Friday Nov.13, 2020

🎤 Live Nation's (COVID-free) live summer

_"I said I want to do it live!"_
_"I said I want to do it live!"_

Hey Snackers,

2006: Kazakhstan wants to sue Borat creators in outrage over the film. 2020: "Very nice!" becomes the new slogan of Kazakhstan's tourism campaign.

Markets dipped yesterday. US jobless claims fell to a seven-month low last week, but the pace of improvement is slowing.

Rock

Live Nation wants to become the TSA of concerts to make sure 2021 is live

Ariana Grande fans are having withdrawal... and concert giant Live Nation is saying "thank u, next" to 2020 (48 more days). Live Nation's sales were down 95% last quarter because it was 0% live. The previous quarter was even worse, since festival season was cancelled (#Nochella). Still...

  • 83% of concert-goers kept their tickets for rescheduled shows last quarter, keeping Live Nation's refund rate low. It still lost over $1B since January.
  • Live Nation has already sold 19M tickets to 4K+ concerts scheduled for 2021, so it's invested in them actually happening.

Do I have to take off my shoes?... Live Nation's Ticketmaster unit is reportedly working on a TSA-like plan to go live. Ticketmaster wants to check your COVID status before you step foot in its venues.

  • After buying a ticket, you verify that you've been vaccinated OR that you've tested negative for COVID-19 no more than three days before the concert.
  • Your test results get delivered to a health pass company like CLEAR. If you test negative, CLEAR tells Ticketmaster you're good to rock.

This could be a framework for all live gatherings... Live Nation wants to lead the "Return to Live." A vaccine could be widely available by April, as Dr. Fauci suggested following the promising Pfizer news. But until enough Americans get vaccinated (could be a while), Live Nation will have to prove it can operate safely enough. If it succeeds, others like Eventbrite could follow.

Subscribe

Ford is betting big on a data-driven electric version of its Transit van

But does it have Ludicrous mode?... Ford is working on an electric version of its classic Transit model. The nearly-windowless van reminds you of a sketchy UberPool — it's actually the top-selling van in America, used by companies for jobs like plumbing and delivery. Now Ford wants to give it some sex appeal...

  • The e-Transit will start at $45K and is set to drop in 2021. It could attract businesses looking to save on fuel costs. Also...
  • Maintenance costs will be 40% lower over eight years for the electric vs. the gas version, according to Ford (no oil changes).

It's not just about electric wheels... Ford's also making a subscription play with digital add-ons to help customers track and manage their fleets. Currently, it charges $20 to $25 per vehicle/month for those services. It's expanding those offerings with the new e-fleets:

  • Driver-coaching: Remember those "How's my driving?" bumper stickers? This is like the techy version of that. Voice commands nag drivers if they're speeding or idling for too long (fuuun).
  • Juice check: Owners can remotely check how much charge each van has left, or preprogram them to recharge when rates are lower.

Subs could be Ford's future profit puppy... With recurring revenue from digital subscriptions, Ford can continue to profit off your purchase even after it sells you the car. Companies are obsessed with data because it helps them run more efficiently: if Ford can save companies money with these connected data services, companies could be willing to pay extra.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Mickey: Disney's quarterly loss wasn't as bad as expected, and Disney+ has more than 73M paid subscribers barely a year after launch.
  • Vax: American pharma Pfizer struck a deal with the EU to initially charge Europe less for its COVID-19 vaccine than the US.
  • Banner: Facebook and Google reportedly extend their ban on political ads for weeks after the election — because: there's still a lot happening.
  • Helicool: German aviation start-up Lilium snagged a deal with Orlando, FL to launch a US hub for flying taxis.
  • Low: US airline employment will reportedly fall to the lowest level in nearly 40 years as 90K jobs are cut this year.
  • Womp: Google Photos will end its free unlimited storage on June 1st, 2021 after five years of offering it.

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Friday

Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Apple, Disney, and Google

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Do you want to run the State Department of McDonald’s?

