Trying to calculate the new girl's APS score
Hey Snackers,
The business disruptions continue: Conferences (SXSW in Austin), in-person annual shareholder meetings (Starbucks' is online-only), and movie premieres (Bond, James Bond) are getting cancelled. Even March Madness could happen sans-fans.
Investors are suffering from motion sickness as stocks continue to swing daily β but the S&P 500 managed to inch up last week despite all the volatility.
Don't use it as a verb... Quibi wants to be a noun. The adorably-named mobile video startup β short for "quick bites" β just raised a not-so-adorable $750M in additional cash from its private investors (it hasn't IPO'd yet). That brings Quibi's total fundraise to a gargantuan $1.75B β and it doesn't even launch until April 6th:
If you bake it, will they eat?... Quibi's spending massively to cook up 8.5K bingeable bites in 2020 β and we just learned its 50 first shows (we're curious about the Barkitecture doghouse one). Quibi is betting big that these content cookies will be in high demand. We're calling it the "Anticipated Popularity Model." Can go 3 ways:
The proof is in (the other's) pudding... Quibi's APS (Anticipated Popularity Score) is really high β and for good reason. It's coming in at a time when short-video app TikTok has blown-up in popularity (over 1B users). On the streaming bench, Quibi sits between popular super-short vids (Snapchat, Instagram) and highly successful longer-form streamers (Netflix, Disney+). TBD whether Quibi's position in the middle will help or hurt it.
Have that in a 224-pack?... Costco unloaded better-than-expected earnings last week, fueled by "run-on-the-wholesalers" coronavirus stockpile shoppers β It's already struggling to meet demand for bleach, bottled water, and 24-packs of Clorox wipes. Viral virus shoppers boosted sales 3% β and that's after its online sales jumped 28% over the holidays.
Filling the Victoria's Secret void... American Eagle can thank its teen-centric loungewear brand, Aerie, for quarterly growth. Sales of AE's namesake brand were actually down 3%, but Aerie's surged 26% (bumping overall growth). Instead of extra-padded bras and airbrushed models, Aerie offers comfy bralettes and inclusivity campaigns. The same taste shift that hurt Victoria's drove Aerie's 21st-consecutive snuggly quarter of double-digit sales growth.
Enter 'high pun' here... Canopy Growth, Earth's largest cannabis company, isn't living up to the 2nd half of its name. It's firing 500 workers and shutting down 2 of its biggest cannabis-growing greenhouses (and cancelling plans to build another). The entire cannabis industry is coming down from a short-lived high: companies produced a ton of pot after legalization, only to realize demand wasn't at the same level as hoped. Now Canopy's left holding the (weed) bag.
Epic sinking streak... Carnival Cruise's stock has sunk 46% since mid-January, thanks to a disaster trifecta that includes 2 Carnival ships colliding and a quarantined ship with 700 coronavirus infections. Now, it's got another coronavirus-infected ship scheduled to dock today in Oakland. Still, Carnival's industry dominance and Americans' growing demand for cruises might help it weather these temporary (but massive) setbacks β sales have risen 7% annually since 2015.
Disclosure: Authors of this Snacks own shares of Slack, Disney, and Carnival Cruises
ID: 1112677