Wednesday Nov.30, 2022

🐦 Elon’s Apple beef

Elon’s core Apple problem (STR/NurPhoto/Getty Images)
Elon’s core Apple problem (STR/NurPhoto/Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Cryptopreneurs may be leaving Miami, but the city's mayor said he's still taking paychecks in bitcoin despite crypto winter. His wallet must feel cold.

Stocks ticked down yesterday as investors awaited Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Brookings today — his last major scheduled speech before the next rate-setting meeting in mid-December. Investors are hoping for less hawkish policy in their stockings.

Blue

As Twitter tries to subscription-ize its biz model, Elon Musk takes on Apple's "app tax"

Elon is tech’d off with Apple… and (as usual) he’s taken the beef to Twitter. On Monday the billionaire CEO posted a series of tweets accusing Apple of everything from threatening free speech to not being transparent about its censorship practices. But Elon’s core issues with Apple might be financial:

  • Ad spend: Elon said Apple has “mostly stopped” advertising on Twitter. FYI: Apple was Twitter’s #1 advertiser in Q1 of this year, spending a reported $48M in that quarter alone.
  • App spend: Elon also criticized Apple’s “app tax,” the ~30% cut of in-app purchases, downloads, and subs that Apple takes across apps in its store.
  • Now: Elon said Apple is threatening to remove Twitter from the App Store “but won’t tell us why.” Apple typically revokes App Store access when companies violate its policies.

Battle of the MVPs… Musk wants to make Twitter profitable and diversify revenue beyond ads, which make up 90% of Twitter's sales (but have been sagging). Last year Twitter launched its Twitter Blue subscription, which includes perks like early access to new features (think: tweet-editing). This month, Twitter hiked the price of the sub to $8/month — and made it a requirement for users who want to gain the coveted blue checkmark. But Apple's 30% cut could strike a blow to Twitter’s non-ad sales — and its goal of doubling revenue by 2023.

Choose your enemies wisely… On the one hand, Elon has a lot of support on his side against Apple’s app tax: developers like Fortnite maker Epic Games, Spotify, and Tinder parent Match have criticized the fees (and launched legal battles against Apple). On the other hand, antagonizing the world’s most valuable company — which makes the smartphones that millions use to browse Twitter — could have negative consequences.

Uncoal

For the first time in 30 years, Congress steps in to avert a disastrous holiday rail strike

Take the last train to Clarksville… if it’s running. A nationwide rail strike has been looming for weeks. It’s a big deal because trains play a critical role in hauling goods, food, and materials across the US. Railroads move 30% of the nation’s freight, and a weeklong strike could cost the country $1B. President Biden warned it could put the economy “at risk.”

  • Yesterday: Congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle vowed to pass legislation to prevent the strike. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Congress would have a bill ready by today.
  • For the sake of speed, they’ll vote on a tentative agreement that was previously hashed out in September. It would raise rail-worker wages by 24% by 2024. Eight unions voted to support it, but four didn’t (fully paid sick leave is a key sticking point). Hence the looming strike.

Dude, where’s my coal?... The last time Congress intervened to settle a nationwide rail dispute was 30 years ago. A holiday rail strike could be disastrous: halted train lines would freeze supply chains for key commodities like lumber and coal and aggravate inflation by driving up prices of consumer goods.

  • Bipartisan rarity: It seems as if both Dems and Republicans want to move fast to avoid a strike. A rail halt in the weeks leading up to Christmas = major doozy.
  • Pelosi said: “I don’t like going against the ability of unions to strike, but weighing the equities, we must avoid a strike.”

When shift hits the fan, alliances can shift… Biden has been a strong union backer, having previously argued against congressional intervention in labor disputes. But this week the president requested that Congress intervene to force a deal by passing legislation. Now hundreds of business groups are praising Biden while his usual allies (unions) are criticizing the move.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • iPay: Foxxcon said it was paying extra to employees who return to its factory in Zhengzhou, China. Workers walked out after they said the iPhone assembler had failed to pay them promised bonuses. The plant makes 70% of all iPhones.
  • AMCuts: AMC Networks (think: "Mad Men," "Breaking Bad") announced that it was laying off 20% of its employees and that its CEO had stepped down. It said streaming revenue hasn't made up for $$ lost to cord cutting.
  • ETruck: Lordstown Motors said it's delivering its first batch of 500 electric trucks after getting key regulatory approvals. The EV biz almost went bankrupt last year before Foxconn invested.
  • Pending: Home price growth slowed again in September as high mortgage rates depressed demand. Still, prices were up more than 10% on the year.
  • Thirsty: Alameda Research owes $55K+ to the Bahamas Margaritaville resort. The shuttered crypto-trading firm shared a founder with bankrupt exchange FTX, which alone may have 1M+ creditors.

Wednesday

  • Fed Chair Powell speaks at Brookings Institution
  • Earnings expected from Salesforce, Snowflake, Hormel, Splunk, Okta, XPeng, Box, Victoria’s Secret, Petco, and La-Z-Boy

Authors of this Snacks own: bitcoin and shares of Apple and Match

ID: 2615376

Get Your News

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Latest Stories

Markets

Chipotle continues to go on a tear, hitting a sales record

Hey it might not be the kind of AI stock investors are all hot and bothered over, but don’t sleep on the burrito business.

