target:

  • 75% of Rocket users are 1st-time homebuyers, encouraged by low interest rates right now.
  • But the risk facing Rocket (and the whole mortgage industry) is how home sales could change dramatically in a longer recession.

Local mortgage providers have big competition... Historically, getting a mortgage required meeting a guy/gal at a local bank in town. But in-person transactions have declined with the rise of financial software — and this decline is accelerating quickly in the corona-conomy. Rocket's app-based approach helps it lower costs and scale quickly, which is why it processed 3X as many mortgages monthly as a typical lender.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Ouch: Mobile streamer Quibi reportedly lost 90% of its early users after their free 3-month trials expired.
  • Goofy: Disney will partially reopen Disney World in Orlando on Saturday after a 117-day closure.
  • Bitty: Coinbase could become the 1st major US crypto exchange to go public — it's reportedly starting IPO plans as soon as this year.
  • Remix: TikTok considers changing its corporate structure (and possibly adding a non-China HQ) after skepticism from the US government on its Chinese connections
  • Cruise: Rivals Royal Caribbean and Norwegian team up to develop safety standards for cruising again.

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Friday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Apple and Beyond Meat

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Pinterest has a half-billion monthly active users, notches best day in years

Pinterest shares surged by roughly 20% Wednesday, posting their biggest gain in three years following its release of strong earnings results. It was the biggest single day rise for the stock in over three years, Bloomberg says.

Q1 sales jumped 22.8%, the fastest since 2021. Monthly active users hit a record 518 million. The company still lost money, though it narrowed to its loss to $24 million, from $209 million during the first quarter last year.

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The Federal Reserve kept its target monetary policy rate unchanged, and noted “a lack of further progress” toward getting inflation down to its 2% target. Stocks and bonds were relatively unchanged on the announcement.

But they rose after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-statement news conference, in which he seemed to discount the chance that the Fed could move to rate hikes soon.

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Novo Nordisk’s market cap is bigger than Denmark’s entire economy

Something is shapely in the state of Denmark.

Thanks to the success of its diabetes and obesity drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, drugmaker Novo Nordisk is now Europe’s most valuable company. It’s especially having outsized effects on its home country of Denmark, where its market cap of over $570 billion trumps the country’s GDP.

“Without Novo’s contribution, the Danish economy would have stagnated,” Bloomberg reports.

Novo Nordisk therefore is having broad effects on myriad aspects of life in Denmark, from educational priorities to immigration policy to job availability to mortgage rates. As goes Novo Nordisk, so goes the nation. That means if the drugmaker’s finances go south, so will Denmark’s.

“Without Novo’s contribution, the Danish economy would have stagnated,” Bloomberg reports.

Novo Nordisk therefore is having broad effects on myriad aspects of life in Denmark, from educational priorities to immigration policy to job availability to mortgage rates. As goes Novo Nordisk, so goes the nation. That means if the drugmaker’s finances go south, so will Denmark’s.

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Crypto

Binance founder CZ’s prison sentence hasn’t stopped an uptick in trading on the exchange

Yesterday, the founder and former chief executive of Binance was finally sentenced to 4 months in prison. The ruling marked the end of a multi-year investigation in which the crypto magnate — Changpeng Zhao, widely known as CZ — pleaded guilty to violating American anti-money laundering requirements.

The crux of the investigation was that Binance had failed to report more than 100K suspicious transactions, including some with obvious ties to terrorist groups. Prosecutors had been seeking a sentence of 3 years for the billionaire, who will retain the bulk of his wealth despite paying $100M in criminal and civil fines.

Founded in 2017, Binance continues to operate under new leadership with little evidence that the investigation into its founder and former CEO has diminished appetite for traders on the Binance exchange. Data from The Block reveals that 40-50% of monthly crypto exchange volumes go through Binance.

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The crux of the investigation was that Binance had failed to report more than 100K suspicious transactions, including some with obvious ties to terrorist groups. Prosecutors had been seeking a sentence of 3 years for the billionaire, who will retain the bulk of his wealth despite paying $100M in criminal and civil fines.

Founded in 2017, Binance continues to operate under new leadership with little evidence that the investigation into its founder and former CEO has diminished appetite for traders on the Binance exchange. Data from The Block reveals that 40-50% of monthly crypto exchange volumes go through Binance.

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Cannabis ETFs get high on DEA reclassification news

The Biden admin is moving to weaken restrictions on cannabis, according to a report by the Associated Press.

Marijuana has been classified as a Schedule I drug (on par with heroin) since the Controlled Substances Act was first signed in 1970.

This change would make cannabis, which is recreationally legal in 24 states, a Schedule III drug (on par with anabolic steroids). The shift, which isn't finalized, would likely give a significant boost to the $35B legal cannabis industry through changes to its tax status.

Cannabis stocks and ETFs soared on the news.

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Tesla lays off charging team

Tesla laid off practically the entire 500-person team that runs the company’s Supercharger network, the Information reported.

The network is considered a “crown jewel” and a competitive advantage compared with other carmakers, which have recently cut deals with Tesla to use the network.

It’s not clear yet where that leaves Tesla’s plans to build a 1,800 mile charging corridor for semi trucks, but it also laid off the public policy team, which had failed to get $100 million in federal funding for the project.

It’s certainly bad news for people trying to take long roadtrips with their Teslas. “We will continue to build out some new Supercharger locations, where critical, and finish those currently under construction,” Musk wrote in a memo on the layoffs.

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It’s certainly bad news for people trying to take long roadtrips with their Teslas. “We will continue to build out some new Supercharger locations, where critical, and finish those currently under construction,” Musk wrote in a memo on the layoffs.

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It’s a good time to be an AI startup

While the tech industry generally keeps its belt tightened, investors are still going gaga over anything to do with AI, according to the Wall Street Journal.

That’s meant plowing money into startups that don’t even have products, let alone revenue, fueling concerns of a bubble. That money buys a whole lot of chips.

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