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Casper jumps* 13% on its IPO day (*after its valuation had been slashed in half)

Snacks / Thursday, February 06, 2020

Can you get night sweats in the daytime?... Casper shares jumped 13% on 2020's biggest IPO yet. The pioneer of Direct-to-Consumer mattresses wants to make the "sleep economy" a thing (like fetch) — yesterday's IPO had more nightmarish vibes. A month ago, Casper was worth $1.1B. Today, it's worth $500M. These 5 numbers from its IPO paperwork caused that:

  • $92M = Its (growing) loss in 2019
  • $80M = The money it lost specifically on returned/refunded/discounted mattresses
  • $423M = The amount it's dropped on marketing since 2016
  • 201 vs 9 = How many times Casper mentioned "brand" vs "profitable" in that S-1 paperwork

You've heard of "private" and "public" markets... But there's actually a subtle 3rd market that touches companies in the short window before their IPO — We're calling it the "Pre-Public Market," and it's what messed with Casper.

  1. The Private Market: These are the private Venture Capital firms that stuck money into the startup since 2014 to drive its valuation to $1.1B as you were tempted by Facebook ads to buy its California King.
  2. The Public Market: These are the public retail investors (like you and us) who brought its stock up 13% yesterday after the IPO.
  3. The Pre-Public Market: These are the institutional investors who got to hear Casper's roadshow pitch in the short month leading up to the IPO — between the Private and Public Markets.
  4. Casper was forced to lower its stock price by 55% in order to get those institutional investors to bite, dropping its valuation to $490M just before yesterday's IPO.

This just shocked the entire Direct-to-Consumer startup industry... Warby Parker glasses. Allbirds shoes. Away suitcases. Glossier cosmetics. Rent The Runway clothing. These DTC unicorns have been itching to IPO themselves — and they're all valued around $1B. Casper's sad debut could mess with their next private fundraise or maybe even make them rethink IPOs (like trying to get acquired instead).

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