Tuesday Jun.28, 2022

Corporate’s Roe response

Corporate holds court (Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Corporate holds court (Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Hey Snackers,

Possibly the most depressing corporate survey: Oracle found that nearly half of respondents haven’t felt true happiness in over two years — and one-quarter say they don’t know what true happiness feels like.

On that note: stocks ticked down after a relatively mild trading day. Compare that to Friday, when the S&P 500 posted its largest one-day percentage gain in two years.

Ruled

As nearly half of US states move to restrict or ban abortion, corporate behemoths are stepping in to offer employees support

The headline that no one missed… On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 landmark ruling that protected abortion as a federal right covered by the Constitution. Nearly half of US states have plans to quickly ban or limit abortion — and several already have. In order to legally terminate a pregnancy, women in those states will have to travel to states where abortion isn't criminalized. For many, this travel may not be an option.

Now corporate's stepping in... After the ruling, several large companies pledged to provide financial support for employees — and in some cases, even their dependents — who live in states where abortion's outlawed. The response has been swift:

  • Disney, Microsoft, Chase, and Levi were among those that said they'd cover employee travel expenses for abortions.
  • Citi, Salesforce, and Tinder-owner Match vowed to provide financial support for affected employees back in May, when the draft opinion was leaked.
  • Others like Apple, Netflix, and Uber say they already cover travel expenses for healthcare treatments, including abortion and gender-affirming care.
  • Some GOP lawmakers are considering ways to retaliate against companies which help cover medical and travel costs. Think: asking Congress to cancel its contract with Citi.

Corporations can try to be the 4th branch... of government. Companies are becoming increasingly active on social and political issues. That’s largely because many customers, employees, and investors no longer accept inaction. While companies don't have executive, legislative, or judicial power, they have financial influence — from where they choose to open offices, to where they put their $$. Duolingo already warned that it would limit expansion in places that outlaw abortion.

Seven

G7 leaders consider capping Russian oil prices to punish Putin — without punishing everyone else with extra 'flation

Loose collars… Still plenty of pressure. This year’s Group of 7 meeting, which wraps today in Germany, had a surprisingly casual dress code. The agenda: not-so-casual. President Biden and other leaders of the world’s wealthiest democracies spent three days debating how to punish Russian President Putin for his continued war in Ukraine — without punishing consumers. The details:

  • Oil be darned: The US already banned Russian oil imports, and the EU is phasing them out. But thanks to wild prices, Russia’s making even more $$ from oil than it did pre-Ukraine war.
  • Set the max: G7 leaders want to cap Russian oil prices to shrink Russia’s oil sales without shrinking global supply. Think: countries all agree to pay a lower price for Russian oil.
  • Going for the gold: The G7 needs other nations to participate for the price cap to succeed, and hasn’t finalized the plan. In the meantime, it’s banning Russian gold imports, which earned the country $15B last year.

IOU… Western sanctions are hurting Russia’s access to cash. On Sunday, Russia reportedly defaulted on $100M of foreign debt payments for the first time in a century — Putin denies it. But Russia’s economy has been relatively resilient: the ruble has rebounded and shelves have stayed stocked thanks to domestic production and increased trade with Turkey, India, and China — they’re snapping up Russian oil.

It’s a delicate balancing act… So far, Western sanctions haven’t shut down Russia’s economy or forced it to end its war. But if enough countries agree to participate in an oil-price cap, they could curb Russia’s oil sales immediately without hurting consumers. It’s not a risk-free strategy: if Russia cuts production in response to the cap, global oil prices could soar even higher.

What else we’re Snackin’

  • Bear: Banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley went on pandemic hiring sprees when markets and deals were booming. Now, a wave of Wall Street layoffs is likely as the bear market darkens forecasts.
  • Avo: Sweetgreen is gamifying its salad app with discount-based “rewards and challenges'' to drive lettuce loyalty. Digital orders made up 66% of its sales last quarter.
  • Blow: A Swiss court found Credit Suisse guilty of helping a Bulgarian crime syndicate launder cocaine money 14 years ago. The banking bigshot was ordered to pay the Swiss government $20M but plans to appeal.
  • Paged: Authors are protesting Amazon's e-book return policy, which lets readers cancel “accidental” orders within seven days. Writers say it lets customers finish their reads in a week for free.
  • Short: As the crypto meltdown continues, hedge funds are betting millions against Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin. Short sellers have been increasingly betting against it since TerraUSD collapsed.

Tuesday

  • G7 Summit in Germany
  • Earnings expected from Concentrix and Roivant Sciences

Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Disney, Uber, Match, and Netflix

ID: 2263868

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Latest Stories

Power

World out of balance: It costs the US 3¢ to make 1 penny

The cost of producing the US penny rose 13% in fiscal 2023 to 3.07 cents. Yes, that means that Uncle Sam loses more than two cents for every cent it produces. (And no, you can’t make it up on volume.)

For the record, that’s the 18th-straight year the penny’s face value has been below production costs, fueling calls for abolishing the lowest value denomination coin. Canada started to phase out the penny in 2013, joining Australia, Brazil, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, and Israel, according to Smithsonian Magazine.

3.07¢
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Scuba Diving in the Wild Blue Yonder in French Polynesia
Business

Netflix is going to stop sharing subscriber numbers

After posting subscriber numbers that beat expectations today, Netflix says it’s no longer going to share those numbers starting in the first quarter of 2025. That’s a big deal since subscriber numbers have long been one of the main metrics that investors have looked at.