Chipotle posted much better-than-expected results on Wednesday, with sales rising 14% to a record $2.70B in the first quarter, which is like a billion additions of guac.

Profits jumped 23% to $359M.

Chipotle has quietly cruised higher over the last year. It’s up 63%, compared to the 24.5% gain for the S&P 500 over the 12 months through Wednesday’s close. Not bad for a rice-and-beans based business model.

Tech

Facebook had great earnings, the market hates it

Facebook reported impressive earnings. Record first-quarter revenue thanks to AI! Profit up 117% compared to a year earlier! But at the same time, its capital expenditures are going up and it’s expecting second quarter revenue potentially lower than analyst estimates. So in other words, the future doesn’t look as bright as the present.

All in all the stock is down more than 10%. (Basically the opposite of what happened with Tesla yesterday).

Business

Why Tesla investors are holding on to hope for a cheap car

Despite terrible earnings numbers last night — declining vehicle sales, disappointing revenue and profit, enormous spending — Tesla stock is up more than 10% as of midday. That’s a welcome move for the car company, that’s been among the worst performers this year in the S&P 500.

Why the about face?

While Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is no longer making its long-awaited $25,000 mass-market car — news sent the stock, already suffering from headwinds across the EV industry, down even further— Tesla reported during its earnings that it’s going to make cheaper cars than it currently has.

Before the second half of next year, Tesla said it will release “more affordable models” that “will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.”

So rather than release the $25,000 Model 2, Tesla is incorporating some of that technology into its existing models. UBS called it the Franken-3Y2.

Go Deeper with Market Depth

Nasdaq TotalView powers the need-to-know data serious investors rely on.

Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Job switchers and stayers

The FTC is banning non-compete clauses

Why that might make job switching even more lucrative

Your inbox is ready

Subscribe and thrive

Snacks provides fresh takes on the financial news you need to start your day. Chartr provides data visualizations on business, entertainment, and society. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Culture

Not so Gucci

French luxury fashion conglomerate Kering has seen its shares fall ~10% in the last 24 hours after reporting that sales at its flagship brand Gucci had dropped 21% in its latest quarter.

Kering’s other brands, which include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, fared slightly better — but the only real bright spot was the company’s eyewear division, where sales rose 24% (9% on a comparable basis).

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales

With Gucci responsible for roughly two-thirds of the company’s profit, the ongoing struggles of the brand are weighing heavily on the bottom line: the company expects recurring operating profit to drop 40-45% in the first six months of the year.

Gucci execs will be hoping that new designer Sabato de Sarno can turn the iconic brand’s fortunes around, particularly in China where demand has dropped precipitously. His designs only started hitting stores in February.

Gucci sales
Business

The FTC vs. Big Handbag

The Federal Trade Commission has sued to block big tech, big grocery, big vacuum, and now, big… “affordable luxury handbag.”

Yesterday, the FTC sued to block Tapestry Inc’s $8.5B acquisition of Capri holdings. The agency is worried that a merger between Tapestry, which owns the Coach and Kate Spade brands, and Capri, which owns Michael Kors, would eliminate competition in the market.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

The crux of the FTC's argument lies in the scope of the "accessible luxury" handbag market, where Tapestry competes with Michael Kors, with the FTC saying the following:

Where Tapestry and Capri most vigorously compete against one another – mainly between Tapestry’s Coach and Kate Spade brands against Capri’s Michael Kors brand – is in the “accessible luxury” handbag market. Today, Coach, Kate Spade and Michael Kors continuously monitor each other’s handbag brands to determine pricing and performance, and they each use that information to make strategic decisions, including whether to raise or lower handbag prices.

The deal would eliminate fierce head-to-head competition on many important attributes including on price, discounting, and design. Tens of millions of Americans that purchase Coach, Kade Spade, and Michael Kors products could face higher prices

While Capri and Tapestry are two of the largest players in this market, winning an antitrust case won't be so straightforward, as consumers have other options at similar price points, including Marc Jacobs (owned by competitor LVMH), Tory Burch, Cuyana, and Mansur.

Tesla had a good ride, but the stock’s price destruction is historic

Few people have created as much value as Elon Musk. The iconoclastic entrepreneur took Tesla from a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion at the time of its IPO in 2010 to $1.2 trillion in early 2023. That’s a return of about 55,000%. Musk made a lot of people a lot of money.

On the other hand, Tesla shares are down nearly 60% since their all-time peak. The company has ceded ground in EVs, prompting a series of profit crushing price cuts to preserve market share. The cumulative loss in market value over that period is pushing $800 billion. Few corporate executives have presided over such a degree of value destruction.

And it could get worse, as people are bracing for an ugly update when Tesla reports after the close Tuesday.

Tech
Rani Molla
4/23/24

Smaller AI models are in

Tech companies that have long touted the enormity of their AI models are now saying size doesn’t always matter.

Microsoft is the latest tech company to introduce smaller AI models, as part of its Phi-3 tech family. Last week Meta released two smaller models of its AI Llama 3 and earlier this year Alphabet did the same. All are open sourcing these models to encourage wider adoption.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.

Microsoft says its smallest model, which can fit on a smartphone and wouldn’t need to be connected to the internet to work, is nearly as good as OpenAI’s GPT-3.5. A Microsoft exec suggested this less expensive model could be a good fit for online advertisers, if not doctors.