"Tortoise and the Hare" vibes... In the race for a Covid-19 vaccine, there are two winners (so far). First came Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine: the first to gain emergency use authorization in the US — and the first mRNA vaccine ever green-lit for human use. Four days later, Moderna's mRNA vax crossed the authorization finish line. Johnson & Johnson lagged behind, still in trials with its OG vaccine (read: not mRNA). But that could change...
Slow and steady wins the race?... If J&J's vax moves forward, it could have an outsize impact on the overall US rollout — which (so far) has been slow. Just over 44M doses have been distributed, and barely 1% of Americans have been fully vaccinated. Here's why J&J could speed things up:
The prize might not be financial... The J&J vaccine could be a game-changer for the world, but it probably won't be one for J&J's wallet (or its stock). Unlike Moderna and Pfizer, which are selling their vaccines for profit, J&J has pledged to sell the vaccine "at cost" (no profit). Also: J&J is already a massive company that brought in ~$83B in sales and ~$15B in profit last year — a Covid vaccine might not make a huge difference. Meanwhile, it's Moderna's first (and only) product. That could be why Moderna's stock is up ~570% over the past year, while J&J's is up just 15%.