“In our early days, when we had little revenue or profit, membership growth was a strong indicator of our future potential,” its shareholders letter read. “But now we’re generating very substantial profit and free cash flow.” The company said that it will focus on revenue and operating margin as its main financial metrics, while it will look at time spent on the platform to gauge customer satisfaction.

Another way to read this? They’ve hit market saturation and just aren’t going to be growing that much anymore, and they thought they’d end on a good note. Going forward they’re focusing on how to get more money out of the customers they do have.

They’re doing so by cracking down on password sharing and charging for extra members. They’re also pushing people to ad tiers, which are more profitable than non-ad tiers.

“Scaling ads to become a more meaningful contributor to our business in ‘25 and beyond,” Netflix said.

Netflix’s ads membership grew another 65% in Q1 over the previous one, after rising 70% the quarter before, and 40% of signups in ad markets continue to be for those ad plans.

Tech

Meta’s not telling where it got its AI training data

Today Meta unleashed its ChatGPT competitor, Meta AI, across its apps and as a standalone. The company boasts that it is running on its latest, greatest AI model, Llama 3, which was trained on “data of the highest quality”! A dataset seven times larger than Llama2! And includes 4 times more code!

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

What is that training data? There the company is less loquacious.

Meta said the 15 trillion tokens on which its trained came from “publicly available sources.” Which sources? Meta told The Verge’s Alex Heath that it didn’t include Meta user data, but didn’t give much more in the way of specifics.

It did mention that it includes AI-generated data, or synthetic data: “we used Llama 2 to generate the training data for the text-quality classifiers that are powering Llama 3.” There are plenty of known issues with synthetic or AI-created data, foremost of which is that it can exacerbate existing issues with AI, because it’s liable to spit out a more concentrated version of any garbage it is ingesting.

AI companies are turning to such data because there’s not enough good, public data on the entire internet to train their increasingly greedy AI models. (Meta had reportedly floated buying a publisher like Simon & Schuster to satisfy its insatiable data needs.)

Meta, of course, isn’t the only company that’s tight-lipped about where its AI data is coming from. In a now infamous interview with WSJ’s Johanna Stern, OpenAI’s chief technology officer Mira Murati was unable to answer questions about what Sora, OpenAI’s video generating app, was trained on. YouTube? Facebook? Instagram — she said she wasn’t sure.

Today’s earnings: Who’s making money edition

Here are some some notable numbers out this morning, as earnings season gathers steam. Thursday’s main event will be Netflix after the close of trading. (Keep an eye on its advertising business.) But until then...

7.13%

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage is back above 7%, according to weekly numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, the highest level in four months. High borrowing costs are creating havoc for would-be buyers, as affordability lingers at the low levels not seen consistently since the late 1980s.

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Business

Amazon’s spy ops on rivals: shell companies, printed docs, and a fake Japanese streetwear brand

Some companies check out rivals’ websites, stores and public filings to stay abreast of the competition. Amazon made its own fake shell company and brands, transacted hundreds of thousands of dollars per year undercover on competitors’ platforms, and kept its intel operation a secret for nearly a decade even from others at Amazon, according to a fascinating investigation by the Wall Street Journal.

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Working as a seller called Big River, a secret group of Amazon employees gained access to rival platforms, including Walmart, FedEx, and Alibaba. They used Big River email addresses and went to seller conferences as Big River employees. They even stayed hidden within Amazon itself. These employees would take screenshots of competitors’ systems that they would then show others at Amazon in person to avoid an email paper trail.

Perhaps most strange of all, the company created a fake Japanese streetwear brand called “Not So Ape” (clearly a play on A Bathing Ape) and continues to sell products from the brand on a Shopify store, presumably as an attempt to learn the inner workings of the shopping platform. Of course, copying is old hat for Amazon.

In meetings where they’d use this clandestine information to inform Amazon’s own business practices, the group resorted to literal paper. “[T]he team avoided distributing presentations electronically to Amazon executives. Instead, they printed the presentations and numbered the documents. Executives could look at the reports and take notes, but at the end of the meeting, team members collected the papers to ensure that they had all copies."

Crypto
Jack Morse
4/17/24

Worldcoin pivots to the blockchain… with a 'humans only' discount

Worldcoin, the “proof of personhood” crypto project launched by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, said it plans to launch its own ethereum layer-2 (L2) blockchain dubbed World Chain. The pitch: a blockchain where it’s both easier and cheaper for people to transact than bots.

Worldcoin has made waves for its iris-scanning metallic orb that promises a future where people can mathematically prove they’re real humans and not AI bots.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

But it’s run into trouble: the orbs have been banned across Europe and Africa, and the associated WLD crypto token has plunged 50% over the past month.

For project insiders, who reportedly received a token allocation of 25% of supply, that could equal significant losses. 

Which is what may make World Chain attractive. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched its own L2, Base, last year. Base has since seen rapid user growth — activity that’s generated the exchange millions of dollars in weekly fees

Worldcoin could benefit from similar revenue if its L2 is adopted around the world.

Business

Smooth sailing? Not for superyachts

Sales of the luxury boats sank 17% last year. Meanwhile, Super-SUPER yachts (over 650 feet long) took the biggest sales dip, falling around 40%. Part of the problem: a pandemic-era backlog has led to a three- to four-year waitlist for new yacht orders. Meanwhile Russian oligarchs — former MVP customers — are largely out of the boat-buying business due to sanctions.

Dr Martens shares have been stomped

American sales of Docs have dropped