Monday Dec.06, 2021

💉 Enter: Plan Omicron

It’s always sunny in the metaverse [Plug Pattarin via Getty Images]
It’s always sunny in the metaverse [Plug Pattarin via Getty Images]

Hey Snackers,

If your Spotify Wrapped doesn’t include sea chanteys and playlists for plants, did you even Spotify? The streaming service recently revealed the weirdest music trends of the year, and apparently your ficus loves Frank Ocean.

Stocks closed higher to kick off the week as investors digested early data that suggests Omicron may be causing milder illness than initially feared. But it could take weeks for scientists to understand its effects.

Cron

Plan Omicron: How Biden and vax makers are prepping to tackle the new variant

Doesn’t roll off the tongue... “Omicron” is living rent-free in investors' minds. Markets have been on edge since the new Covid variant was identified in South Africa late last month. Omicron has since been detected in 20+ countries, including the US, which reported cases in at least 16 states. Some infected people were fully vaxxed. Experts said it would take weeks to assess Omicron’s severity, but here's what we do know:

  • Most Omicron cases have been mild so far. The WHO’s chief scientist said existing vaccines were likely to offer some protection.
  • Omicron is spreading more than twice as quickly as Delta in South Africa, and accounts for the bulk of new cases there.
  • FYI: Several Covid variants have been identified, but Delta and Omicron are the only “variants of concern” so far.

Crank out the test tubes... Biden said he doesn’t expect to impose more lockdowns or vax mandates this winter, but he's working with vax makers on plans for Omicron-specific doses in case they're needed. BioNTech's founder said Omicron is unlikely to cause severe illness in vaxxed people, but Moderna’s CEO said it could make shots much less effective. How vax makers are prepping:

  • Pfizer and BioNTech, Moderna, and J&J have already started working on Omicron-specific shots, in addition to testing the protection of existing ones. Pfizer and Moderna say an Omicron-focused vaccine could be ready in under 100 days.
  • Financial boosters: Vaccines can translate into big profits. Moderna made $7.3B in profit on $11.3B in vax sales in the first nine months of this year. Pfizer, which is also selling vaccines at a profit, expects $36B in 2021 Covid vax sales.

Better safe than sorry… Dr. Fauci said existing boosters would likely protect against a wide variety of variants. But there are still a number of unknowns. If Omicron is severe, it could slow economic recovery, depress markets, and exacerbate supply problems — as Delta did. Dozens of countries, including the US, have already imposed Omicron-fueled travel restrictions, while vax makers prep new shots. It’s better to be overly prepared when public health is at stake: US Covid deaths this year recently surpassed 2020's toll.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching...

Anchoring your digital yacht… next to your virtual mansion. From virtual Gucci bags to digital plots of land, people have been pouring money into metaverse possessions. A meta-yacht sold for a record $650K last week, while a virtual developer bought a property from gaming company Atari for $4.3M. The market for real estate in digital worlds like Decentraland and Sandbox is growing: Some developers have even built and rented out digital malls. But experts warn the digital real-estate market is far riskier than actual real estate given crypto’s volatility.

No coal in the stocking… As if gas prices weren’t enough, coal prices have hit a 10-year high. That could make it hard for some to warm their homes this winter. While natural gas has replaced coal as the US’s main source of energy, demand for coal has held steady this year. As the world moves away from fossil fuels, nuclear energy — which provides 20% of the US’s juice — is gaining traction. A Bill Gates-backed startup, Commonwealth Fusion, just raised $1.8B. And the EU might allow certain nuclear investments to be labeled as “green.”

Events

Coming up this week…

Sports-bra stand-off… Lockdowns may be over, but the leggings life isn’t. Lululemon’s sales soared 63% last quarter as shoppers visited Lulu’s digital and physical stores for stretchy tanks. Lulu’s on track to exceed its 2023 sales goals this year. But it's not all peace and vinyasa: Last week, Lulu sued Peloton over its “copycat” yogawear. And it has a fledgling revenue stream to grow: Lulu bought connected-fitness company Mirror for $500M. We’ll see whether the athleisure life is still revving when it reports on Thursday.

Just binged “Selling Sunset”… The housing market is still #thriving, with the median US home price hitting a record $360K last month. The boom has been good for the US’s largest homebuilders, including Lennar, Pulte Group, and Toll Brothers. US home sales are on track for their best year in more than a decade, and homes for sale just hit a new low. That translated into record income for Toll last quarter. But home building has cooled since peak pandemic, while rising costs for materials like lumber have pushed homebuilders to raise prices. We’ll see if that bruised Toll when it reports earnings tomorrow.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

  • Ping: SpaceX CEO Elon Musk warned employees that the rocket startup could face bankruptcy if it doesn’t ramp up production of its Raptor engines — but his SOS seems mostly to be a move to drive results.
  • Namaste: Jack Dorsey stepped down last week as Twitter CEO to focus on being the full-time CEO of Block (fka: Square), letting Twitter join the ranks of tech titans like Amazon and Google that have also ditched their founders to evolve.
  • Woolly: Allbirds saw huge demand for its eucalyptus-pulp-infused sustainable sneakers in its first-ever earnings report — but it needs to grow its customer base if it wants to turn a profit.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Solo: Being single in the US is more expensive than being in a relationship, even though more people are single or living solo than ever. Housing, healthcare, taxes, and Social Security all play a role.
  • Wrap: How to shop for holiday gifts without wasting money — because “your order has been delayed” is the catchphrase of 2021. For starters: Shop locally.
  • Play: High demand for hard-to-find video-game consoles has led to brawls at retailers, and a cottage industry of bot-makers, scalpers, and YouTubers.

This Week

  • Monday: Earnings expected from: GitLab, MongoDB, and HealthEquity
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from: AutoZone and Stitch Fix
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from: Toll Brothers, UiPath, GameStop, Restoration Hardware, Campbell Soup Company, Udemy, The Lovesac Company, Rent the Runway, and The Duckhorn Portfolio
  • Thursday: Weekly jobless claims. Earnings expected from: Oracle, Costco, Broadcom, Lululemon, Chewy, Dave & Buster's, and National Beverage Corp.
  • Friday: November Consumer Price Index. Earnings expected from: Johnson Outdoors

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Amazon, Moderna, Pfizer, Twitter, Square, and Google

ID: 1945770

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Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.