Negotiated

A Trade Peace: the USMCA is about to replace NAFTA for the US, Canada, & Mexico

Snacks / Tuesday, December 10, 2019

A Democrat, a Republican, and President Trump walk into a bar... and actually agree on something. Nancy Pelosi announced that her House of Reps would support the USMCA: The consonant-heavy trade treaty between the US, Mexico, and Canada that the President signed in November last year. It takes awhile, but this bill should become law by January (quick reminder on how that works).

Stick one of those huge red bows on this car deal... Markets celebrated the kumbaya progress on trade cooperation. If you're CEO'ing a company, now you've got certainty on how much cross-border business will cost you (at least within North America). But the USMCA majored in cars (and it's obsessed with them):

  • It requires that 30% of workers on a car sold in the US be paid at least $16/hour. That means more work for higher-paid US & Canadian workers and less for lower-wage Mexican ones.
  • That also means the price of cars will rise, especially adorable sedans that are mainly made in Mexico (they'll be tariffed unless they achieve that minimum wage requirement).
  • In non-car news, US farmers producing dairy, eggs, and turkeys can finally sell up north into Canada now. Great, eh?

Trade is good, when done right... Econ 101 = Trade benefits consumers and businesses. Countries should produce whatever they've got a competitive advantage in. From cars to microwaves, Mexico and China have been winning more factories and jobs — American consumers benefited from lower prices and American companies benefited from higher profits. The failure has been in government policy, which hasn't helped US workers who lost manufacturing jobs as a result. This USMCA deal focuses on supporting them (and it does).

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