When $6/gallon sounds like a steal... you know the pump anxiety is real. US fuel producers are on track to rake in record cash windfalls. The largest independent oil refiners — Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 — are poised to collectively make $14B from refining this quarter. Oil biggies like Valero start reporting this week, and the expected profit margins are wild:
But oily profit could be peaking... or may’ve already peaked. Summer is usually a busy driving season, but jaw-dropping gas prices are starting to keep Americans off the road. Drivers pumped 10% less fuel in the week ended July 9 compared to last year. Meanwhile, refineries are cranking at full capacity.
A recession could tank gas prices… And if the US isn’t already in one, it likely will be soon. Higher supply and lower demand are already pushing down gas prices — but a recession could tank them. Oil fuels the wheels of economic activity, and suffers when it slows: an economic downturn means less traveling, less spending, and less manufacturing. But for this year at least, refiners are on track for some banner profits.