A couple of days ago, a tweet making fun at McDonald’s hiring a “Manager for Diplomatic Relations” went viral.

At first glance, the idea that McDonald’s, a burger franchise known for its double quarter pounders and perfectly salted fries, is expanding its diplomatic influence with policy makers in Foggy Bottom and the world at large sounds comical. But it’s actually crucial.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

There are more than 40,000 McDonald’s locations spread across 115 countries around the world, and 90% of these stores are independently owned and operated franchises that pay royalties to the parent organization to operate. Tens of thousands of franchises operated by different owners with different beliefs, priorities, and values can get complicated, fast.

As we noted in Snacks in February, McDonald’s received heavy backlash from franchisees in countries including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Pakistan after McDonald’s Israel donated thousands of free meals to IDF personnel. But it wasn’t McDonald’s, as an entity, that made the donations. It was the owner of the company’s Israel franchises, who was acting under his own volition.

Nuke stocks up on AI excitement

For most of humanity, the thought of “nuclear-powered AI” sends a shiver down the spine. But the stock market is all for it! Just check out the list of top performing S&P 500 stocks this year. Just behind established AI plays — Super Micro Computer and Nvidia, you’ll find Constellation Energy, the largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S. NRG Energy, which also operates nuclear plants, isn’t far behind. Bloomberg reports that CEO of power distributor Exelon — which spun off Constellation in 2022 — says in the Chicago area alone, AI could drive a 900% jump in demand for energy from data centers.

Tech

China makes Apple remove WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram from app store

In its latest move to restrict foreign tech, Beijing has ordered Apple to remove a number of popular messaging apps from its app store there, including WhatsApp, Threads, Signal and Telegram.

These apps had only been available through VPNs but were popular nonetheless, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Apple said the Chinese government asked them to remove the apps in the iPhone maker’s second biggest market over “national security concerns.” Last week, China told its state-owned telecoms to phase out the use of US chips by 2027.

Business

Tesla's recall reveals just how bad Cybertruck delivery numbers have been

Thanks to a recall of Tesla’s Cybertrucks, we now know how many of them have actually been delivered: 3,878 since the EV company began releasing them to customers in November.

In its third and fourth quarter earnings report, Tesla said that its current Cybertruck production capacity was greater than 125,000 a year. Musk had previously said he expected to produce 250,000 Cybertrucks a year by 2025.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

Either way, that’s a lot more than the roughly 775 it’s delivered each month so far.

The recall is over an issue with the gas pedal pad that, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration says when pressed, “may dislodge, which may cause the pedal to become trapped in the interior trim above the pedal.” The cause of the issue: “unapproved” soap that the manufacturer used to aid in getting the pad on the pedal.

A Cybertruck customer this week posted a TikTok about a terrifying incident in which this happened and “held the accelerator down 100%” in his 6,000+ pound vehicle. Thanks to some quick thinking where he held down the brake and put it in park, he wasn’t injured.

This is the long-awaited Cybertruck’s second recall since it came out five months ago.

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Markets

Cocoa hits $11,000

Cocoa prices are breaking records on an almost daily basis — with cocoa futures closing at (another) all-time high of $11,020 per metric ton yesterday.

That’s up 158% since the start of the year, and over 4x on the typical prices seen in 2022 — as crop production continues to fall short of demand.

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices

Major cocoa-producing nations like the Ivory Coast and Ghana, which between them grow about two-thirds of the world’s cocoa, have seen excessive tree failure due to disease, changing weather patterns, and hot, dry conditions causing devastating droughts.

As such, consumers are starting to see the effects of the largest cocoa supply deficit in over 60 years: “shrinkflation” and reduced-cocoa recipes might soon hit your favorite chocolate bars, and Hershey stock was recently downgraded. Unfortunately, the worst may still be yet to come: the International Cocoa Organization expects production to lag behind demand by 374,000 tons for the 2023-24 season.

Cocoa prices
Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing a US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, it means that Uncle Sam loses more than 2 cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
Business
Rani Molla
4/18/24

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.