Monday Feb.01, 2021

💵 The money pipes

"_It's not you, it's iOS 14"_
"_It's not you, it's iOS 14"_

Hey Snackers,

It’s been a wild week for the investing world. Here at Robinhood Snacks, our goal is to make financial news and the markets digestible (aka: snacky).

Since Robinhood acquired MarketSnacks and launched Robinhood Snacks two years ago, we’ve had a consistent policy of not covering Robinhood as the primary subject of a story (more on our Editorial Principles here).

So we’re continuing to cover one of the biggest market trends in decades, and referencing Robinhood in the context of these wider events.

BTW: Black History Month begins today. Sign up for our daily newsletter to receive our upcoming BHM coverage.

Trade

The “mainstreamification” of investing spotlights the plumbing behind markets

ICYMI... But that's unlikely. On Friday, we covered how social-fueled stock surges have thrown the market into uncharted territory. Last week, underdog “meme” stocks like GameStop, AMC, and Nokia skyrocketed, thanks to Reddit-inspired buying campaigns. From Wednesday through Friday, multiple brokerages limited — and in some cases, paused — the buying frenzy.

  • Robinhood, E-Trade, Webull, and others temporarily restricted certain trading activity in symbols like GME. Disclosure: Robinhood Snacks is owned by... Robinhood.
  • Some brokerages raised margin requirements for those stocks to mitigate risk. Margin = the percentage of the purchase investors need to fund themselves (rather than borrow).
  • Unsurprisingly, the price of those restricted shares dropped. Some investors were angry, shocked, and confused. And retail investing dominated the social conversation like never before.

Demystify the jargon... Brokers cited financial and regulatory reasons for these moves. Here’s what actually happens when you place a trade, and some of the requirements brokerages face (for a Robinhood-specific explainer, check out Robinhood’s blog):

  • When you buy a coffee with your card, you see the transaction on your account right away. But Starbucks still hasn’t received your $$$ — it can take a few days to move. Similarly...
  • When you buy a stock, you may see the transaction immediately. But you actually pay and get the shares two days after you buy. That’s because...
  • All transactions have to go through "settlement" to make sure that sellers actually get paid, and buyers receive securities. AKA: to ensure everyone involved can really deliver.
  • Clearinghouses, which are regulated by the SEC, ultimately ensure that trades get settled. Brokers often need to deposit cash to meet day-to-day collateral requirements with clearing firms, in order to back customer trades.
  • When buying becomes concentrated in a handful of volatile stocks, risk increases for everyone involved. So clearinghouses can ask firms for more cash deposits, to mitigate risk to the system.
  • Those deposit requirements for brokers can dramatically jump based on how many risky/volatile stocks customers are buying. Wild stat: industry-wide collateral requirements reportedly rose to $33.5B on Thursday, from $26B on Wednesday.

Last week surprised nearly everyone... because it was unprecedented. Mass “meme stock” buying campaigns significantly increased collateral deposit requirements on those stocks, which led to industry-wide trading restrictions... on those stocks. And retail investing reached a new level of social relevance. As the “mainstreamification” of investing continues, the “plumbing” powering the system will become more and more relevant to individual investors, too.

Highs

Who's up

You used to call me on my iPhone (12).... Apple crossed the $100B quarterly sales mark for the first time, bringing in a ginormous $111B last quarter. That's nearly 3X Facebook and Tesla's quarterly sales combined. The most valuable company on Earth made $28.8B in profit, one of the largest quarterly profits for any company (ever). Every product category saw double-digit sales growth. iPhone sales, which make up over half of the Fruit's total sales, soared 18% after two years of declines. The 5G-enabled 12 inspired a wave of fresh upgrades.

Still goin' ad on you, anyway... Despite all the regulatory and public scrutiny, Facebook posted an expectation-beating $28B in sales last quarter, proving that advertising is alive and well. Ad sales soared 31% from a year earlier, making up 97% of FB's total sales. Monthly users across apps jumped to 3.3B (aka: nearly half of all humans). But Apple ruined some of the earnings fun (claaassic): privacy changes to iOS 14 could hurt FB's precious ad-targeting abilities.

Lows

Who's down...

Max loss... Boeing shares fell 6% for the week, after the plane-maker posted a record loss of nearly $12B last year. Refresher: Boeing's 737 Max jets were grounded for nearly two years following two fatal crashes. For basically all of 2020, they were sitting in parking lots burning cash. Meanwhile, the pandemic sapped demand for Boeing's other jets, too —  especially its newest plane, the 777X, which is meant for long-haul flights. It was supposed to roll out this year — now Boeing doesn't expect it'll debut until 2023 (read: expensive delay).

A sweet cream Cold Brew... to ease the pain. Starbucks shares dropped 7% last week, after the caffeinated legend revealed that dining restrictions hurt its biz (shocker). While you were whipping up Keurig cups and instant coffee at home, Starbs' sales fell a worse-than-expected 5% last quarter — and profit plunged 30% from a year earlier. Despite that, Starbucks' mobile-order game was strong: app orders increased nearly 50% since the start of the pandemic.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Think: 10 powerful ideas that can shape your entire life.
  • Live: There are two kinds of happy people — but neither is perfect.
  • Watch: 91 movies and TV shows to stream during Black History Month.
  • Live: The one thing you'll regret at 80, according to Jeff Bezos (FYI: he's 57).
  • Believe: Four psychological habits to build better self-esteem.
  • Wear: Why some people like wearing masks (besides the obvious).

This Week

  • Monday: Black History Month begins. Earnings expected from Nintendo and Warner Music Group
  • Tuesday: Earnings expected from Amazon, Google, Chipotle, Pfizer, Exxon, and UPS
  • Wednesday: Earnings expected from Spotify, PayPal, and Sony
  • Thursday: Weekly jobless claims. Earnings expected from Snap, Pinterest, Ford, and Clorox
  • Friday: January unemployment rate released

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Apple and Starbucks

ID: 1504485

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Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

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Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.